Zheng Cotton High Consolidation Cotton Spot And Seed Cotton Purchase Price Rise

Last week (October 14-18), Zheng cotton briefly rebounded last Monday, after the Sino US negotiation reached a good agreement. But a large number of new cotton and cold spot sales have quickly restored the calm of the market, and Zheng cotton began to consolidate on Tuesday. Spot price quotes and seed cotton purchase prices follow up with the futures market. No cotton mills have been buying up, and seed cotton acquisitions are relatively cautious. The purchase progress of seed cotton is generally slower than last year. In the southern Xinjiang, hand picked cotton is generally higher than 5-5.4 in previous years, and sales are mainly concentrated in civilian cotton, and spinning procurement is still dominated by 18 years of resources. Sales of cotton yarn have increased slightly, and prices have risen slightly less than cotton prices. The purchase price of seed cotton is higher than that of lint, some enterprises are raising prices, and some enterprises have reduced their profits and losses. Cotton price CNCottonB index price 12733 yuan / ton, week rose 61 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF2001 contract, spot premium 48 yuan / ton, week reduced 242 yuan / ton.

Futures. Zheng cotton's main contract CF2001 closed at 12685 yuan / ton on Friday, the week rose 305 yuan / ton, last Monday's rise has once again activated the market, the week traded 3511988 hands, the increase 105.1%, the position also increased 39780 hands, the increase 6.1%, the fund continues to flow. As at the end of September, Chen cotton stocks still had about 1 million 700 thousand tons, an increase of 640 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, and the monthly usage was only about 500 thousand tons. In September, textile exports decreased by 4.64%, down 7.85% compared to the same period last year. Although the Sino US negotiations have improved, it is still necessary to observe whether the order situation of the latter gauze can be resumed. The technology has been restructured for 40 days, and there is also a 60 day EMA. Judging from the data of public inspection, the new cotton horse in South Xinjiang is rather rough. At present, it is mainly sold with cotton wool, but the market demand is limited. If the horse value can not be improved at the later stage, the difficulty of sales increase can be increased, and only the warehouse receipts can be registered, which will form a pressure on the disk. Besides, China and the United States have a long way to negotiate. From the perspective of the negotiation process over the past year, there is still a lot of uncertainty behind, which brings unexpected unexpected profits to the cotton market.

Us disk: the Sino US negotiations achieved positive results, the US dollar index fell, the US disk continued to rise, the December contract closed at 65.17 cents / pound, and the week gained 117 points. The agreement between China and the United States has not yet been signed, and there is still uncertainty. The global economy is down, cotton consumption is decreasing, new cotton is on the market, production is increasing. Cotton prices continue to rise. It is necessary to continue to stimulate the following good results. This week there may be a callback arrangement. Continue to track the progress of trade negotiations and cotton weather.

On the spot. Futures rebounded, market confidence rose, cotton mills purchased spot slightly increased, but still cautious, cotton spot trading warmer, price center rose slightly. The mainland's 3128 hand picked Xinjiang cotton price is 12900-13300 yuan / ton, and Xinjiang cotton is 12500-12800 yuan / ton. As the external cotton rose faster than the inner cotton, the cost of the imported cotton increased, and the price of cotton fell upside down. The price of the outer cotton was short of advantage, and the customs clearance was reduced. Brazil quoted 13300-13800 yuan / ton, Australia cotton quoted 15500-16000 yuan / ton, West African cotton quoted 13000-13300 yuan / ton, and India cotton quoted 13100-13600 yuan / ton. There is no catch up purchase in the cotton mill. First, we should pay more attention to the post market situation, and the two is the shortage of funds and the lack of purchasing power.

Acquisition of new cotton. Futures have stabilized and rebounded, confidence in seed cotton acquisitions has increased, and acquisition progress has been accelerated. The monitoring system indicates that the country has acquired 1 million 830 thousand tons of new cotton, and overall progress is slower than last year. Acquisition price rose, southern Xinjiang picked up 5.6-6 yuan / kg, North Xinjiang 4.8-5.2 yuan / kg. New cotton purchase costs increase, profits shrink, and risks rise. South Xinjiang is expensive, and sales will encounter difficulties. Larger inventory enterprises appeared to reduce the wait and see phenomenon.

Operation suggestion. China and the United States have a long way to negotiate. There are still many uncertainties. Chen cotton has plenty of stock. It is also necessary to observe whether consumption can be resumed later. In the large area, the price is in the lower position at present, but the short-term fluctuation is unavoidable. Enterprises need to define their operational thinking according to their own position, decide to move after that, and maintain the strength of execution. We will continue to pay attention to the weather in the cotton region and the progress of Sino US negotiations.