Live Bonus Is Hard To Cover Up Growth And Fatigue: Mystery And New Way Out

In the past 20 years, many social networking products have emerged in an endless stream. They have built a social network covering a very wide range of fields, drawing a great deal of color for the history of Internet in China.
From word to video, from tool socialization to content social interaction, domestic Internet social interaction has been constantly innovating in the trend of market development and user needs. Taking this step from acquaintances to strangers is also a key milestone.
The unfamiliar street, which always walks in the forefront of strangers' social relations, announced the earnings report for the Q3 quarter of 2019 in November 26th. From the earnings report alone, the unfamiliar street of 19 consecutive quarters of profits showed its strength, but the stock price that fell immediately was somewhat puzzled.
　　 19 quarter earnings can hardly conceal growth and weakness
Since the beginning of the Internet development, the space characteristics of social self centered radiation have begun to weaken on the Internet. Strangers' social activities are beginning to show signs, but their potential has not been thoroughly excavated until 2011.
In August 2011, a location based open mobile social networking application was launched. In less than a month, it was on the App Store free list of third, and the number of users has exceeded 10 million in one year.
In recent 8 years, the domestic Internet market has undergone several changes, and the social market is surging. However, in the social field of strangers, unfamiliar street still occupies the first place in the industry. Over 40 million of the installed capacity is far ahead of other similar software, and its exploration performance is also good.
In the three quarter of this year, the revenue of unfamiliar street was 4 billion 452 million yuan (about 622 million 800 thousand US dollars), an increase of 22% over the same period last year, exceeding the analyst's estimated revenue of US $605 million 250 thousand. While the overall revenue is improving, unfamiliar street ushered in its nineteenth quarter continuous profit with net profit of 891 million.
Before the release of the earnings report, the market still had considerable expectations for the continuous profit of up to 18 quarters. However, after the release of the earnings report, the price of the unfamiliar street did not maintain its due level, falling by more than 10%, and its market value fell to $7 billion 500 million. Unfamiliar street seems to be a good overall financial report, but it is hard to win market recognition, and there is a lack of capital to pay for it.
From the various business segments of the unfamiliar street, the overall slowdown has become the biggest predicament of the development of the unfamiliar street. The continuous profit in the 19 quarter of the past 4 years can not make up for the growth of the company.
In the first quarter of 2018, the revenue of unfamiliar street was 2 billion 764 million yuan, an increase of 64% over the same period, while the revenue growth of unfamiliar street in the third quarter of 2018 was still as high as 51%. However, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of unfamiliar street has always been below 40%, and this quarter is even lower to 22%.
The slowdown in revenue growth has nothing to do with the growth of business in unfamiliar streets. In the first quarter of this year, the revenue growth of the unfamiliar street business has dropped from 75% in the first quarter of last year to 18%. Value added service revenue of 1 billion 65 million yuan was 86% higher than that of the same period last year, but it was eclipsed by the growth rate of 169% in the previous quarter.
The same slowdown in the growth of advertising and game business. In the first quarter, the growth of advertising revenue in unfamiliar street was 30% lower than that in the same period last year, and the growth rate of game business has dropped to 43% compared with the third quarter of last year. From the earnings report, the growth of the non core businesses of the unfamiliar street, whether it is the core live broadcast business or advertising and games, has been varying degrees of problems. For this reason, although the unfamiliar side has explained, it can not change the reality of the bottleneck of the unfamiliar street business.
Under the condition of poor business development, the growth of customers in unfamiliar streets is also facing challenges. As of September 2019, the number of monthly users of unfamiliar APP was 114 million, an increase of only 3% over the previous year, up 0.5% from the previous quarter, and the number of paying users increased by 7%. The number of monthly users has increased by less than 10% in the two quarter.
After 8 years of development, the unfamiliar street that has always been in the forefront of strangers' social life is facing a difficult problem. Behind the decline of share prices and slowing down of growth is the difficult situation of unfamiliar streets.
Live bonus see top
Mo street has always been a stranger to social interaction. But looking back at the development process of unfamiliar street, it is easy to see that its revenue has never been supported by social interaction. At the very beginning, the game business of unfamiliar street supported it for a whole day. After 2015, when the air curtain of direct seeding came into operation, the unfamiliar street realized a successful transformation.
At present, live broadcasting has become the most important source of revenue for unfamiliar street, accounting for more than 80% of total revenue. Live broadcast brings a lot of revenue and cash to unfamiliar street, but relying on a single live broadcast business also increases the risk of unfamiliar street.
Since 2018, Mo street has begun to adjust its revenue structure, but so far, the proportion of direct business in unfamiliar street is still 69%. While the company's business is heavily dependent on live broadcast, the entire live broadcasting industry is faced with the dilemma of dividends.
AI media advisory data show that China's online live subscribers are expected to exceed 500 million people, the annual growth rate has dropped from 28.4% in 2017 to 9.9% now, and is expected to decline to 4.6% in 2020. At the same time, the average daily use of short videos has reached 50.9 minutes, far exceeding the online live broadcast business.
