Vietnam Wants Fire In The Second Half Of The Year. Textile And Footwear Exports Are Expected To Continue To Grow.

In the last few months of 2019, Vietnam's exports of goods are expected to continue to grow, mainly driven by traditional industries such as textiles, footwear and furniture... But there are still many potential risks for export activities.

　　 There are many positive factors for exports.

According to the Ministry of industry and trade, export activities will be strengthened and there are many favorable factors. Specifically, when consumer demand increases, the last few months of this year will be the peak period for enterprises to focus on production, especially consumer electronics (telephone, TV...). Samsung's mobile phone products are expected to be launched in the third quarter of 2019 to support the manufacture of mobile phones and components, while Thanksgiving and Christmas (the fourth quarter) are the peak of shopping. Users.

As many projects enter the peak period of export, the export volume of the third quarter of 2019 is expected to be higher than that of the second quarter of 2019. Commodity exports often increase in the last few months of the year, as this is the peak period of consumer shopping during the Spring Festival holiday.

In particular, Vietnam's exports to the US market will continue to grow positively as the US importers gradually look for alternatives to Chinese goods and new production facilities after the transfer of investment. If computers, electronic products and parts, aquatic products, wooden furniture, furniture and other industries, Vietnamese enterprises will quickly and actively grasp the information, find out the advantages of using them, seize opportunities, increase opportunities, gain market share, enhance competitiveness, meet standards, demand and increase exports, and will seize better opportunities. In contrast, when these products are transferred from China to Vietnam, the domestic market, such as steel, leather shoes, textiles, agricultural products and electronic products, will face competitive pressure. Men should avoid taxes.

When the US Department of Commerce (DOC) just announced the final result of the thirteenth administrative reconsideration (POR 13), which was imposed on Vietnam under the United States anti-dumping duty, there were favorable factors. Therefore, 31 Vietnamese enterprises will enjoy a 0% tax rate. In the list, there are many large enterprises, such as Minh Phu, CP Vietnam, Camimex...

The Ministry of industry and Trade said that the 0% tax would not only have short-term effects, but could also break the export to the US market, and expect more orders in the near future. Because the United States is Vietnam's shrimp import market, but also a strict rule of the picky market. At the same time, the demand for shrimp imports from Vietnam increased due to reduced inventories, while the United States also reduced imports from India and Thailand and significantly reduced imports from China.

Many factors impeded growth.

However, with these positive factors, the trade war between China and the United States has escalated with conflict in the context of slowing global economic growth and increasing risk factors. The trade war between Japan and South Korea has also raised concerns about the global recession, and commodity exports in the short term are unlikely to increase significantly as they did in 2017 and 2018.

With the improvement of the level, the US China trade war can not be predicted. In August 23, 2019, when China announced that it would levy taxes of $5% or 10% on US $75 billion, the trade tensions between the two countries were pushed to a new level (September 1st came into effect, December 15, 2019). In addition, China will levy an additional tariff of 25% and 5% on the two major export products of the United States, including automobiles and auto parts, starting in December 15, 2019.

US President Donald Trump immediately announced a response to the tax rate of $250 billion on Chinese goods to 30% (instead of 25% now), which came into effect in 2019, and will levy a 15% tax from September 1, 2019 on the remaining $300 billion surplus from China (instead of 10% of the previous plan), including some items will be taxed). In October 1st, the United States announced that it would levy a tax of 15%. Since December 15, 2019. At the same time, the United States also announced a plan to withdraw the US business from China.

In addition, international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, have warned that trade tensions between the United States and China are slowing the growth of the world, China and the United States. At the same time, other economies have been greatly affected because they are important economic partners in many countries.

In August 27th, the Central Bank of China continued to depreciate the renminbi to an unprecedented low (7.0810 yuan 1 US dollars). After the people's Bank of China announced the reference rate, the RMB trade in the international market was much lower than the previous day, falling to 71576 yuan per dollar, the lowest level in 11 years. After President Donald Trump was eager to announce higher tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the United States, the depreciation of the renminbi was done by the Beijing government. The depreciation of the renminbi will partly help to reduce the losses caused by US tariffs. This will affect the export activities of Vietnam and the possibility of increasing the trade deficit in the near future. Under such circumstances, the price of goods exported from Vietnam to China will be even higher.

In addition, agricultural exports are expected to face many challenges, which will make it difficult for the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors to achieve the same high growth rate in the same period. The reasons are: the prediction of the impact of world economic growth in 2019 has declined, and the countries all over the world tend to return to the region and invest in agricultural development. Vietnam's agricultural products must face fierce export competition, resulting in a sharp decline in prices. Meanwhile, Vietnam's main agricultural products importing countries such as the United States, the European Union, China, Japan and South Korea have strengthened the protection of agricultural products through quality management and safety standards. Biological food, traceability requirements.

In recent developments, trade tensions between Japan and South Korea have intensified, as Japan has decided to restrict exports of three materials for manufacturing semiconductors and other types of materials. The screen went to Korea in July 1, 2019. For Vietnam, Japan's decision to restrict the export of hi-tech materials to Korea not only affects Korea's semiconductor, chip and display manufacturing companies, but also affects factories, factories in other countries, including Vietnam. The Ministry of industry and trade will continue to pay close attention to the trade tensions between Japan and South Korea in order to coordinate the administrative and handling problems affecting Vietnam.