Comments On The Development Of Auto Market: Top Level Design And Stability Expectations Need To Be Strengthened

Dong Yang, former executive vice president of China Automobile Industry Association

The problem facing the automobile market is not caused by the automobile industry itself. First, compared to two years ago, the investment in auto industry has increased to the highest level in history. The proportion of R & D investment has increased, the R & D talent team has expanded, the effect of technological progress is obvious, and the application of new technology is also very obvious.

Second, electric vehicles are developing rapidly in China. Although there are still many problems in the industry, such as high cost, incomplete security, and difficult charging, etc., from the perspective of industrial capability, the market has stimulated the development of technology. The level of our main products is not up to the international advanced level yet, but we are replacing them for two years. They are replacing them for five years. Therefore, I am more confident that in 2025 or later, China's electric vehicles will reach the leading level, and electric buses will also take the lead, because the production of China's electric buses will account for more than 90% of the world's total.

Moreover, as the market is weak, the domestic brands have fallen more sharply, but the domestic brands of the head, such as the Great Wall and Geely, have performed well. I recently went to Guangzhou Automobile Research and research, although their output has declined, but the market of several new products is still good. From the perspective of structural adjustment, this year's effect is very obvious.

Finally, although the inventory is still relatively high from the data level, the relationship between production and marketing has gradually normalized after more than a year of negative growth. When the market was bad at first, the vehicle factory would put pressure on the sellers, so that the sellers could get the car quickly, but now they could not keep up, so the relationship between production and marketing was gradually normal.

The problems in the industry are old problems, such as dispersion of industries, duplication, lack of strategic planning, and lack of basic technology. But an important new feature is that after reaching the thirty million level, the auto market has entered a stage of steady development. This shows that the ratio of the first car buying and changing is basically 1:1. The stage of buying the car for the first time with a strong purchasing power has completely passed, and now the ordinary consumers enter the stage of buying the car for the first time and paying equal attention to all groups.

Under such circumstances, I think the biggest negative growth of the automobile market is the deep adjustment of the national economy. But judging from the global auto industry, China is still the best performing country. The US auto industry is clearly on the decline. The relevant policies of the United States eased fuel consumption, revoked electric vehicle subsidies, and abolished the intelligent driving, driverless and automatic driving committees. However, when manufacturing enterprises change their technology, it is not conducive to industrial development to completely withdraw their support for enterprises. The Japanese auto industry has also demonstrated clearly to China, paying more attention to the Chinese market because of our own development. I think we can unite to develop the market of the other 3 billion 500 million people in the world.

At present, we need to strengthen the top-level design, and policies must stabilize expectations. As far as the automobile industry is concerned, we must seize the opportunity to develop rapidly when we are developing rapidly. At other times, we should seize the opportunity to adjust, and now is the important time for adjustment. We hope that the policy is not a temporary bailout, but to support the formation of automotive innovation capability and support new components manufacturing, such as supporting the formation of new components such as batteries, motors, chips, operating systems, sensors, cameras, lidar and so on. We can take this road to a powerful automobile country. Specific recommendations are as follows.

First, strengthen top-level design and stabilize policy expectations. On the one hand, for electric vehicles and intelligent network vehicles, we should continue to make national plans, and support them through top-level design. Compared with Germany and Japan, there are still gaps in technology between domestic enterprises and German and Japanese enterprises. These gaps exist objectively, but the gap will gradually shrink with time and market development. In the development of electric vehicles, the improvement of policies requires not only the functions of various departments, but also the strength of experts from all over the country. For example, the German electric vehicle platform plan is composed of 150 top experts in the country. On the other hand, policies must ensure five or even ten years of anticipation, five years of product development and five years of sales. In the past, we were in the stage of follow - up development, and the trend of technology development and management trend were quite clear. But now that we are in the stage of innovation, there are many possibilities for policy. Our policy is more precise regulation, but there are many problems such as insufficient government soliciting opinions and insufficient scientific argumentation. We need long-term, stable and scientific policy support.

Second, we must truly support the development of private enterprises. Not only to support the head enterprise, but also to support the vast number of parts manufacturers. In this adjustment, we should turn from extensive development to environmental protection, friendly and energy-saving development. It is very important to really give the private economy an equal position in the market competition.

Third, tax reform. In the near future, some taxes should be speeded up to be shared by central authorities, and the proportion of tax related to automobile consumption should be increased as far as possible. The value added tax system is implemented in our country. The local government can get tax revenue as long as it inviting investment, but to the automobile industry, the promotion of consumption should change the VAT to the consumption tax and give the local more tax sharing. In addition, we should actively promote the landing of policies.

(editor Zhu Naijuan)