Why Is The Focus Of Future Textile Industry Not In The Small Countries In Southeast Asia, But In China?

"Printing and dyeing" news: with the increase of labor costs in China, a number of multinational manufacturing enterprises in Europe, America and Japan have begun to move part of the labor-intensive manufacturing factories from China to Southeast Asian countries, especially Vietnam, which has undertaken a large number of multinational manufacturing factories.

However, the recent emergence of a different voice has made these multinational manufacturing enterprises start to wonder: how long can labor costs in Southeast Asia be cheaper?

With the development of China's high quality economy, the Chinese economy driven by sweat has gradually entered into the economic development mode driven by science and technology. Can the factory moved out of the transnational manufacturing industry really be able to move back to China easily?

How cheap can the labor force in Southeast Asia be?

On this issue, we must take a typical example from Southeast Asian countries - Vietnam. In recent years, Vietnam has become a destination for transnational manufacturing because the wages of Vietnam are cheap. According to statistics, the average wage of Vietnam in the first quarter of 2018 was about 225 US dollars, the monthly salary of Chinese enterprises was 320 dollars, the monthly salary of foreign companies was 260 dollars, and private enterprises earned 240 dollars per month. The highest monthly salary of state-owned enterprises was RMB 2000 yuan.

However, as more and more factories entered, Vietnam's wage level rose. The minimum wage in Vietnam will increase by 5.3% in 2019. The average monthly income of wage workers in the first quarter of 2019 was estimated at 6 million 900 thousand shield / month, an increase of nearly 96 thousand and 700 shield from the previous quarter, an increase of 1 million 50 thousand over the same period last year. The average wage reached 1997 yuan, which was the same as that of the highest state owned enterprises in 2018. The speed of the rise is very interesting.

According to some experts, the average age of the 93 million Vietnamese population is only 29 years old, and 70% of the population is under 35 years old. This is the advantage of Vietnam in attracting foreign investment. According to the Foreign Investment Bureau of Vietnam's Ministry of investment, Vietnam's foreign investment volume reached $10 billion 800 million in the first quarter of 2019, a sharp increase of 86.2% over the same period last year, the highest level in 3 years. This will further strengthen the development potential of Vietnam's export oriented economy.

According to this speed, experts predict that in the next 7 years, the wage level of Vietnam will be in line with China, and the artificial dividend will disappear. By then, Vietnam will also face difficult transformation and upgrading, and some labor-intensive manufacturing industries will find new wage depressions.

The focus of future industry is not on small countries in Southeast Asia.

To sum up, the reason why the relevant multinational enterprises invest in factories in Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam is the low labor cost in Vietnam. This is a very great benefit for labor-intensive industries. At present, the labor force in Vietnam and other countries is both young and well supplied.

However, production in Southeast Asian countries is almost exclusively for export to the international market. Take Vietnam as an example, on the one hand, its population size is small, the domestic market space is limited, on the other hand, because of low wage income, the consumption capacity has not yet been completely released. Unlike the European and American multinational enterprises entering the Chinese market, they looked at the huge consumption market of 1 billion 300 million of China's population, followed by China's cheap labor costs.

In addition, the development of supporting industries in Southeast Asian countries is quite different from that in China. A component often produced in Vietnam still has to go back to China for assembly. From the point of view of multinational enterprises, it is not very willing to develop a complete industrial chain in Southeast Asian countries, because this will greatly cost investment and demand for all aspects is also very high, and this is not a single multinational enterprise can accomplish alone.

Most importantly, many multinational companies are still concerned about the industrial Internet and AI technology that 5G will lead in the future, which will make the factory free from dependence on production workers. The industry expects that in the next 5-10 years, the vast majority of the global manufacturing industry will enter the era of industrial Internet, and the labor force will leave the workshop, and no factory will be possible. Under such circumstances, the construction of a modern unmanned factory in the nearest market place, with the most complete infrastructure and complete industrial structure will remain the preferred choice for multinational enterprises.

