Good Luck! The Release Of 900 Billion Yuan Of Funds Is Expected To Bring Some Impetus To The Market.

In September 6th, the long-awaited drop boots finally landed.

It is understood that this reduction is expected to release a total of 900 billion yuan liquidity, for the capital market, it is a major positive. Stimulated by this stimulus, the FTSE A50 index futures rose rapidly, or even rose nearly 1%.

The central bank works together.

Yin Dan, director of the macro strategy of CITIC futures research department, told reporters that, compared to the latest directive issued by the central bank in May 7th, the biggest feature of this reduction is the combination of two pronged approaches. The combination of general reduction and directional reduction is more powerful and more money is released.

On the whole, Green, manager of Dahua futures financial research center, believes that this reduction is mainly aimed at coping with the downward pressure of the economy and promoting economic growth by increasing liquidity and making the money more relaxed. In addition, this reduction is also implementing the policy of the executive session of the State Council in September 4th.

It is understood that at the National Convention held in September 4th, the prime minister pointed out that in the future, China should "adhere to the prudent monetary policy and timely adjust the fine-tuning, accelerate the implementation of measures to lower the level of real interest rates, and timely apply the policy tools such as universal reduction and directional reduction."

"It has not happened before two days after it was put forward, but it also shows that our policy is more prospective now, which is a sign of the reduction of the cost of government governance. It shows that the communication between our government and the market is more positive, so that it can bring more stable expectations to the market, facilitate the transmission of policies, and reduce the impact of many markets." Zhao Xiaoxia said.

In addition, the tight internal liquidity node is also the reason why the central bank has decided to make a comprehensive reduction in the near future. It is understood that in the second half of the year, local debt maturity, financial contributions, the expiration of targeted tools and the maturity of the interbank deposit account for a relatively small overall liquidity pressure. The nodes with tight liquidity are expected to mature in June and August. Especially in June and August, it will be the highest and the highest point in 2019.

Considering that in June, China also carried out a policy of directional reduction and a series of steady growth as a measure to deal with the tight liquidity nodes in June. Although the reform of the LPR formation mechanism introduced in August will produce the effect of asymmetric interest rate reduction, which guides the lending rate to the MLF interest rate. But in Yin Dan's view, "as a long-term mechanism for the formation of interest rate corridors in the future, the improvement of short-term liquidity will not be particularly obvious. Therefore, the central bank needs to take more measures to supplement liquidity."

Of course, in addition to internal factors, she believes that the real reason for the central bank's early implementation in the early September is to reduce the scope of the quasi reduction and quasi directional reduction, which is also influenced by the external environment. It is understood that with the uncertainty of economic growth this year, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate for the first time in ten years at the end of July. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the major central banks of the world have cut interest rates by 32 times, and the central bank's interest rate cut has accounted for 2/3 of the data from July to August.

This is because the Fed's monetary policy has been converted to the first rate cut since the previous continuous interest rate increase. The two kinds of economies with very different economic toughness have arrived at the same goal in terms of policy responses. Eventually, more and more central banks around the world are beginning to "march together" in the short term. "As the expectations of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank easing loose again in September are rising, and the additional liquidity constraints caused by the risk factors of the Sino US tariff list falling in September 1st and the unsettled EU issue in October 31st", it is also reasonable for the people's Bank of China to choose to release the quasi reduction measures at this stage to stabilize the liquidity risk of the market. Yin Dan said.

"But this does not mean that domestic monetary policy has shifted." She thought. It is reported that in 2015, when the central bank implemented a series of lowering interest rates, the central bank entered a silent period of traditional policy tools for a long time. "But this does not mean that the central bank has nothing to do but something to do."

In fact, in this "silent period", the central bank implemented the reform of interest rate formation mechanism, laying a solid foundation for the merger of interest rates; and through directional operation, it made precise drip irrigation for the real economy. "It can be said that the central bank is making use of the combined boxing in real time and moderately relaxed, so as to escort the steady growth." Yin Dan said.

900 billion yuan is good, the capital market will benefit.

According to the reporter's understanding, this fall is divided into comprehensive reduction and quasi directional drop, which will release long-term funds of about 900 billion yuan. Among them, the central bank will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions in September 16th by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies), and expects to release about 800 billion of the funds. As for the additional reserve ratio of 1 percentage points for urban banks operating only in the provincial administrative region, it will be implemented two times in October 15th and November 15th, and the total liquidity will be released around 100 billion.

The elimination of three types of financial institutions, such as financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies, has been eliminated in a comprehensive direction. According to the relevant person in charge of the central bank, it is mainly because the statutory reserve ratio of these three types of financial institutions is 6%, which is the lowest level in financial institutions.

Considering that since the three quarter, the escalation of Sino US trade disputes has caused the downside risks of the global economy to intensify. The British withdrawal from Europe has seen a tug of war at various levels, making the market speculate that the incident may evolve into a systemic risk fuse similar to that of Lehman brothers and European pig countries. The overlay of the recent fundamentals also shows a poor performance, so the risk of assets is suppressed, while the US dollar index, high credit rating long debt, and precious metals become a safe haven for capital.

