Supply And Demand Pattern To See PTA Coming Winter

PTA market in recent 5100-5150 yuan shocks, the market supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, the lack of speculation. Fundamentally speaking, the PTA device load is high and the PTA price is suppressed. Downstream polyester load rose slightly, production and marketing improved under the promotion, just need good. The contradiction between supply and demand is not outstanding, and the maintenance of PTA devices becomes the key.

From the August PTA supply and demand balance sheet, PTA showed a slight pattern of deallocation. On the one hand, the overhaul plan of the PTA large-scale plant failed to arrive on schedule. In contrast, the short supply of small devices increased, and the load of Fuhai plant decreased, resulting in the overall supply in August lower than expected. On the other hand, the load of polyester plant increased from 84.05% at the beginning of the month to 89.37%, and at the same time, 900 thousand new tons of equipment (300 thousand tons of Heng Bang production line, 300 thousand tons of Heng Heng 2 production lines) were put into operation, and just needed to maintain stability.

Eight Monthly PTA maintenance schedule list

Source: lung Chung

The overhaul device accounts for 24.66% of the total capacity.

In view of the current PTA maintenance plan, the overhaul of the market is not yet clear. In contrast, 2 million 200 thousand tons of new Feng Ming and 4 tons of 2 million 500 thousand tons of Hengli Petrochemical have made quite a lot of information. As can be seen from the table below, the capacity of the overhaul is as high as 12 million 400 thousand tons, and most of them are concentrated in October, accounting for 24.66% of the total capacity. If Xin Feng Ming and Hengli Petrochemical can be put into operation on schedule, the impact of PTA plant maintenance on the market will be limited. If the new plant is postponed and the maintenance is scheduled, the PTA market will be driven back.

Two thousand and eighteen Maintenance schedule for PTA plant in 8-11

Source: lung Chung

Polyester terminal still has 2 million 480 thousand tons of new production expected.

In terms of polyester, the load is constantly rising, and the inventory pressure of factory finished products is not high, and the overall profit is also acceptable. In the aftermarket, Yisheng, Tong Kun, new Feng Ming and other enterprises have new capacity plans, and the new production is expected to be 2 million 480 thousand tons. According to the market situation, the probability of new production of polyester factories is larger, and some devices may be delayed. As a result, the demand for polyester for PTA increased slightly.

Two thousand and nineteen Year three or four polyester plant commissioning plan

Source: lung Chung

On the whole, PTA demand remains stable. If there are no major changes in the device, rigid demand will be the main requirement. The probability of PTA new plant being put into operation is steadily advancing. It is not only a matter of time before and after, but there are variables in the maintenance of the old plant. Assuming that the new PTA installation is on schedule and the historical installation is in normal repair, PTA will only be slightly redundant in the next 9-11 months. At present, the PTA processing fee is up to 950 yuan / ton, and this profit is also considerable for the factory.

The new industry is expected to enter the industry with a long-term mindset. The market price will not improve without the influx of large capital. Generally speaking, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not outstanding at present, and there is no hype theme.