Cotton Analyst: The Adjustment Of Production And Demand Structure Has A Larger Space For Cotton Prices To Rise.

Yang Ping pointed out that, at the present stage, influenced by macroeconomic factors, the follow-up development of economic and trade relations remains the focus of attention of the market. In order to promote healthy and stable development of Cotton City, relevant policies are frequently promulgated at home, such as collecting and storing, throwing and storing imported cotton quotas. The current cotton prices are at a low level, stacking the end of the stock is still tight, the future cotton prices rise larger space, optimistic that the late Zheng cotton price will move up to 12600-15000 yuan / ton interval operation.

On the afternoon of December 10, 2019, the 2020 (second) Shanghai commodity week "2020 win win loose Shanghai cotton trend seminar" was held at Guoman Hotel at Changfeng Park.

This seminar is sponsored by an grain futures futures Limited by Share Ltd. The Shanghai Steel Union e-commerce Limited by Share Ltd (my agricultural product network) undertakes the review of the cotton market operation situation in 2019 and the analysis and Prospect of the downstream cotton yarn market, and explores the market and opportunities of cotton cotton yarn production. At the same time, it carries out an omnidirectional and multi angle in-depth interpretation of the cotton market in 2020, comprehensively analyzes the supply and demand situation and price trend of the cotton industry, and makes a professional prospect for the cotton price fluctuation space in the new year, helping the participants in the industrial chain advance the layout in 2020.

Yang Ping, a cotton analyst at Shanghai Steel Union e-commerce Limited by Share Ltd (my farm produce network), made a keynote speech entitled "cotton market outlook in 2020".

First of all, Yang Ping made a brief review of the cotton market in 2019, pointing out that cotton prices both fell inside and outside cotton in 2019, and Zheng cotton suffered four down limits. Among them, the price range of Zheng cotton kept at 11970-16225 yuan / ton, and the main price range of ICE U.S. dollars remained at 56.59-79.31 cents / pound. At the same time, the price of the cotton bump fell sharply. At that time, the Zheng cotton warehouse kept refreshing its historical peak.

Then, Yang Ping made a brief analysis of the cotton situation from the perspective of supply and demand. Looking at the world, the global cotton supply and demand situation in 2019/20 is relaxed. The output, consumption and import and export volume have increased year by year, and the consumption of inventories has decreased by 0.46%. Looking back at home, under the influence of multiple factors such as weather and policy, China's cotton planting area has decreased by 1.77% to 48 million 156 thousand mu, and in the aspect of new cotton processing, the progress of new cotton processing in 2019 exceeded that of last year. As of the beginning of December, Xinjiang cotton processed 3 million 490 thousand tons in 2019/20, an increase of 1.24% over the same period last year. Accordingly, it is estimated that cotton production in China will be reduced by about 4% to 5 million 870 thousand tons in 2019/2020.

Secondly, combined with the current global economic growth decline, manufacturing index mean lower than the ups and downs and other unfavorable economic factors, from the downstream cotton industry, cotton yarn, grey cloth end cotton consumption situation is briefly analyzed and estimated. It was pointed out that the output of grey fabrics continued to decline this year because of the export of textile and clothing. According to the statistics of my agricultural products network, in 2019 1-10, the output of grey fabric in China was only 42 billion 300 million meters, which was 4 billion 930 million meters lower than that of the previous year, and the total export volume of textile and clothing was 224 billion 815 million US dollars, down 2.64% from the same period last year. The sharp decline in textile and clothing exports means that the end consumer end will decline in yarn purchasing intention, which also leads to the serious backlog of yarn stock in the spinning enterprises, and the peak days of storage days are up to 32.8 days.

Subsequently, it was also pointed out that because of the limited overall prosperity of the cotton industry chain this year, cotton substitute Dacron staple and viscose staple fiber, which benefited from its obvious price advantage, are increasingly favored by the market. However, judging from the proportion of cotton and polyester viscose output in the past three years, the dominant position of pure cotton products is still not strong and irreplaceable.

Finally, Yang Ping made a brief prospect for the cotton market in 2020. At this stage, due to the persistence of uncertainties in international macroeconomic factors, the follow-up development of macro-economic and trade relations remains the focus of attention of the market. In order to offset the uncertainty of some markets, the state has also issued relevant policies frequently, such as collecting and storing, throwing and storing cotton quotas and so on, to maintain healthy and stable development of cotton city. Besides, it also points out that the price advantage of cotton substitutes still exists, and the development potential of the blended market is larger. At present, cotton prices are at a low level, and the stocks are tight at the end of the year. The space for the increase is relatively large. It is estimated that the price of Zheng cotton will be around 12600-15000 yuan per ton.