No Fear Of Decline, Long-Term Optimistic About International Testing Institutions Active Layout Of China'S New Energy Vehicle Market

Song Wenhui photo

Although China's new energy vehicle market has been in the doldrums for several months, there are still long-term enterprises optimistic about this market and active layout. Recently, during the seventeenth Guangzhou international auto show, the number of new cars was reduced to 182. The number of new energy vehicles was increased by more than 20% compared with 150 last year.

According to an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report, the third party testing and certification body, T, V, South Deutsche group (hereinafter referred to as "T V V") opened its new energy vehicle testing laboratory in Changzhou this month, that is, South new energy automobile (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. This is the third lab in the world covering mono module, module and system in Germany and Canada. It is also the largest power battery testing base with the largest investment amount in the world. At the same time, the T Guangzhou V laboratory has been partially operational and is expected to open in the second quarter of 2020.

"We are sure that the market trend of new energy vehicles in China is good, including vehicle type, reliability, export and so on." Xu Hailiang, managing director of NAD new energy automotive testing (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd., told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report, "therefore, demand is already pressing. We need to accelerate investment."

No fear of "labor pains"

Since July this year, subsidies and other factors have affected the domestic new energy vehicle market, which seems to have entered a "labor pains" period. From the data point of view, sales of new energy vehicles have declined for 4 consecutive months, and the decline has not shown signs of narrowing. Earlier analysis has pointed out that according to the current trend, this year is likely to appear in the first ten years of negative sales growth for the first time.

However, Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan (Stephan Wollenstein) said during the recent Guangzhou auto show that although it may not be as fast as before, it is still optimistic that the new energy vehicle market will continue to grow in 2020. The company plans to launch 30 new energy vehicles produced in China by 2025 and complete the target of over 35% of new energy vehicles in the overall product mix. To this end, Volkswagen will launch 14 new brand new energy vehicles by the end of 2019, and hopes to achieve sales of 1 million 500 thousand new energy vehicles in China by 2025. By 2028, more than half of the group's new energy vehicle sales will come from the Chinese market.

In November 26th, Fang Yinliang, Roland Begg's global partner and vice president of Greater China, told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that the trend of new energy vehicle market really needs to be divided into long term and short term. In the long run, the development prospect of the new market is still good. "Whether China or the whole world, the medium and long-term support policy is relatively stable. After accumulating such a long time, in fact, infrastructure, law, user acceptance and so on are also being further promoted. He said, "from the long-term fundamentals of the market, it is still a good trend."

In addition, Fang Yin Liang also pointed out that at present, the mainstream car factory has almost started the layout of new energy vehicles on the whole line, and many brands have been or are about to release the latest version of electric vehicles. "So I believe that mainstream manufacturers are starting to see this as a strategic medium and long-term focus and start with better products." He said.

But in the short term, there are still many disadvantages. "The whole car market is not particularly ideal, at such a time point, consumers themselves will be more cautious." Fang Yinliang said, "if you look at the" short term "again, this round of the five standard to the six national standard switching period, a large number of countries five discount vehicles to enter the market, cost-effective, this has a short-term replacement effect for new energy vehicles.

This is also a "shuffle" period. He said, "we may still have the attitude of holding money."

In response, Xu Hailiang told reporters on the twenty-first Century economic report that the slowdown in the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market and even shuffling, can not be said to be no prediction. "The subsiding of subsidies may cause many demands to be suppressed." He analyzed that consumers will also choose to wait and see. In considering buying options, they will also consider whether car companies can provide long-term and stable maintenance in the future. In addition, a group of car companies' products will be listed in the period from 2017 to 2019, which will also lead to the slow opening of the gap. "This gap is bound to intensify competition and may take some time to digest."

"Any market, to a certain extent, will inevitably face competition." Xu Hailiang said, "but from the perspective of more macro energy and environment, the trend of the growth of new energy vehicles will not change." He said that before 2018, the supply and demand relationship of new energy vehicle detection market is still far greater than demand, and test resources are very scarce.

According to introduction, T V South Changzhou new energy vehicle testing laboratory was planned in 2017 and began to land in 2018. Through site selection, decoration, equipment introduction and personnel in place, as well as personnel and equipment running in, the end of 2019 officially opened.

Xu Hailiang pointed out that the launch of Changzhou laboratory is the result of the trend of T V Nan de optimistic about the market trend of China's new energy vehicle. In fact, the company has already made the laboratory layout according to the three regions of North, central and south, and has chosen the location to provide service for customers in the near future.

There is still a way out of "balance".

In the hot market of new energy vehicles, some problems and hidden dangers of new energy vehicles have also attracted media and public attention in recent years. According to the statistics published by T V South Germany, according to the media, from 2011 to 2014, the domestic fire accidents of new energy vehicles were reported at 4 or below, and from 2015 to 2016, they rose rapidly to 14 and 29. From 2017 to 2018, the total number was 59 and there were 40 cases since then.

According to the analysis of T V South Germany, based on public information statistics, although mechanical, environmental, overheating, and electrical abuse are triggers of some accidents caused by thermal runaway, many accidents still result from unknown thermal runaway, which brings great challenges to the safety of batteries. Therefore, reliability and abuse testing may largely identify potential risks of thermal runaway.

But Xu Hailiang also pointed out that although there are many accidents, but the overall number and proportion of the new energy vehicle battery related accident is not "fierce as tiger." This is more of a phenomenon that the development of new energy vehicles is too fast. Today's market is still away from the "balance".

Xu Hailiang believes that the concern of the outside world on the safety of new energy vehicles is, to a certain extent, contributing to the reversal of the market's "balance" problem. "That is, from the earlier shipment, quick listing, more attention to quality." He said, "a better, safer and more reliable car can go farther. This change is the inevitable process for new industries to go through. "

He pointed out that in the strict sense, the listing of any product must first be fully developed and verified. In the automotive or battery industry, it is necessary to rely on adequate testing. "Use full or even extreme tests to simulate some scenarios that might happen, and see what the battery may cause." He said, "whoever does enough will be more secure."

But it also brings contradictions. "If you want to be fully, comprehensive and strict, the time to market will be affected." Xu Hailiang said, "so we hope to avoid many problems through testing, verification and certification to help customers reach a relatively good balance in terms of safety and time to market." He further explained, "this is also a common phenomenon in other industries. The more fully competitive and the larger the market, the more important and stable the value of the third party (testing and certification) will be."

In addition, according to Fang Yinliang, the current monitoring can be divided into two categories. The first is the mandatory testing of the state, which is similar to the 3C certification of electronic consumer goods. It is a basic safety and admittance detection. The purpose is to ensure that all products coming out in the future meet the basic requirements of the state in terms of safety. The other is marketization detection. "Every enterprise needs to test the performance and limits of products when they are doing product development." He said, "on the one hand, the development of new energy vehicles is relatively early, and it is not clear that all of our equipment is complete. On the other hand, enterprises like new power making cars will also borrow external forces to do related tests. Therefore, the market related detection services will have greater demand.