As a result, the industrial Internet led by 5G will still be the manufacturing center of big countries. China will no doubt remain the center of world manufacturing.

Can multinational manufacturers move out and move back?

Some multinational manufacturing plants began to move out of China due to labor cost considerations. Then, can China's 5G industrial Internet era move back to China? Not necessarily.

Made in China is facing a very rapid transformation and upgrading. This is closely related to the high quality development of China's economy driven by science and technology. Under such circumstances, it is not necessary to say that some multinational enterprises are factories of some local enterprises, and are faced with the dilemma of nowhere to live because of environmental factors and low added value factors. A famous brand enterprise factory known by the brand 100 division, originally in Beijing, was forced to move to a certain place in Shandong. In less than a year, it was jointly law enforcement. Now it has to move to Hebei. It is said that the new production base will eventually move to Jiangxi. Therefore, it is more and more difficult to think of China as a pure production base.

Second, the HUAWEI incident has made economic policymakers profoundly reflect. Low quality development with low technology level can not achieve the great economic growth of China. Therefore, in the next few years, the progress of science and technology in China will be even faster than the progress made in China. It can be said that China's economy has entered the fast lane of technological innovation and development. The high value-added economic development mode will enable China's nearly 1 billion 400 million people to increase their income, achieve a wider range of consumption upgrading and enter the level of middle-income countries. Multinational enterprises can consider that there is little possibility of moving back to multinational factories, such as beverage manufacturing, clothing manufacturing, toy manufacturing and chemical manufacturing.

Third, China must try to avoid the landing of resource consuming factories in the future. During the 40 years of reform and opening up, although China's economy has been developing rapidly, China's economic policymakers have also realized that in the process, China has consumed a lot of resources, including oil, coal, iron ore and so on, which makes the corresponding resources in China depleted and needs a large number of imports. Instead of importing a lot of international resources, manufacturing and exporting to the international market, it will be better to develop new and high technology manufacturing industries and new energy industries with low resource consumption, no pollution and profitability.

Calm investment: opportunities and risks in Vietnam

At present, a total of 88 countries and regions invest in Vietnam. In the first 5 months of 2019, the amount of foreign investment flowing into Vietnam amounted to US $16 billion 740 million, an increase of 69.1% over the same period last year. Among all the sources of investment, the investment scale of Chinese funded enterprises is far more than that of the same period in 2018. In 2018, China's total inflow into Vietnam amounted to more than 2 billion 460 million US dollars, but in the first 5 months of 2019, China's investment in Vietnam amounted to US $2 billion 20 million. Many large and medium sized manufacturing enterprises in China have investigated various industrial parks in Vietnam, and many textile and electronic enterprises have been put into operation. Many large projects with investment permits are also landing. China has also surpassed Japan to become Vietnam's largest source of investment.

Overinvestment and risks should not be ignored.

First, as far as Vietnam's employment cost is concerned, Vietnam's low wages have certain advantages, but the quality of the workforce still needs to be improved. The world bank considers Vietnam to be short of skilled labor and senior technical personnel. In terms of the scoring system, Vietnam's manpower quality is only 3.79 points, ranking eleventh in 12 Asian countries participating in the world bank rankings, while South Korea, India and Malaysia reach 6.91 points, 5.76 points and 5.59 points respectively. Therefore, the labor efficiency of Vietnam is low in all countries in the Asia Pacific region. These disadvantages offset the low wage advantage. In addition, the minimum wage standard is increasing year by year, the aging of labor force and labor strike are also risks that can not be ignored.

Second, the possibility of US tariffs on Vietnamese goods is increasing and local investment advantages will be reduced. In the first five months of 2019, China accounted for 43% of the 49 new projects in Vietnam. In addition, Vietnam's exports of steel and footwear may also be subject to additional duties imposed by the United States. It can be said that Vietnam's increasing trade surplus with the United States has also attracted the attention of Trump. On the eve of the G-20 summit in Japan, Trump said Vietnam could still account for cheaper us than China. Under such circumstances, there are many variables in Vietnam's investment environment.

