In The First Week Of November, The LNG Price Fell Sharply, And The Supply Situation In Winter Was Optimistic.

In the first week of November, the price of LNG went through the biggest ups and downs this year.

In October 30th, the national LNG price index was only 3744 yuan / ton. By November 1st, the national LNG price index was as high as 4542 yuan / ton, or more than 21%. On the 2 day, the factory ex factory price of some manufacturers rushed to 4700 yuan / ton, or 2.

However, such a rally did not last long. On the 3-4 day, the price had slowed down to 4000-4400 yuan / ton, and the price of individual factories dropped by 700 yuan / ton. From the national average price, this round of rise began in October 30th, and after November 2nd, prices began to fall.

It is reported that last week, the raw material price of Northwest raw material auction was raised to 1.57 yuan / square, and the final transaction price was 2.6-2.75 yuan / square. Driven by cost, the factory price of domestic LNG factories began to rise, and this year the market is extremely short of important good news. The market mentality has played an important role in this round of rising.

In addition, according to our reporter, several northern LNG receiving stations have received notice that the ex factory price increase has been limited to 150-300 yuan / ton, which has played an important price stabilizing role in the process of price rise. "This round of gains is mainly driven by market sentiment and there is no basic market support." Guo Jian, an information analyst, told the twenty-first Century economic report, "by November 15th, when the heating season is coming, there may be another wave of rise, when there will be more supply and demand factors."

Steady growth in demand

Judging from the whole year of 2019, the high growth rate of natural gas consumption is no longer, and the annual operation is stable.

According to the national development and Reform Commission data, in the first three quarters, the output of natural gas was 127 billion 610 million cubic meters, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year. The import volume of natural gas was 97 billion 410 million cubic meters, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year. The apparent consumption of natural gas was 222 billion 460 million cubic meters, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year.

"The increase in import volume, consumption and output is almost the same. In this case, the supply of the market in the first three quarters is very abundant." A central enterprise official told reporters that "this situation may change after winter, but there is little guarantee of supply."

According to the Beijing world oil and gas consultation, the demand for natural gas in China was 298 billion 900 million cubic meters in 2019, an increase of 24 billion 700 million over the same period last year, an increase of 9%. It can be seen that both increments and growth rates are far below 2017 and 2018.

"First of all, such a slowdown is related to the slowdown in economic growth, and at the same time, the degree of restraint of domestic environmental policies has eased, and the scale of coal to gas has also been smaller than that of the previous two years." Yang Jianhong, chief analyst of Beijing world innovation consulting company, told reporters. "According to past years, the biggest supply pressure in winter is from the end of December to January. If this stage is able to pass smoothly, the overall problem is not big."

It is also because of this situation, this year's LNG prices remain low. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the average price in October this year was 3655 yuan / ton, which was nearly 1000 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 4507 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

"The low price is the theme of this year's market. From the whole year, the market is extremely short of the theme of price increase and speculation." Guo Jian told reporters.

Follow up, until the heating season this year, it is unlikely that there will be a clear signal affecting the supply and demand of the market, LNG prices continue to rise, lack of basic support.

Adequate supply in winter

This year, three barrels of oil have increased the intensity of coordinated gas supply. At present, the supply of winter supplies is relatively adequate.

According to CNOOC, the global LNG market is showing a situation of oversupply this year. In 2019 1-8, the global LNG supply was about 2.4 billion tons, an increase of about 15% over the same period. It is estimated that the new LNG capacity will be the highest since 2009.

As a demand side, the growth rate of LNG imports in Asia has slowed down significantly. The import volume of LNG in 1-8 months is about 1.6 billion tons, up only about 4% compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the price of the world's major natural gas markets has continued to decline this year. In November 2019, the spot price in Northeast Asia was about $6 / million British thermal units, down nearly 50% from the same period last year. Taking into account the project output, new projects put into operation and regional market demand, it is estimated that the international LNG market will continue to supply a relaxed situation in the 2019-2020 quarter of the heating season.

It is reported that there are still some surplus supply capacity of China CNOOC receiving stations in this winter and spring. In terms of liquid loading capacity, North China, East China and Southern China have surplus capacity every day. There are also surplus in Southern China and North China.

"CNOOC plans ahead of schedule and takes measures to ensure that this year's natural gas supply is well prepared for resource procurement, deployment of LNG receiving stations and gas supply arrangements," he said. These people told reporters that "CNOOC has the ability to play a bigger role in ensuring the supply of peaks this winter."

PetroChina related personage briefed reporters that in domestic resource production, domestic gas production increased by 9% in 1-9. The next step will continue to increase investment in exploration and development, surface construction, storage and transportation facilities, and strive to increase production and production of major gas fields such as Changqing, Tarim and southwest China.

In terms of diversification of import resources, we will continue to enhance the capacity of natural gas supply in the import pipeline, arrange the operation of imported natural gas pipelines according to the maximum capacity, and purchase spot LNG resources before winter, so as to ensure the stable and reliable supply of imported resources and ensure the normal supply of gas on the Sino Russian Eastern Line in December.

In addition, since 2018, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Energy Bureau have vigorously promoted the interconnection of the natural gas pipeline network and the LNG receiving station facilities of the three major oil companies, and have made significant progress. It is reported that the "three big oil" company will start the supply of natural gas resources from the beginning of November to ensure that interconnection projects play the biggest role in natural gas supply in winter.