2019 Scale Analysis: Lint Market Is Not Rising Or Falling, Seed Cotton Prices Are Rising.

At present, it has entered the September, and the rate of new flower picking has increased continuously, and the picking rate of cotton growers has increased. However, the scale is not ideal everywhere. The opening time in the mainland is obviously later than in previous years, and the purchase amount is not large. In the new and old alternation season, the lint market has not risen and fallen, while the cottonseed price has risen at a high level, and the market has changed more than before.

First, the new cotton scale starts later this year.

In previous years, the ginning plant started to weigh in earlier this year, and the scale up rate was obviously higher than that of this year. In the early August, the new cotton seeds could be traded in the early part of the mainland, but it is understood that the earlier this year was the Hebei ginning plant, and the opening time was in late August. Up to now, there are less than ten manufacturers in the hinterland mill, mostly distributed in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei and other places. The scale manufacturers are obviously less than in previous years. Currently, the ginning mills with a larger purchase amount are purchasing about 100 thousand jin a day, most of them are not purchasing large quantities, and there are fewer normal starting processors and orders.

Two, the price of new cotton scale is also lower than previous years.

It is understood that this year's opening price is the lowest in recent years. Since the beginning of 2012, the price of new cotton in the mainland has been above 3 yuan / Jin, but the price of the Chinese cotton mill has been hovering around the 3 yuan / Jin line this year. The purchase price of the new seed cotton in Shandong area is 2.90 to 3 yuan / jin (the lint is between 8 and 31%, and the moisture content is less than 15%). The purchase price of the new seed cotton in Hebei area is between 2 and 3 yuan. From the beginning of the scale to the present, the purchase price of new seed cotton in some areas is in a downward trend, with a reduction of 0.05 yuan / Jin line, and the lower cotton price is hardly acceptable to cotton farmers. Most cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell their spirits. They plan to wait and see for sale, while the new seed cotton has large water quality and poor quality. The cotton mill is not eager to buy it, and even dare not rush to buy it. Therefore, the new cotton market has a "two busy state of buying and selling".

Three, why does the price of new lint rise and fall this year?

In August, due to the escalation of the Sino US trade war, the textile industry was in a difficult position, and the yarn market was not good enough. The textile mills did not buy much of the lint cotton, and insisted on the strategy of follow suit with purchase. In addition, the continuous running of the national cotton store, no matter the price or the quality, was more suitable for the procurement requirements of the textile mills, forming a certain pressure on the spot cotton. In September 4th, the average price of the national cotton and cotton trade was 3128 fold, and the price was 12959 yuan / ton, of which Xinjiang cotton was 3128 yuan, 13189 yuan / ton, 3128 discount price for real estate cotton, 12603 yuan / ton, and the price of national cotton storage also played a guiding role in the spot lint market. Zheng cotton futures can not rise, but this week, although low rebound, but the resilience is generally, the 2001 main contract this morning is hovering around the 12550-12725 yuan / ton line, which is difficult to bring strong support to the spot lint market, leading to the continuous decline of the price of the new lint cotton in the mainland, of which three grade leather cotton in Shandong area is 12100-12500 yuan / ton line, compared with last week, it dropped 400 yuan / ton line. The Hebei sub packet three grade lint factory quoted price is in the 11900 yuan / ton line, the big package three grade lint factory price is 13000 yuan / ton line, fluctuating 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. Because of the bad external factors, the price of new lint in the new and old alternation stage has not been kept at a low price because of the low price of goods.

Four, high price of cottonseed in the new year.

The price of cottonseed will fall back after the new seed on the market, but the price of new cottonseed will not only run high in this year, but also keeps rising trend. The price of new cottonseed in Shandong is as high as 1.33 to 1.38 yuan per Jin, the quality of Xinjiang cotton seed to the factory price is 1.34 - 1.41 yuan / Jin line, the new cottonseed in Hebei is 1. 30 to 1. 5 yuan / Jin line, and the new cottonseed in Henan to the factory price is 1.25 yuan / Jin line. The main reasons are as follows: first, the price of new seed cotton scales is low, but the price of new seed cotton is still below 2.90 yuan / Jin line, and the downward trend of lint cotton is obvious. At this time, high price cottonseed has become a steelyard for coordinating the two party, and the demand for cottonseed is obviously better than that of lint.

其二，下游棉副產(chǎn)品行情高位運(yùn)行，部分地區(qū)仍處漲勢，對棉籽起到一定支撐作用，其中山東地區(qū)三級水洗棉油出廠價(jià)在5380－5500元/噸一線，河北地區(qū)三級水洗棉油出廠價(jià)在5400元/噸一線，河南地區(qū)三級水洗棉油出廠價(jià)在5400元/噸一線；山東地區(qū)46%蛋白棉粕出廠價(jià)在3150－3200元/噸，河北地區(qū)46%蛋白棉粕出廠價(jià)在3250元/噸一線，河南地區(qū)46%蛋白棉粕價(jià)出廠價(jià)在3200元/噸一線；山東地區(qū)棉殼（中殼）出廠價(jià)在1500－1580元/噸，河北地區(qū)中殼出廠價(jià)在1500－1550元/噸一線，河南地區(qū)中殼出廠價(jià)在1600元/噸一線；山東地區(qū)質(zhì)量尚可棉短絨出廠報(bào)價(jià)在3650－3900元/噸一線，食品級棉短絨出廠價(jià)在4000－4400元/噸一線，河北地區(qū)食品級棉短絨出廠價(jià)在4000－4200元/噸一線，河南地區(qū)質(zhì)量一般棉短絨出廠價(jià)在3500元/噸一線。 At present, there are still many factors in the external market. There is still a further adjustment trend in the market. The price of seed cotton and cottonseed will be further positioned after the new seed cotton is on the market, and the market will remain clear for a long time.