2015-2019 Year Import Trend Of PX

1. 2015-2019 year import trend of PX

chart One 2015-2019 Annual PX import volume change trend chart

As can be seen from the above figure, the import volume of PX increased year by year in the 2015-2018 years, and the import volume dropped slightly in 2019. Among them, the year of the end of 2018 was the highest year of PX import in the past year, and in 2015, the growth rate of PX imports was the highest.

chart 22019 PX monthly import volume change trend chart

As can be seen from the above figure, the import volume of PX in 2019 showed a downward trend overall. After June, the import volume decreased significantly. The most import month in the year was January, the import value was 1 million 484 thousand tons, the lowest import month was June, and the import value was 982 thousand tons.

Tenglong aromatics explosion in 2015, 2015-2018 years, the import volume of PX increased year by year. In 2015, only 1 million 600 thousand tons of gold and gold were put into operation. In the 2016-2018 years, no new installations were put into operation in the PX market, domestic demand grew steadily, and the dependence of PX imports increased year by year. In 2018, the import volume reached 15 million 908 thousand tons and the import dependency reached 59%. In 2019, the total PX capacity increased to 6 million 380 thousand tons in the year. In 2019, the import volume of PX decreased slightly compared with that in 2018. The initial import volume was 15 million tons, down 908 thousand tons compared with 2018. In the long run, the volume of domestic PX production will be gradually reduced, and the domestic PX market is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand in 2022. Let's make a detailed analysis of the changes in the import of PX in 2019 and compare the changes in the countries of origin in 2018.

chart Three Two thousand and eighteen PX countries of origin chart Four Two thousand and nineteen 1-9 PX Country of origin of imports

Analysis of reasons for PX import changes in two and 2015-2019 years

In the first half of 2019, China's PX import dependency showed a gradual decline. In January, the import volume of PX was 1 million 484 thousand tons, and the dependence on imports was 59.5%. By June, the import volume of PX had been reduced to 982 thousand tons, the decrease was 33.8%, and the dependence degree of PX imports was reduced to 44%. In June, the import volume was the lowest in the whole year, and there was a direct reason for the reduction of enterprises in India area. According to long Zhong statistics, the PX social inventory in June dropped to 206 thousand tons, which was the largest number of months in the year. At the same time, China entered the new production capacity of PX, and in March 24, 2019, a good news came from Hengli 20 million ton / year refinery and chemical integration project. The project has successfully opened up the whole production process, producing gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, aromatics and other products. Since then, the first line PX device is close to full production in mid May, and the second line device starts in May 9th. 6 in the early part of the month, Hengli petrochemical PX two sets of devices were running at full capacity, and the monthly output was near 360 thousand tons. There were minor problems in the following installations. The monthly output fell to 300 thousand tons in 7-8 months, and continued to return to normal level in September. Therefore, the import volume of PX showed a narrow upward trend in 7-8 months. In August, Liaoyang petrochemical PX plant expanded 230 thousand tons, Sinochem 600 thousand tons PX device to achieve full load operation, daily output of 1700-1800 tons, in September Hainan refining 1 million tons / year PX products sold outside, making the PX import volume in the second half of the whole is lower than the first half of the year, and September import volume decreased significantly, to 1 million 152 thousand tons.

The launch of the new device is bound to affect the import of foreign PX. From the above chart, we can see that the proportion of PX imports in Taipu, Jinma, customs, Korea and Japan has decreased. The volume of PX arrivals in Taiwan has dropped one place, and Thailand has dropped out of the top 5.

PX in Korea and Japan has been exported to China for a long time, accounting for 50%-70% of domestic imports. Over the years, the number of PX imported to China accounts for more than half of the domestic energy. In the 1-5 month of 2019, the amount of PX imported from Korea to the domestic market did not change significantly, and the most obvious decline was in June. The volume of PX in Japan also decreased significantly in June. The main reason is that the export volume of PX in the two countries is much larger than that in Dalian. With the commissioning of Hengli PX plant, the volume of PX exports to China has decreased significantly. In June, the largest PX producer in Japan, JX has been down to 80% for a long time.

The amount of import from Taiwan to China has been reduced by more than half since May. The main reason is that the explosion occurred in April 7th, and the three line 870 thousand ton / year PX plant stopped until mid June. The shutdown of Taiwan chemical fiber three line is the direct cause of the reduction of PX external transportation.

In the first half of the year, the maintenance time of PTTGC and Thailand oil in Thailand was 1-2 months, which is the reason why the number of PX exports to China has decreased significantly.