PTA Multi Set Reset, Resulting In A Sharp Fall In The Recent Price

Ningbo Yisheng 650 thousand tons PTA plant is scheduled to restart on the 21 night; Hua Bin Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand tons PTA plant plans to bring to full load in recent days; Liwan polyester 700 thousand tons PTA plant plans to restart near August 23rd... This week a number of sets of PTA device restart led to market sentiment decline.

Although the downstream polyester production and sales are warmer and the stock decline indicates that the demand for the terminal is gradually recovering, but in the atmosphere of the macro atmosphere, coupled with the recent PTA load increasing to around 91%, the supply side set up a number of devices to restart the bad market, resulting in a sharp fall in the price.

On Thursday, the PTA main period price dropped to 5014 yuan / ton, and the two day fell by nearly 4.3%.

Polyester production and sales obviously recovered, the terminal started to improve orders, restart the device so that PTA still failed.

The polyester market has been doing well in recent years, and the production and marketing level has obviously recovered. As of August 20th, the average production and sale level of the 15 day mobile factories in polyester factories has reached 87%, basically recovering to the same period last year. In recent years, Changshu Hengyi 160 thousand tons filament plant, Tongxiang new Feng Ming 200 thousand ton filament device and Jiangyin Cheng Xing 600 thousand tons bottle tablet device have increased load. As of last Friday, the polyester start up rate has reached 89% level. In addition, Jiaxing Hengbang four phase 300 thousand ton filament new device and Fujian Yi Jin 80 thousand ton short fiber new device has successfully driven.

Overall, the polyester plant has shown its expectations for the improvement of downstream demand in the three quarter. At present, the profit of various products in the polyester link is in a reasonable range. Initially estimated, the PET chip profit is 390 yuan / ton, polyester bottle piece 140 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber 205 yuan / ton, POY550 DTY540 / ton, polyester FDY340 yuan / ton, polyester polyester yuan / ton. Under the high profit pattern, the polyester load is still expected to increase. PTA's recent direct demand is generally optimistic.

In the terminal weaving Market, local orders have increased, such as Wujiang's elastic fabrics, window fabrics, chiffon fabrics and so on. Haining's velvet and ammonia super parts also have some weight, and new warp knitted velvet, polar fleece and Rome cloth are also available. Therefore, the overall Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms started to rise to 68%, lower 7%. As for loom, as the loom starts to recover and the profit of the additional part improves, the load added by Jiangsu and Zhejiang will increase by about 15%.

Although the downstream demand has been improving gradually and production and marketing has improved, there are several installations restarted in the PTA supply side recently, coupled with insufficient support from the cost side and the suppression of price formation.

Device reboot and production capacity is bad, who is the key to restricting market?

Based on the current PTA industry thousand processing fees, the market is expected to gradually reduce device maintenance. However, due to the reasons for the catalyst, the delay time for the suppliers is relatively limited. For last year's historical maintenance data, the inspection and repair capacity in August -10 months was 220, 220 and 5 million 800 thousand tons (excluding the enterprises that had stopped short in the year), and the PTA losses to the market were 90 thousand tons, 90 thousand tons and 240 thousand tons respectively.

Table 12019 PTA maintenance schedule for 8-10 months

Judging from the disk, the price is still suppressed in the far market, and prices in recent months showed a certain resilience on Wednesday. The market generally believed that the fourth quarter of the new capacity production (new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons of capacity) or the formation of the main force will be a bad oppression, so far months fell more than the recent market. Then, the market's bad influence on the main contract has basically been released.

Table 22019 new production capacity of polyester in the second half of the year

From the demand side, in the second half of the year, there are new plans for production capacity, including Tong Kun, Heng Yi and Xin Feng Ming. Although the overall profit level of polyester is generally shown in the year, there may be a delay in the market. But the first half of the new production capacity is mainly to expand production, the possibility of the factory put into operation is high, so there is a possibility of increasing demand.

Table 32019 PTA forecast of supply and demand balance in 8-10

Assuming that the new PTA capacity will be put into operation at the end of September, and stable production in October, after the deduction of the historical device maintenance, the overall supply side of PTA will have relatively limited space in the next 8-10 months.

Recently, the PTA market has been constantly hyped up and the game has intensified. The maintenance of the plant and the commissioning of the new device will continue to affect the nerves of the PTA market. Especially after the recent decline in prices, the spot market activity has improved, the downstream polyester factory buying mentality has obviously revival, it is expected that the market response, long-term storage and new production capacity and other negative impact or relatively short, we can see that the short-term PTA downside space is relatively limited. (source: Zhuo Chuang information and network)