The emergence of live users' ceilings and the strong rise of short videos are all attacking the entire live broadcasting industry, and the unfamiliar streets with live broadcast are bound to be greatly affected in the whole industry crisis.
Exploring storms
In 2018, to secure their status in the social sphere of strangers, Mo Street bought a probe into the social interaction of strangers. At that time, exploration was placed on high hopes to create a new engine for unfamiliar street development.
But the opposite is often the normal development of things, especially in the market of cloud and cloud. In April of this year, because of the unhealthy content of software dissemination, the probe was asked to get out of the rack for rectification until three months later. For 3 months, the lower shelf has brought great influence to the unfamiliar street. The loss of users has not returned to the original level.
In the case of constant content problems, probing into losses is also a major problem facing unfamiliar street.
So far, the acquisition of unfamiliar street has always been a problem of loss. The operating loss in the first quarter was 228 million 700 thousand yuan, and the net loss was 211 million 410 thousand yuan, which was further expanded compared with the same period last year. The exploration that can not bring benefits has also become a big worry of the street.
　 ZAO is a flash in the pan.
In August, a AI face changing APP called "ZAO" suddenly spread all over the net. The new software launched by unfamiliar street has a large number of users overnight, and there are countless discussions. According to ZAO official micro-blog, ZAO spent 7 million rents in August and consumed 1/3 overnight. We can see its degree of fire.
Also benefited from this software, the unfamiliar street has won a lot of attention and many difficulties. ZAO has brought a lot of hope to the unfamiliar street.
But the fire of ZAO is burning fast, and only one day, ZAO has been condemned for privacy because of its privacy. After three months, the market is still discussing the future of ZAO.
The attempt of Mo street is like a flash in the pan, and soon after it is gorgeous, it becomes silent. This is a great blow to the unfamiliar street. Tang Yan said that the ZAO project will continue to bring surprises, but in the current situation of ZAO, this surprise will not come too fast, and the joy is estimated to be even more difficult to sustain.
A rising star eyeing
On the one hand, unfamiliar street faces many problems of its own. On the other hand, the social field of strangers attracts more and more enterprises to set foot in it.
In recent years, SOUI, Me, Ji Mu and other large numbers of social products have emerged. At the beginning of this year, mobile social networking products were flashing, toilet MT and Liao Tianbao released on the same day. Many strangers' social platforms have achieved good results. SOUI and Ji can not fight against unfamiliar street, but they also have considerable weight.
The 2019 stranger social networking insight report shows that the accumulated daily retention rate has reached 71.2%, which has surpassed that of unfamiliar streets and exploration. Under the title of "the magic gun device" of the unfamiliar street, the SOUI, the main soul mate, has been praised as the "clean flow". Its installed capacity has exceeded ten million and the market has a high degree of praise.
Many small platforms are expanding in this field, including BAT and byte jumper. The Real, such as Alibaba and its Baidu receiver, has been launched online. Tencent recently launched two social networking products: "chat" and "echo".
With the entry of the Internet giants with abundant capital and numerous traffic, the situation faced by unfamiliar street is bound to be more severe.
　　 New way out for unfamiliar street: innovation and sea going
Not optimistic about the environment, not healthy state of revenue in the next, unfamiliar street began to innovate on the product and try to get rid of the sea dilemma, out of the performance and the market reaction does not match the mystery.
According to incomplete statistics, since 2018, unfamiliar street has launched seven new products, including haha, DOKI, MEET album, three video recording products, as well as him, Hertz, CUE, chatting about four social products. ZAO is also one of them. Although the final result is not ideal, it is undeniable that unfamiliar street's in-depth research in the field of AI and the exploration of new products are of great significance.
From unfamiliar street and exploration to the independent products, the street has been constantly promoting product innovation. On such a basis, unfamiliar street is constantly trying to expand the boundaries of enterprises, trying to go abroad and move towards a broader overseas market.
This year, unfamiliar street has launched a new application oriented Olaa for overseas markets, and has made great achievements in Southeast Asian market. According to App Annie data, since the launch in October, the global downloads of Olaa are mainly from India and Philippines, of which Indonesia accounts for 93.57%. Up to now, the App ranks 39 in the Indonesian market.
On the basis of the achievements, unfamiliar street's investment in overseas is still increasing. In this quarter's earnings call conference, the head of unfamiliar street said that the next quarter would be to increase overseas marketing expenses on the basis of substantially reducing domestic marketing expenditure.
In the forefront, it is bound to face greater storms, and the market will not give too much time to strangers. The current revenue structure of unfamiliar street is unreasonable and its development potential is insufficient. Although it has been profitable for 19 consecutive quarters, it can not escape the riddle of the slowdown in business growth and the sluggish share price.
Based on products and constantly developing new markets, we constantly try to explore and find new growth points before crisis challenges. This is the key to the rebirth of unfamiliar streets.