What Is The Way Out For The Local Leisure Clothing? The US And Semir Are Doing Their Best.

002269.SZ, the "American state" and the Semir apparel (002563.SZ, hereinafter referred to as "Semir") released the three quarterly report in 2019.

In 2019, the three quarterly report revealed that the revenue of the US dollar was 4 billion 34 million yuan, down 27.27% compared with the same period last year, and the net loss was 238 million yuan, a sharp decline of 692.42% compared to the same period last year, and a net loss of 99 million 902 thousand and 800 yuan in the first three quarters. Semir's three quarterly report disclosed revenue in 2019 was 13 billion 261 million yuan, an increase of 35.82% over the same period last year, with net profit of 1 billion 307 million yuan, up 2.79% over the same period last year.

In addition, the United States first released the 2019 annual report results announcement, claiming that the company's performance was the first loss, the forecast loss will reach 500 million to 1 billion yuan.

In October 30th, the two stocks fell, while the US bond fell 7.02% to 2.25 yuan per share, while Semir fell 10.02% to 11.4 yuan per share.

　　 Behind the ice and fire

Semir, founded in 1995 and founded in 2002, has captured the high growth period of Chinese local casual wear after 2000, and has grown into a local casual wear head enterprise. However, in recent years, the development paths of the two enterprises have been significantly different, and the corresponding performance gap is also growing.

In October 8, 2018, it issued a notice on the completion of equity delivery with KIDILIZ, a high-end children's clothing company in France. After buying all assets of KIDILIZ group with 110 million euros (844 million yuan), Semir has become the second largest children's clothing company in the world.

From the semi annual report released by Semir in 2019, we can see that the net income of the first half of the year, the net profit to the mother and the net profit to the female parent were 8 billion 219 million yuan, 722 million yuan and 669 million yuan respectively, representing an increase of 48.57%, 8.2%, and 8.02% respectively. The two quarter income, the net profit to the mother and the net profit to the female parent were 4 billion 102 million yuan, 375 million yuan and 356 million yuan respectively. The growth rate was 35.81%, 35.81%, and 35.81% respectively, and the results were all up to expectations, but the profit growth rate was obviously lower than that of the revenue growth. Semir said the reason for the sharp increase in revenue was in the first half of the year and KIDILIZ group. At the same time, as KIDILIZ Group continued to lose money, its profit growth rate was significantly lower than that of the revenue growth.

As of the semi annual report released in 2019, the number of shops under Semir reached 9404, of which 5526 were children's clothing stores. From the category, the leisure wear income reached 2 billion 944 million yuan, an increase of 12.15% over the previous year (20.54% in 2018), and the income of Semir children's clothing was about 3 billion 730 million yuan, an increase of 29.98% over the same period. The children's wear plate (including Barbara, Macal, minibalabla and KIDILIZ) continued to maintain rapid growth.

Unlike Semir's main business growth and fast growth in children's clothing business, its revenue in the first quarter of 2019 was 1 billion 728 million, down 20.68% compared to the same period last year. Net profit to parent was 38 million 350 thousand, down 23.92% compared to the same period last year. Net profit of 36 million 700 thousand was not 22.68%. After that, the situation of the semi annual report declined sharply, the growth rate further declined, and the deficit expanded significantly, showing that the revenue was 2 billion 698 million yuan, down 31.47% compared to the same period last year, with a net loss of 138 million yuan, a decrease of 359.61% compared with the same period last year. The three quarterly net loss further expanded to 238 million yuan, a sharp decline of 692.42% compared with the same period last year.

As for the number of online stores, the United States has also experienced rapid growth to shrink, from more than 5200 stores in the peak period in 2011 to less than 4000 in 2016. Although nearly two years ago, the United States proposed a parallel development strategy of "shopping mall" and "100 cities and thousand stores", and opened many new shops, but the overall size still had a gap with Semir.

In March this year, Tianfeng securities issued a research report. It believed that the United States would pay attention to the main garment industry again. After three years of brand upgrading and matrix combing, refining its brand style, promoting channels and retail upgrading, 2019 will become the turning point of its net profit. The bottom of the company's performance has passed, and net interest rate can rise to around 10% in 3 years. But the decline in performance and net losses from the two quarter has been increasing. It is very difficult to turn over the last quarter. I am afraid that the prediction of the inflection point will be lost.

Yang Dayun, a brand management expert in China's apparel industry, analyzed the huge gap between the two countries of the US and Semir in the first financial journalist. The main reason is the management style. Semir is a relatively stable enterprise. It keeps steady and steady, concentrating on the main business and product management of the garment industry, and constantly upgrading and upgrading. The style of the United States is relatively open. It has tried various methods, including many brands, O2O and many other formats, but all of them failed, and these failed attempts also brought great harm to the growth of the United States.

"The competition environment of domestic casual wear market is relatively loose around 2000, and the United States and Semir both seize the opportunity and expand rapidly to achieve high growth and high returns. With ZARA, H&M, GAP, UNIQLO and other fast fashion and leisure brands entering the Chinese market, the casual wear market is becoming saturated. The domestic casual wear brands represented by the United States and Semir are facing enormous pressure. When Semir's main brand grew slowly, it caught the high growth period of children's clothing. When competition was getting into a stalemate, the children's wear brand balbala won the time and space for the strategic adjustment of Semir, and also laid a good foundation for its subsequent growth. When its main brand fell into decline, the United States did not have any corresponding brand in other markets. Yang Dayun believes that when the market competition is fiercest, the two companies' strategies are different, and the results obtained are totally different. The gap will become more and more obvious.

　　 The way out for domestic casual wear

Each brand will go through the process of rapid growth to decline in growth and brand aging. At present, many clothing brands are facing the problem of brand aging and weak growth. Behind them, besides the changes in market supply and demand, the demand growth is slowing down, the brand of electric business suddenly rises, and the demand for consumers is increasingly diversified. It also makes the market more complicated.

In 2018, the United States achieved revenues of 7 billion 665 million yuan, an increase of 18.42% over the same period last year, and the net profit from the parent company has been transferred from negative to positive, achieving 42 million 910 thousand yuan, an increase of 114% over the same period last year. It has achieved the first two digit growth since 2012. However, the growth of the first three quarters of 2019 has once again changed, and the US state has already tried to break through many different levels.

Yang Dayun believes that the competitive pressures faced by different stages of competition are different. At this stage, the difficulty and cost of US bond are greater.

Mei bang and Semir have seized the chance of high growth of China's casual wear market, and quickly surpassed the earlier leading brands of JEANSWEST, Baleno, Giordano and other brands in casual wear area. Later, they were also impacted by fast fashion brands and e-commerce brand.

In the future, how can China's local casual wear brands break through the current predicament? Yang Dayun said there are two ways to pay attention: first, we should segment the market strategically, and the future is a small group, that is, the mass market, because personalized and diversified consumption is a major trend of future growth; two, we need to look at the Chinese market based on the global perspective, and internationalize in product design, R & D and supply chain rapid response. Under the condition that the Chinese market tends to be saturated, we must break through the plight of the domestic market from the global market, which is more attractive to China's young and more international consumer groups.