Disturbance Of Spring Festival Factor February Trade Surplus Continued Narrowing

In March 8th, the data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in February, the total value of China's imports and exports was 1 trillion and 810 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 922 billion 760 million yuan, down 16.6%; imports 888 billion 300 million yuan, down 0.3%.

The analysis points out that the dislocation of cardinal numbers caused by the Spring Festival and the ebb and flow of "grab export" are the main reasons for the fall of exports in February. Due to the nearly half a month's advance of the Spring Festival this year, the export portion was advanced to January in February. Excluding the Spring Festival, China's imports and exports, exports and imports increased by 10.2%, 7.8% and 12.9% respectively in February.

In the first 2 months, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 4 trillion and 540 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 2 trillion and 420 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1%; imports of 2 trillion and 120 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; trade surplus of 308 billion 680 million yuan, narrowed 8.7%.

Since the second half of last year, China's foreign trade has been "grabbing exports" for more than a month, which has drawn a considerable part of this year's export demand. In addition, this year's world economy is weak, and the main trade partners' economic stagnation is weak. This year's Chinese foreign trade will face greater pressure.

Resonance of Spring Rush and Spring Festival disturbance

According to customs statistics, exports dropped sharply in February, and in February, exports declined by 16.6% in dollar terms. In dollar terms, the figure dropped by 20.7% over the same period last year.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that the base dislocation of the Spring Festival factor and the resonance of the "ebb tide" factor were the main reasons for the downward trend of export data in February.

He pointed out that before the Spring Festival festival, "grab export" and holiday after holiday often bring the fluctuation of foreign trade data at the beginning of the year. Last spring festival in February 16th, this year's Spring Festival is in February 5th. Foreign trade enterprises usually start off on the days before the Spring Festival. Most enterprises start after fifteen (February 19th). Due to the limited production time, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February is even greater.

"Before the Spring Festival, there is a" grab the export "effect. Last year," grab the export "mainly concentrated in the month of February, which raised the base; and this year's" grab export "mainly concentrated in January. This is the main reason for the sharp increase in export growth in January and the sharp decline in February. In fact, the year-on-year growth rate that combines the first two months can smooth the fluctuation of this growth rate.

The General Administration of Customs pointed out that in February, China's imports and exports, exports and imports increased by 10.2%, 7.8% and 12.9% respectively.

Bai Ming pointed out that in February, foreign trade was also facing another level of "rush to export". In the second half of last year, China's foreign trade has been "grabbing exports" for more than a month, which has drawn a considerable part of this year's export demand.

"After the start of late February, substantive progress was made in the Sino US negotiations. The US declaration said that the deadline for tariff escalation was postponed, and that a stone in the hearts of the importers and exporters fell to the ground. At that time, there was a possibility of" rush to export ". Bai Ming said.

Export reduction of labour intensive products

From the international market, China's trade growth with the United States, ASEAN, Japan and other trading partners has been significantly callback.

For 1-2 months, the total trade volume between China and the United States was 524 billion 970 million yuan, down 16.1%, accounting for 11.6% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, China exported 407 billion 530 million yuan to the United States, down 9.9%, imports from the United States 117 billion 440 million yuan, a decrease of 32.2%, and trade surplus with the United States increased by 290 billion 90 million yuan and 3.9%.

Bai Ming stressed that the global economy is highly interdependent and highly integrated. Trade friction will impact the global industrial chain and produce chain effect. "For example, many of the raw materials of China's exports to the United States come from ASEAN and other places. If the United States increases tariffs, China's imports from ASEAN will be reduced."

From the product point of view, the export of labor-intensive products has dropped significantly. 1-2 months, clothing exports 142 billion 900 million yuan, down 10.2%; textiles 119 billion 570 million yuan, down 3.2%; furniture 56 billion 810 million yuan, 1%; footwear 51 billion 510 million yuan, down 6.9%; plastic products 45 billion 270 million yuan, 6.2% 6.2%; bags and boxes 6.2% yuan, decreased by 45 billion 270 million; toy yuan yuan, growth;

In the view of Bai Ming, the fall in the export of labor-intensive products has both the drag on Tariffs in the short term and the long-term factors.

"Labor-intensive industries are mostly small profits, and the Levy of 10% tariffs will have a great impact. In the long run, this decline is also largely the result of international industrial transfer. Some enterprises are moving out of China due to the increase of labor costs and other factors and the increase of investment in some Southeast Asian countries.

External market fatigue

The growth rate of imports in February also dropped, priced at -0.3% in Renminbi and -5.2% in dollar terms, below market expectations.

Liu Jian, a research commissioner at the bank financial research center, pointed out that imports had been negative for three consecutive months in February, reflecting the continuing downward pressure on the economy. China's PMI index for manufacturing in February dropped to 49.2%, 3 consecutive months below the ups and downs. In addition, the international commodity price index continued to remain low. In February, it remained at around 412, down nearly 7% compared to the same period last year, and price factors also contributed to imports.

Huatai macro believes that the decline in import growth is limited relative to exports. Under the guidance of this year's policy of reducing taxes and lowering fees and increasing domestic demand, enterprises will start to buy raw materials after the lunar new year, which will enhance the resilience of import growth to a certain extent.

Bai Ming said that the growth rate of imports is not unique to China. The import of the world is slowing down. Recently, the imports of South Korea, Taiwan, China, Hongkong and Vietnam have dropped to varying degrees, which indicates that the world economic recovery is weak.

Several leading indicators indicate that the downward pressure on the global economy continues to increase. In the January macroeconomic forecast, IMF once again lowered its forecast of world economic growth from 3.7% to 3.5%. In the short term, the economic data of major trade partners such as the United States and the European Union are hard to pick up.

Bai Ming pointed out that under such a global economic environment, China's foreign trade will still be under pressure this year.

"From the outside, China's main trading partners are weak in economic growth and sluggish in external demand. China will face" double squeeze "from developed and developing countries in the medium and long term. From the domestic perspective, in the second half of last year, the "grab export" overdrew a considerable demand, and this year there is still a big downward pressure on the economy. Bai Ming said.

He pointed out that this year China will pay more attention to improving quality, efficiency and transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, which is no doubt a long way to go.