The Market Is "Thundering" And The Price Of Oil Is Wild. Polyester Market To "Big Market"

Local time September 14th, the world's largest oil company Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia's two important oil installations attacked), Saudi Arabia's daily output of about 50%, the global oil supply reduced by about 5%.

In terms of international oil prices, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 19% at the opening of the 15 day, reaching a high point of 71.95 US dollars (about 509 yuan) per barrel, and the US crude oil futures price surged over 15% to 63.34 US dollars (about 448 yuan) per barrel, and two data reached the highest level since May.

With the stimulation of international oil prices, all kinds of products in the polyester industry chain have risen sharply.

In terms of PTA, the 2001 contract of PTA futures in September 16th closed at 5270 points, up 166 points from the previous trading day, or 3.25%.

In terms of ethylene glycol, the main 2001 contract of ethylene glycol futures in September 16th ended up 4993 yuan, up 237 points from the previous trading day, or 4.98%.

Polyester filament price, Tongxiang mainstream factory polyester POY rose 100 yuan / ton; Wujiang factory FDY rose 100 yuan / ton, Jiangsu polyester factory rose 100-200 yuan / ton; Shaoxing factory FDY rose 100 yuan / ton. Overall, in September 16th, all kinds of polyester filament products rose 50-200 yuan / ton up and down, and the subsequent probability continued to rise.

Polyester production and marketing, driven by the surge of crude oil, today, the market atmosphere of polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has surged and production and sales have surged. According to statistics, production and sales of polyester mainstream plants have climbed to 260%-270%, and some of them have reached 350% or even 450% higher.

It can be said that the "black swan" incident in Saudi Arabia has injected a "chicken blood" into the original market that has not been very warm, so that the market suddenly became active.

How long can this rally last? Will it repeat the same mistakes?

The attack on Saudi Arabia is an unexpected phenomenon. In the short term, it can cause a sharp rise in the prices of various products in the international oil price and even polyester industry chain. But how long can such a rise last?

Take PTA futures as an example, the trading day of the PTA futures contract of the 2001 main contract rose by more than 2.5% in August 14th, when the United States announced that some products were added to the tariffs, plus that period of time was running out, polyester production and sales performed well, and PTA passed the device maintenance. In the end, PTA futures closed up 136 points on the day, or 2.6%. But it didn't last long. On the second day, PTA futures began to dive, down 192 points, or 3.52%.

In fact, the rise of PTA in the past several times due to the easing of trade relations between China and the United States or other sudden causes is the same. Generally just after a few days' rise, it will fall back immediately. Will this polyester raw material repeat the same mistakes? Then compare the similarities and differences between the past and the past several rising times.

Same points

The same as that of the past several times, the inventory pressure of the weaving enterprises is still very strong. According to the data monitoring of China silk net, although the inventory situation of weaving enterprises decreased after September, there were still about 39 days left.

Because the overstock of inventory has caused the tension of the chain of funds in weaving enterprises has not changed. Most of the weaving enterprises will still choose to sell goods when the fund is more tense. In addition, clothing brands, foreign trade orders and so on are still worse than the same period in the past.

Difference

The past several rises occurred in 7 and August, which belong to the traditional off-season of textile industry. This happened in the middle of September. In September, there was always a "Kim Gu" in the textile market. Even if the market was bad, the cyclical demand would still exist. In addition, the past several rises are more "speculation", but this is the international oil price, that is, the cost is rising. For weaving enterprises, the rising price of polyester raw materials will tend to be more acceptable.

Overall, the price of polyester products is rising, and the outbreak of production and marketing is slightly different from that of the past several times. The rise of crude oil has made the outbreak of polyester raw materials no longer a "root free water", and the cyclical demand in September can also widen the capital chain of weaving enterprises. But we should also see that the environment with high inventory and weak demand still exists. When the oil producing countries began to exert their strength, crude oil prices fell, and the polyester raw materials that had risen up still had the risk of falling back.