PTA Device Restart VS Polyester Reduction, Production And Supply Contradiction Intensified, How Will The Polyester Market In The End Of The Year Run?

The overhaul of PTA devices in October led to short-term tight spot. Since October, in order to hedge the supply impact of the 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA plant, the maintenance of PTA plant has increased. Among them, Hengli petrochemical, Hon Bang petrochemical and other large plant units have opened maintenance. As the new Feng Ming started production at the end of October, it only opened a 1 million 100 thousand ton / year production line, and another 1 million 100 thousand tons / year production line was planned to go into operation at the end of November. Therefore, since October, the PTA maintenance tide has not only offset the impact of new capacity, but also reduced the PTA social inventory in the downstream polyester demand. As of November 22nd, the PTA social inventory was 1 million 297 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.11% compared with the previous week, an increase of 69.19% over the previous year. Inventory continued to decline, resulting in a tight spot in the near future.

New Feng Ming's trial run at the end of the month will be restarted, and the tight PTA spot will gradually ease. According to the present PTA The operation of the plant is in the near future. PTA Supply is expected to gradually improve. First of all, Hainan Yisheng Two hundred Ten thousand tons / Year PTA The device was restarted on Monday, Jiaxing petrochemical. One hundred and fifty Ten thousand tons / Year PTA The device was restarted on Monday, Ya Dong petrochemical. Seventy Ten thousand tons / Year PTA Device plan Eleven month Twenty-seven Restart, Xin Fengming One hundred and ten Ten thousand tons / New year PTA Capacity is expected to be Eleven Put into operation at the end of this month. Therefore, in anticipation of the above devices being restarted and put into operation, PTA Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the tight cash position will be eased.

According to the plan of the Spring Festival maintenance announced by some polyester enterprises this week, polyester is expected to further reduce production pressure in the first half of 12, and a larger scale reduction will occur in late December and beyond. For example, there are already clear plans for maintenance, such as Fujian's 100 Hong, Jingwei, Xiang Lu, Jinxing, Shaoxing Tiansheng, Taicang Shen Jiu, Changle, Zhen Hui, and so on. The plan for reducing the Spring Festival has been hammered out, starting from the middle and early December, and starting from the beginning of January. Therefore, from the trend of polyester load, it is expected to start a small downward trend in the first half of 12. Most maintenance should focus on the time points of late December or early January.

From the trend, the downstream start-up rate will fall further in the first half of 12. It is now understood that some of the larger inventory pressure enterprises, especially some of the larger water storage weaving enterprises, are planning to stop production in the middle of December, when the downstream start-up rate is relatively clear. In the late December to early January, this will be the peak period of the downstream centralized stop production, and a small part of the business will be better.

From the comparison of grey fabric inventory, the overall inventory level of grey fabric is relatively high. From the structure of grey fabric inventory, it mainly focuses on Waterjet weaving enterprises, and warp knitting machines and circular machines are still good. The order of double eleven and Christmas is less than last year, which is also true. Because of the early spring festival this year, the stock rate of many enterprises is still dominated by storehouse, and raw material purchase is also cautious. As for subdivision links, conventional varieties have not been selling well this year, such as spring sub spinning polyester taffeta, orders have been basically cool. Differentiated varieties from the previous T400 to the production of winter fabrics are indeed good, which is also a major reason for the slight decline in grey fabric inventory.

In the future, the price of polyester will remain weak, and some of the products will continue to be shipped. However, if the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States is successfully signed, matching with the concentrated purchase replenishment at the end of the year, it may also lead to a wave of bottom market, but the overall strength is expected to be limited.