Sino US Trade Friction: Experts Say That We Should Focus On The Terminal Consumer Market And Optimize The Efficiency Of Products.

In October 9, 2019, the China Cotton Textile Conference and the fifth enlarged five meeting of the Chinese Cotton Textile Industry Association held a grand meeting in Wuhan. Zhao Mingxia, vice president of the China Textile Industry Federation of Industrial Economics Research Institute, focused on the progress of Sino US trade frictions for more than a year, and combined with the international and domestic macro environment, analyzed the development direction and Countermeasures of China's textile industry.

Sino US trade friction progress

President Zhao introduced that Sino US trade friction started in March 2018 when the United States launched a survey of steel and aluminum in China, and then gradually increased tax measures on the vast majority of China's commodities, with tariffs ranging from 5%-25%. Up to now, the United States has about $520 billion worth of export commodities to China or impose additional import tariffs, and China has imposed or planned to impose import tariffs on US $185 billion worth of export commodities. According to Customs Statistics in 2018, China's exports to the United States amounted to about 480 billion US dollars, of which the export volume of textiles and clothing was about US $50 billion, while China's imports from the United States amounted to about 155 billion US dollars. Therefore, the Sino US tax increase list covers almost all trade in goods. To the textile industry, the US tax increase list covers most of China's chemical fiber, yarn, fabric, carpet, industrial textiles, clothing and household textiles. According to customs data, the total trade volume of textile and clothing exported to the United States every year is about 50 billion US dollars. At present, China and the United States have conducted 12 rounds of high-level economic and trade consultations, but no consensus has been reached. The United States' direct impact on China's textile and clothing exports to the United States has obviously declined, of which the most rapid and strong substitution of long and short silk is the relatively strong export of yarn to the United States. With the increase of tariffs, it is expected that by the end of this year, the export of upstream textiles will face greater difficulties, and the export pressure of clothing home textiles will become more prominent in 2020.

The relationship between Sino US trade friction and the development of textile industry

According to China's main export market data, in 2018, China exported 18.2% of the world's total exports to the United States, the largest single export market in China, a decrease of US $10 billion compared with last year, and the export growth rate of the whole industry will drop by 3%-4%. Sino US trade friction is one of the reasons for the slowdown in China's exports, but it is not the only reason. It also includes the slowdown in global economic growth and the adjustment of international textile supply chain. For example, the growth of international trade in some emerging countries is outstanding. In addition, as the external situation changes and the scale of the industry expands, the development of China's textile industry has already entered a period of slowing down of aggregate growth and a period of deep adjustment and transformation. The current development speed is within the scope of reasonable expectations. This is the inevitable result of the development and structural adjustment of the textile industry. Therefore, Sino US trade friction is not the core factor for the slowdown of the industry. On the contrary, Sino US trade friction has accelerated the transformation and upgrading of the industry. In the future, the key areas of direct participation in international market competition will gradually shift from clothing to upstream products such as fabrics, fibers and other industrial chains.

The way out for China's textile industry under the background of Sino US trade friction

President Zhao pointed out that the focus of Sino US trade friction is not short-term economic interests. The tension between Sino US trade relations will exist for a long time. But China is still the center of world textile. First, China's textile industry should actively explore diversified export markets in response to the current trade relations. The emerging and developing markets along the belt are not the final consumer market. The development of textile primary products should be the key to the layout of these regions and countries. At the same time, we must actively establish close relations with customs enterprises and overseas investment enterprises. Second, we should fully tap the market space for domestic demand. Domestic consumption demand still has much room for improvement. We should pay attention to the development direction of consumption upgrading in multiple fields, multi-level and diversified domestic demand. Third, we should rationally carry out the layout of overseas investment. Southeast Asian countries, African countries and other factors have the advantages of cost advantages, local investment preferential policies are great, but the power and logistics and other infrastructure facilities are not perfect, we need to be cautious.

Finally, president Zhao suggested that textile enterprises should pay attention to the change of macro-economic situation and strengthen the research and thinking of medium and long term development strategy in the face of the complex and changeable macro development environment at home and abroad. Secondly, we should focus on the terminal consumer market and optimize products. Third, we should make preparations for long-term and complex environment, enhance efficiency and increase effective input of elements.