For Chinese enterprises, Vietnam is a place where opportunities and risks coexist. We should conduct comprehensive assessment and sober consideration before investing more. If small and medium-sized enterprises have no choice but to "live by water", then as a certain strength enterprise, instead of swarm into a certain country, it is better to calm down and think about the development strategy of enterprises. Even if we want to layout overseas, we should spread risks and strengthen the global distribution. Moreover, under the premise that China has good infrastructure and well-educated and disciplined workforce, enterprises can also consider how to upgrade on the original basis, upgrade the production equipment automatically, educate and train the labor force, and take the initiative to go out of their own way in line with the fourth industrial revolution.

China made about 45 billion 600 million garments a year.

In 2018, China made about 45 billion 600 million garments.

China is already the largest clothing retail market in the world.

　　 More and more Chinese people begin to pursue the brand and quality of clothing. Clothing consumption is not only a basic life demand. People not only want to wear warm clothes, but also to wear them well.

Chinese textile manufacturing

Behind the 45 billion 600 million garments is China's perfect apparel industry chain. China produces about 6 million tons of cotton a year and is the world's largest cotton producer. In Xinjiang, where annual output exceeds 5 million tons, growing cotton makes ethnic minorities richer and richer.

　　 China is the largest producer of chemical fiber in the world's economy, accounting for more than 70% of the world's total. The annual output of chemical fiber increased from 1 million tons to 50 million tons, which took only about 30 years. The number of chemical fiber enterprises is decreasing, but its strength is stronger and stronger.

　　 China has the strongest production capacity of about 1.6 enterprises and can produce more than 22 billion 200 million garments in one year.

　　 To support tens of billions of clothing production every year, China is also the world's largest textile machinery manufacturer.

More importantly, China has the largest number of skilled textile dyeing and garment workers in the world, and they can operate any advanced production line. Although their wages are higher than those of some other developing countries, they can create more value.

　　 Intellectualization is changing traditional clothing production in China.

Tongxiang, a small town in Zhejiang, China.

An automatic machine worth 1 million yuan.

Garment can be directly produced according to computer background data.

In May 23, 2018, the fully computerized flat knitting machine workshop of Tongxiang Fashion Fashion Co., Ltd., the full-automatic machine directly manufactured garments according to the background input data, and the price of each computerized flat knitting machine exceeded 1 million yuan.

　　 (Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Yu photo)

Guangdong textile printing and dyeing industry has important geographical advantages.

As one of the five main producing areas of China's printing and dyeing industry, Guangdong has an important location advantage in developing printing and dyeing industry. How to use advanced technology to help upgrade and upgrade traditional industries has become a hot topic. Especially in the printing and dyeing industry, the current situation of high energy consumption and high pollution must be changed.

On the one hand, the textile and dyeing industry belongs to the people's livelihood industry, and on the other hand, it is a typical traditional industry. In recent years, due to the stricter policy of environmental protection, many printing and dyeing enterprises have been rectified or even shut down.

Textile printing and dyeing industry is looking for a way out under the new environmental protection situation. In recent years, construction and upgrading of many printing and dyeing industrial zones have provided specimens for the development of the industry.

Environmental protection enterprise + printing and dyeing industrial park has become a new mode of printing and dyeing industry development.

The big bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau is not only equipped with mature technical conditions but also has excellent geographical location for the textile and garment industry. It is said that the order of textile and clothing in Southeast Asia will probably return to the "gold suction pool" in the future.

In order to seize this industry opportunity, Guangdong printing and dyeing industry must promote industry transformation, vigorously use new technology, new technology, new auxiliaries, new dyes, introduce new talents, and promote the new stage of upgrading and development of textile printing and dyeing industry.