The Three Quarterly Report Of The Aquaculture Industry Under The "Super Cycle": Is The Era Of High Growth Coming?

The three quarter results of aquaculture rose again.

In October 9th, Wen's shares issued a sales bulletin. In September this year, the average selling price of the company's meat pig increased to 28.73 yuan / kg, much higher than the average cost of 15 yuan / kilogram of the third party research.

The three Quarterly Bulletin released on the same day showed that the net profit in the first three quarters was 5 billion 950 million yuan to 6 billion 150 million yuan, far higher than the 2 billion 900 million yuan in the same period last year.

The sharp rise in pork prices will break the price balance in the end consumer sector, and then have a derivative effect on alternatives such as chicken, cattle and sheep.

"Broiler industry profits are mainly concentrated in breeding links, the first half of the price of chicken has set a high price of 10 yuan per feather. In the past two days, the price of chicken breeds in Shandong has been refreshed again, and the price of big factories has reached 11.2 yuan / feather. Liu Xiaoying, an information broiler industry analyst, introduced in October 9th.

In her view, the three quarter of this year, the broiler industry can maintain a high degree of vitality, and the rising price of live pigs has triggered an incremental contribution. "As long as the price of pork remains high, the support for the demand side of the broiler industry will not disappear."

Substitution effect is good for chicken industry

Tian Bang has given a very detailed cost sample. "In August 2018, the total cost of farming was 13.10 yuan / kg."

However, after entering the 2019, the cost of epidemic prevention and environmental protection of aquaculture enterprises increased significantly. According to Zhuo Chuang information research, the average cost of domestic pig industry is around 15 yuan per kilogram.

In the first three quarters of this year, the average price of domestic pig sales increased to 13.04 kilograms, 15.55 kilograms and 23.71 yuan / kilograms respectively.

Although there are regional price differences, the average selling price of large scale leading companies such as Wen's shares is slightly lower, but the trend of synchronous rise is consistent with that. In July of this year, the average selling price of pig stock was still less than 17.37 yuan / kg, and increased to 28.73/ kg by September.

The new hope is slightly lower than the average selling price, but also increased from 15.84 yuan / kg in July to 26.75 yuan / kg in September.

The cost side remained stable and the price side went up all the way, which enabled pig breeding enterprises to pass the breakeven point in June this year, and the whole industry entered the performance release period, showing a trend of rising month by month.

The three quarterly bulletin of Wen's stock and herding stock is enough to explain. The latter reported a loss of 156 million yuan, and the three quarterly earnings forecast turned into a profit of 1 billion 300 million yuan to 1 billion 500 million yuan, equivalent to a single quarter profit of more than 1 billion 500 million yuan in the three quarter.

The rise of pig prices has also broken the consumption balance of terminal meat and has become an important variable to stimulate other meat prices to rise.

"The rise of broiler chickens was previously affected by the outbreak of avian influenza abroad, leading to a decrease in domestic introduction. But since the three quarter of the pig boom *, especially since September this year, the demand for chicken products has increased significantly, and the substitution effect has increased. Liu Xiaoying said.

On the evening of October 8th, the listed companies of the broiler industry, which issued the three quarter forecast, all achieved high growth. Among them, the largest volume of Sheng Nong development increased by 235.67% to 236.91%. While the profit base is lower and the breeding business is more concentrated, the net profit of the first three quarters is expected to achieve a nearly 10 fold increase.

It is understood that although the price of chicken has dropped from 10 yuan / feather to 2 yuan in June, the three quarter has started to rise again, so far the price of Shandong has hit 11.2 yuan / feather. The cost of domestic chicken is only 2.5 yuan / feather.

Even so, early "injured" farmers are still enthusiastic, chicken sales have entered the state of single row.

The four seasons are high.

After the first three quarters of the year's performance was finalized, there was a very limited change in the fundamentals of the aquaculture industry.

Among them, the pig industry still has the possibility of continuing to raise prices. According to Zhuo Chuang data, the average price of live pigs has risen to 34.18 yuan per kilogram in October 9th, and the rate of increase is no worse than that in August this year. It is one of the main reasons for breeding enterprises to actively keep seeds and raise pigs strategy.

Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, breeding enterprises had concentrated on selling less than heavy pigs, and sold 70 kilograms and 80 kilograms of live pigs ahead of schedule. At that time, terminal prices were still low, leading to a loss in the same period of the listed companies.

After the second half of the year, the profit margins rose sharply, and the epidemic became stable. Farming enterprises began to increase the value of single head by raising the weight of pig slaughtering, and to some extent, the supply side continued to shrink.

Take the industry leader as an example, Wen's stock sold 1 million 137 thousand and 300 pigs in August, down to 888 thousand in September, and 710 thousand and 900 yuan in August, and slightly increased to 725 thousand and 200 in September.

According to a * * pig feed enterprise feedback, do not look at the fourth quarter of this year pig raising supply side. This means that the high degree of vitality of the pig industry is at least in the fourth quarter of this year.

Similar to the situation in the broiler industry, domestic supply increased in the fourth quarter compared with the three quarter. However, the increase in demand for chicken products caused by the rise in pig prices has just hedged the impact of supply growth. However, there is no clear estimate of the increment of demand substitution.

It can only be said that at present, the broiler industry is in short supply and has not yet reached equilibrium. At least, there will be no significant change in the fourth quarter of this year, and the price of chicken products will remain high. " Liu Xiaoying said.

Benefiting from substantial growth in performance, some of the underlying valuation levels are not high. For example, the median net profit for the first three quarters of Yisheng shares was 1 billion 470 million yuan, and the 566 million quarter profit in the three quarter was 566 million yuan. If the single quarter profit in the four quarter could reach 500 million yuan, the net profit for the whole year was 1 billion 970 million yuan. According to this conversion, the company's annual earnings per share reached 3.42 yuan, with a closing price of 9 yuan for 25.04 yuan, the valuation is only 7.32 times. However, whether we can get the favor of the two tier market funds is still unknown.