However, in the past two weeks, the above warning is being lifted one by one: the Sino US high-level economic and trade consultations will be resumed in early October, and British Prime Minister Johnson has suffered three strikes in Parliament. In this regard, the financial market has begun to react, risk sentiment has begun to return significantly in the beginning of the week.

At the same time, China recently introduced a series of measures to increase the policy of steady growth again. In September 4th, the meeting of the National Convention was even more groundless yesterday. In view of this, Yin Dan believes that since the early stages of various kinds of risk aversion have long suppressed the risk assets, the risk of asset class assets will continue to rebound after next week's opening, and the risk assets will continue to call back.

In fact, Zhao Xiaoxia's view is that this will be good for commodities, stock markets and bond markets. After all, economic optimism will increase demand for commodities and increase in liquidity itself will usually bring prices up. Superposition will also further boost market sentiment. "It is estimated that the stock market and bond market will be stronger in the future".

Specifically, Kun West Finance Research Institute president Xiang Yang believes that this reduction will support the real economy, especially interest rate sensitive industries. And in the mood will significantly enhance market risk preference, is conducive to the promotion of the valuation of the stock market. As for the commodity market, the black that will be trapped in demand will be significantly boosted, and some of the colored varieties that remain at low levels will also be supported. And precious metals in the early stage of risk factors in the push up at a high level, the recent fear of high fall. In terms of foreign exchange market, considering that the US dollar is still on the upswing in recent years, offshore renminbi has slowly recovered after hitting 7.19, and there is no further devaluation factor at present.

"However, we should not be overly optimistic about the height of the rebound. Yin Dan thinks.

She said, this is because: first, this reduction has already made obvious omens, and the market has already priced it before the announcement of the downgrading news. Secondly, Britain's return to Europe in October 31st is a risk of putting it in the picture. At least until this date, the variables in the UK are still very large, affecting the nerves of the market. Finally, the ECB and the Federal Reserve in September are likely to take further easing measures. After the landing of the policy, the market will produce the effect of "buying and selling the facts", so the pessimism of the economic prospects will be overshadowed by the easing of the economic prospects when the two major central banks' easing policies are introduced, which is a risk of hiding in the dark. Facing the pressure of two big risks, the risk aversion is still dormant in the near future and is likely to return at any time.

"In addition, we need to mention that the real estate sector which is more sensitive to monetary policy will be temporarily promoted due to the reduction of the information." She said that this is mainly due to the reform of the mortgage interest rate mechanism in early October after the LPR reform. According to the current LPR level, the lower interest rate of the reform mortgage interest rate will be higher than the current standard.

Therefore, Yin Dan believes that this factor will be part of the drive to drive some of the rigid demand into the market before the new rate standard falls in early October. It is predicted that the effect of real estate sales this year will be more obvious. However, the recent series of real estate policies have been tightened at both ends of supply and demand. The lifting effect will be a flash in the pan. The amount of capital released into the real estate market is very limited, so it is difficult to reverse the long-term pressure on the real estate market.

As for the future, Yin Dan believes that the central bank will enter a period of silence after the implementation of the RR, and observe the policy effect. If the market's risk aversion rises rapidly and the liquidity once again causes tighter effect, the central bank is likely to reduce the interest rates of SLF and MLF to guide the market interest rate downwards to soothe the market. "At present, the possibility of continuing to reduce interest rates or even reduce interest rates in the near future is not very big." Xiang Yang said.

Textile people yearn for the outbreak of terminal orders

Beginning in August, terminal demand has entered a marginal improvement channel, but up to now, the downstream orders have not been significantly improved. It is understood that the unconventional fabrics that had been launched earlier in the near future have been weakening. For example, the super soft fleece in the earlier stage of Haining warp knitting machine has recently been flameout, the feedback business of Xiaoshao local dyeing and printing plant has been weakening, and there is a decrease in the volume of the reaction of a Shaoxing super flexible circular machine plant. Besides, some conventional varieties of Wujiang, Changshu and Haining have not been obviously started. Partial improvement is simply that production and marketing can be done smoothly, but the stock can not be changed. At present, the high inventory, low profit, and the tight capital situation caused by inventory backlog have not been improved temporarily. The terminal pressure still exists, and it is urgent to convert the inventory back to the capital. There will be downward pressure on the opening rate in the future. The next mid autumn festival may also be the time when the contradiction erupted, and the probability of downtime still exists. Especially during the National Day holiday, the market will face a new test.

According to the survey, some textile enterprises are not as bad as the market reflects. For the whole market, in 2019, many textile factories were losing money and failing to operate. However, many people ignore the other manufacturer, but they are still making good progress. Recently, JL, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces are mainly spinning market, and some enterprises have improved their orders. According to some manufacturers, although the recent orders have not been particularly improved, enterprises have already used low cost raw materials, and the yarn profit margins are still good. And some big factories have better operating efficiency and bring some impetus to the market.