PTA Overhaul And Then Find A Short Opportunity.

Short term volatility

After the Saudi oil refining unit was attacked in September 14th, driven by the high price of crude oil, domestic chemical products generally came out of a wave of rising prices. However, with the decline of the event effect, the chemical products which were expected to rise earlier have been callback, among which PTA has the largest decline. Since the new high of 5456 yuan / ton in September 17, the price of the 2001 futures contract of the PTA futures market has been decreasing, and in September 30th, it has been down to 5036 yuan / ton. The following trend analysis is as follows:

PX cracking spreads remain low

At present, the price difference between PX and naphtha in Asia basically runs in the low price area of 307 US dollars / ton. In the Saudi oil field encountered unmanned aerial vehicle attacks, peripheral oil prices climbed sharply, PX still showed a weak growth.

As for the commissioning of the new plant, as of the end of September, China's new PX capacity includes Hengli Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand tons / year, Hongrun 600 thousand tons / year, Liaoyang Petrochemical capacity expansion 300 thousand tons / year, Hainan refining and chemical two phase 1 million tons / year total 6 million 400 thousand tons / year, an increase of 46% over the end of 2018. Hongrun plant achieved mass production in September. The Hainan refinery and Hengyi Brunei plant was commissioned in September. The Zhejiang Petrochemical plant plan was launched in October. The Dongying joint plant plan was put into operation in the 4 quarter. At present, there are still new capacity releases in the 4 quarter of PX.

In terms of maintenance, although there are still some refinery projects overhaul in Asia in the 4 quarter, the production capacity is significantly lower than the 2 quarter. In addition, some of the devices in October are being restarted, and the supply loss will be reduced.

PTA device overhauling function is limited.

By the end of September, PTA social inventory of 1 million 422 thousand tons, an increase of 277 thousand tons compared to the beginning of August, also significantly higher than the same period in 2018. The core of the subsequent supply side is the 1 phase of the new Feng Ming production capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons / year and the commissioning of Hengli petrochemical production capacity of 2 million 500 thousand tons / year. If these 2 sets of equipment can be successfully produced, they will bring the 10%PTA supply increment to the domestic market. The above devices will produce more than 400 thousand tons per month if they are loaded at full capacity, which undoubtedly puts pressure on PTA market.

Maintenance, October maintenance plan includes Hengli, Honggang, Hon Bang petrochemical and other devices, involving capacity of 4 million 300 thousand tons / year. If the above maintenance is implemented, then the PTA supply will shrink in October, and the market may be transferred to the inventory.

On the whole, the maintenance of PTA devices will help increase profits, but new devices will be put into production and the market will not be raised by overhaul.

Poor terminal demand performance

This year's traditional peak season appears to be "gentle". The profits of the downstream sectors of the textile industry chain are not good enough, the risk aversion is aggravated, and the willingness to expand business is not strong. At present, the operating rate of polyester enterprises is 88.78%, the loom's comprehensive starting rate is 70.83%, the overall stock of polyester is concentrated in 13-22 days, and the weaving factory's inventory is maintained for 39-40 days. Accumulated inventory, FDY into a loss, PTA prices downstream downstream conduction.

In addition, data showed that textile yarn, fabrics and products accumulated 79 billion 400 million US dollars in 1-8 months, an increase of 1% compared with the same period last year. The total retail sales of domestic textile and apparel were 842 billion 700 million yuan, up 3.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate of two was significantly lower than that of last year. The overall demand for textile industry is weaker than last year.

The following PTA installations have been overhauled, restarted and newly put into operation, and the overall operating rate has been reduced by a limited margin. At the same time, polyester plant operating rate dropped slightly, loom operating rate also failed to catch up. On the whole, the short-term PTA price will be sorted out, the mid term waiting for overhaul will be ended, and then the opportunity to sell high position will be found.