"Gold Nine Silver Ten" Is Coming To An End. This Year'S Market Is Obviously Weaker Than Last Year. How Will The Market Follow?

Recently, the two sides of the PTA have been playing games near the 5000 point. But in the early October 17th, they broke through 5000 points in one fell swoop, and futures prices fell below 5000 yuan / ton on that day.

In the summer of 2018, in the lower reaches of polyester production capacity growth rate higher than its own capacity growth, and the whole industry chain low inventory background, PTA price out of a huge bull market. It is understood that the current PX processing difference is below 300 US dollars / ton, PTA processing fee is below 600 yuan / ton, the relative valuation is already low, but the driving is still weak, so the PTA price is consolidated at the bottom, and the fluctuation rate is slowing down.

Cost side geopolitical risk premium rises

At present, the global crude oil market has a shortage of 1 million 600 thousand barrels per day, but it has been suppressed by the macro level. Since the 3 quarter, oil prices have maintained a broad trend of oscillation. The supply gap narrowed to 600 thousand barrels per day in the 4 quarter, which is still relatively tight. At the same time, Saudi Amy IPO is on the way, superposing geopolitical persistent disturbances. From a fundamental analysis, oil prices still have the possibility of overshoot.

Naphtha has been on the high side in recent years, coming out of a wave of independent rise compared with crude oil and gasoline and diesel. According to many understanding, after the attack of Saudi Arabia oil and gas separation plant in mid September, some of the separation devices have not been resumed. The following sub components in Saudi Arabia are difficult to effectively separate, making it difficult to sell propane and naphtha outside C5. Adding Saudi Arabia to ensure the supply of crude oil, through the direct combustion of light components of internal energy supply, below C5 components are more scarce, and thus rapidly promote naphtha cracking price difference and monthly difference. It is understood that the above situation may need to continue for a half to a month, so short term naphtha end support will be relatively strong.

Increase of PX and PTA maintenance under low processing cost

Since August, the load of PTA plant has been at a high level. However, PX enterprises have been losing money for a long time, a large number of PX devices have been overhauled, and they have been overhauled or downloaded from outside Indonesia, Lotte parking, internal Jinling Petrochemical, Qingdao Li Dong, Tenglong aromatics and Hainan refining and chemical industry. Under the environment of increasing demand and supply, PX resources continue to be tight, causing some downstream factories to reduce load. At the same time, the PTA processing fee is as low as 600 yuan / ton. Yifong Shanda reduced load operation, Honggang petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and Hon Bang have planned maintenance, and continue to inventory in October. However, PTA spot supply is still abundant, so the basis is difficult to strengthen, and the market contradiction is not outstanding.

Poor terminal demand performance

This year's traditional peak season appears to be "gentle". The profits of the downstream sectors of the textile industry chain are not good enough, the risk aversion is aggravated, and the willingness to expand business is not strong. At present, the operating rate of polyester enterprises is 92%, the loom's comprehensive starting rate is about 70%, the overall stock of polyester is concentrated in 13-22 days, and the weaving factory's inventory is maintained for about 40 days. Accumulated inventory, FDY into a loss, PTA prices downstream downstream conduction.

In addition, statistics show that in 2019 1-9, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 177 billion 440 million US dollars, down 1.99% from the same period last year, of which the total export volume of textiles was 891.585 US dollars, down 0.09% from the same period last year, and the total export volume of garments was 112 billion 794 million 700 thousand US dollars, down 4.74% from the same period last year. The two growth rates were significantly lower than last year. The overall demand for textile industry is weaker than last year.

Macroscopically, there is still greater uncertainty.

Since the beginning of this year, the Sino US economic and trade consultations have been repeated and the sensitivity of risk assets has gradually decreased, which means that the market has already digested some bad profits, waiting for a clearer signal. In the long run, Sino US economic and trade consultations can hardly be resolved through the one or two peace talks. This is a repeated process, which will force enterprises in all sectors of the industrial chain to make low inventory and low investment business initiatives, thereby suppressing long-term demand for commodities.

Based on this, 10-11 months due to the new plant has not yet put in place, superimposed processing fees have dropped to a low point, PTA may rebound. But considering that the new Feng Ming 1 million 100 thousand ton new plant is scheduled for trial run in the end of October, Hengli plans to put into operation 2 million 200 thousand tons in early January next year. After December this year, PTA is still a repository pattern, and the 2001 and 2005 contracts will still face stronger competition. Therefore, in the current state, long-term operation still needs to maintain a rebound and short selling strategy. The risk lies in the fact that the new plant is running less than expected. Source: Yongan futures