Multiple Negative Factors Superimposed Polyester Filament In A New Low Year

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of domestic polyester filament market dropped in October, the lowest price in the year. Polyester POY decreased significantly, pet POY (150D/48F) rose to the market average price of 7074 yuan / ton, 8.20% lower than the beginning of the month, 19.11% lower than the beginning of the year, and the average price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) was 7456 yuan / ton, down 5.19% from the beginning of the month, 18.26% lower than the beginning of the year; the average price of polyester DYT (150D/48F low elastic) market was 8851 yuan / ton, which was 5.03% lower than the beginning of the month, decreasing by 13.94% compared with the beginning of the year.

Raw material PTA spot market prices also continued to decline, crude oil rose in late January and its own device centralized maintenance to boost, rebounded slightly. Even though there are many sets of device maintenance at the supply side, the current load is near 87%, but because of the new capacity coming soon, the market is pessimistic about the future supply and demand of PTA, so the PTA price has dropped again, and has fallen into a weak pattern. As of October 30th, the average price of the market was 4955 yuan / ton, down 4.03% from the beginning of the month, the lowest price in the year, 14.91% lower than the beginning of the year.

On the downstream side, although the order of "golden nine silver ten" has increased in the traditional peak season, the actual order situation has not been substantially improved. The terminal market is still at a low temperature. The textile enterprises have maintained normal operation, but they are mainly processing orders, maintaining fixed customer sources. The raw materials for new orders are also maintained with purchase and caution. At the same time, high inventory of grey cloth also makes the market generally pessimistic about future expectations. At present, the comprehensive boot rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 78%, and the terminal market is cautious and wait-and-see.

In terms of textile industry, according to the textile index of business associations, the textile index was 874 points in October 29th, down 2 points from 876 points at the beginning of the month, down 24.39% from the 1156 point (2018-09-03) of the cycle, which was 22.24% higher than that of 2016 17. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date). On the export side, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2019, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 24 billion 520 million US dollars, a decrease of 4.64% compared to the same period, a decrease of 7.85% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of textiles (including textiles, yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to $9 billion 764 million 600 thousand, a decrease of 7.88% compared to the same period last year, and exports of clothing (including clothing and accessories) were 14 billion 755 million US dollars, down 7.83% from the same period last year. In 2019 1-9, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 177 billion 440 million US dollars, down 1.99% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 891.585 US dollars, down 0.09% from the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 112 billion 794 million 700 thousand US dollars, down 4.74% from the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that factory profits will be further compressed under the combination of multiple negative factors. High inventory and low production and marketing modes will be staged again. The raw material market PTA is in the low processing section operation stage, and the load of the device is down, which will form a certain support for the market. However, the PTA will continue to weaken when the new capacity is put into effect in the future. Orders for the downstream terminal market have not been significantly improved. With the advent of the traditional off-season, demand will become more and more deserted. On the whole, in the absence of substantial stimulation, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will continue to trend downward in November.