The Yarn Market Is Slightly Warmer, And The Inventory Is Running High.

Last week, the yarn market continued to warm up last week. As of September 11th, the domestic C32S average price was 20518 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 23 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Recent domestic and international good news, such as China and the United States agreed to re launch a new round of trade negotiations in October, the market optimism has heated up; the Central Bank of China has dropped 0.5 yuan percentage points and released about 900 billion yuan of long-term funds to stabilize the market; the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has further consolidated the expectations of the Federal Reserve in September to cut interest rates; on Tuesday, Trump suddenly fired "high security official Bolton", indicating that the special government's foreign policy or more inclined to "move" and "do nothing". Even today, Trump announced on Twitter as a goodwill gesture that he postponed the decision to increase the tariffs of $250 billion to October 15th. With so much good news and the release of "golden nine silver ten" just now, the cotton textile industry, which is weak in operation, is expected to usher in a brief recovery. As can be seen from the above chart, the national yarn inventory has dropped from nearly 30 days to about 24 days. However, the good news of macro news has to wait for days in the market. At present, many textile enterprises indicate that although orders have increased compared with August, they still face small orders, poor capital turnover and a large number of workers. At present, going to stock is a top priority for most enterprises.

From the upstream raw materials, a series of macro news plus Xinjiang cotton area most suffered from low-temperature rain weather, Zheng Mian first opened the rebound mode, CF2001 contract once stood on 13000 yuan / ton stalls. Spot is keeping pace with futures, and this week is also getting warmer. But this year the cotton mill generally postponed the purchase of seed cotton, resulting in the new cotton market time to move back. As the reserve cotton has entered the last month, the volume has remained above 90% for 1 days, and in recent days it has been 100% consecutive transactions. There are three reasons for this: first, the high cost performance of national cotton stores and the actual demand of the mills; second, although the market is not satisfactory, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is generally low and spinning profits are good. If there is no increase in inventory, if cotton is not listed in time, it is likely that lint will be broken after that. Third, reserve cotton does not need to move library and other formalities, so that it can meet the needs of enterprise's phased capital.

Let's look at the downstream weaving Market. Unlike cotton and cotton yarn market, the turnover of the pure cotton market in September is not much better than that in August. Textile mill inventory declined slowly, although the recent shipments have improved, but stocks are still at a high level. This week, the price of 32 pure cotton cloth even fell below 5 yuan / meter, a record low. For the upcoming Mid Autumn Festival, some factories arranged a holiday, and the holiday situation increased compared with last year. Inventory in April this year, weaving factory inventory began to increase, to June full cotton inventory is higher than the same period last year. In accordance with past practice, beginning in mid August, the inventory of weaving mills gradually declined, and the inventory of weaving mills remained high during the same period. In early September, the inventory pressure of the mills was released after the implementation of the implementation and the cost free shipment of the weaving mills.

On the whole, there are still uncertainties in the macro disturbance events, but as a whole, the upstream of the cotton textile industry chain has come to an early start. However, the industry boom has not yet reversed, spinning enterprises remain high inventory, the market is obviously oversupply, inventory will be a long-term process. However, despite the fact that this year's "golden nine silver ten" is in short supply, it is expected that the pure cotton yarn market will be boosted, and there will be a short-term turnaround. And due to the loss of orders in the lower reaches of the Southeast Asian countries, coupled with the domestic macro-economic downturn, it is expected that the order of textile mills in September will not recover well.