How Will The 15 Day Tariff Implementation Affect Cotton Prices? Will The Short Sticky Market Start In Advance?

Market brief

In December 12th, the number of New Zealand's cotton entering the market was 7000 tons, and the actual turnover was 1400 tons, with a turnover rate of 20%. The average transaction price was 13292 yuan / ton, up 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The highest price of the transaction was 13316 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; the lowest price was 13236 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. Among them, 520 tons of Xinjiang storehouse were sold, and 880 tons of inland warehouse were traded, and 4 of them were sold.

Zhengmian rushed to the high level and fell slightly. The main contract was bullish. In technical terms, the main force of zhengmian will continue to attack 13600 yuan / ton after breaking through the pressure level. Spot cotton prices continue to be stable, the new cotton sales pressure is not reduced, Xinjiang cotton stock is at a high level, the downstream with the use of buying mainly, spot trading is difficult to improve significantly, and the supply of cotton is adequate and demand remains weak. In the case of no significant change in Fundamentals, Sino US economic and trade relations related news is still the main driving factor for the recent cotton market. The implementation of the tariff increase scheduled for next week in December 15th is more important. If the two sides postpone the duty time, the domestic cotton demand and market mentality will form a good boost, then the domestic and foreign cotton prices will gain the driving force. If the tariffs are formally raised in December 15th, the weak market will continue, and the demand will not continue.

The price of acrylonitrile continues to be strong, and the prices of many factories continue to rise. The cost of business continues to rise, and the cost of business is expected to increase. With market operators as the main market, the market offer is still slightly chaotic, low prices are reluctant to sell, and spot trading is less. Acrylic fiber prices continue to stabilize, the recent price of acrylonitrile materials gradually explored, acrylic fiber cost pressure increased again, factory operators mentality slightly cautious, downstream cotton mill aftermarket orders are still not optimistic, raw materials just need to purchase, and some yarn manufacturers are entangled in whether the problem of early stocking, the overall market turnover is still generally, under the guidance of no new news, it is expected that the short-term acrylic fiber prices remain stable.

The central economic work conference was held in Beijing in from December 10th to 12th. The meeting pointed out that next year we should focus on six key tasks: first, unswervingly implement the new development concept. Two, we must resolutely fight the three major battles. The three is to ensure that people's livelihood, especially the basic livelihood of the needy, is effectively guaranteed and improved. Four, we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Five, we should focus on promoting high-quality development. The six is to deepen the reform of the economic system.

In December 9th, the 2020/2021 expert forum on China's yarn trend was held in Beijing. The conference mainly listened to experts' opinions and suggestions on the theme of Chinese yarn trend 2020/2021, and discussed the varieties of finalists. The trend of Chinese yarn is the attempt of the Chinese cotton textile industry association to extend the "Chinese fiber fashion trend" on the industrial chain. It is the first trend in the cotton textile industry. Yarn is used as the end product in textile industry. Experts from upstream and downstream industries are invited to analyze and judge the trend of the product. It has a strong guiding significance for the future development of Chinese yarn. Experts at the conference fully affirmed the work results of China's yarn trend, and published their own opinions on the theme of Chinese yarn trend 2020/2021, and put forward valuable opinions and suggestions in terms of yarn types, application fields, technical breakthroughs, product brands, testing reports and test data, and finally evaluated and recommended the declared products.

In from December 11th to 12th, Shaanxi textile and garment industry development and promotion conference was held in Danfeng County, Shangluo City, Shaanxi province. In recent years, relying on the advantages of location, land, labor and energy, Shangluo has been planning to develop textile and garment industry, focusing on cultivating textile and garment industry in industrial parks with good industrial foundation, low logistics cost and strong supporting capability in Danfeng, Shang Nan, Zhashui and Zhen An. At present, it has successfully settled in 36 textile and garment enterprises, with an output value of about 2 billion yuan. At the meeting, the Shaanxi provincial industrial and commercial hall issued a batch of "Shaanxi textile and garment industry demonstration base" for the Yale County garment industry park, such as Danfeng County; the Yulin high tech Zone, Baoji Meixian, Hanzhoung Lueyang county and Shangluo City Danfeng County and Zhashui county government made on-site promotion; the clothing Trade Association of Shaanxi Province, Heqin clothing, Sheng Dan dress and Qin Da clothing company, respectively, signed a cooperation agreement with the provincial and garment associations and relevant enterprises, such as Shanghai, Shanghai and Shanghai, with a total contract amount of 6 billion 540 million yuan. Relevant colleges and universities in Shaanxi Province, Jingdong group and Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, Liaoning and other 14 provinces and cities textile and garment industry associations, key enterprises in the province's urban garment enterprises attended the meeting.

In November 28th, the first national sewage discharge pledge loan of 9 million 300 thousand yuan was successfully landed at Shishi sub branch of Bank of China. The successful issuance of the loan is an innovative loan guarantee method pioneered by the national printing and dyeing industry. It is a successful exploration of revitalize the assets of printing and dyeing enterprises, making sewage discharge no longer just a cost burden of enterprises, but a liquid asset. It provides a new financing channel for Shishi dyeing and finishing enterprises. The feasibility study, policy formation and loan landing of pledge loan for sewage discharge not only reflect the efforts of the government of Shishi to implement the "five upgrading projects" in printing and dyeing industry, but also a successful exploration of financial support for printing and dyeing enterprises to develop innovative enterprises' financing methods.

10, the US Department of Agriculture issued the December global supply and demand report, which lowered global output, consumption and ending inventory. In the report, global output fell 180 thousand tons to 26 million 370 thousand tons, mainly in the United States, India, Pakistan and other countries; global consumption fell 270 thousand tons to 26 million 190 thousand tons, mainly for China's 220 thousand tons reduction; the end of the world inventory reduction of 110 thousand tons to 17 million 490 thousand tons, of which the countries involved are China and Brazil, the countries that are down are India and the United States. The data in the comparative report can be seen simply that the data are biased towards the good global market, but the most obvious Chinese market is the reduction of the consumption volume in China. As the number of lint processing increased in China, the number of warehouse receipts increased continuously. As of December 10th, the total volume of domestic cotton warehouse receipts has reached 26920 (including effective forecasts), with a total turnover of about 1 million 76 thousand and 800 tons, and the highest historical value in May this year is 19915.

According to the announcement of the Federation of light industry producers of Kazakhstan, in order to upgrade the technical level of the textile industry, Kazakhstan formally formed the Federation of Kazakh textile industry production enterprises, and about 100 HB textile enterprises joined the organization. The Federation will set up a cooperation platform for enterprises and research institutes in Kazakhstan and partner countries to enhance the proportion of textile industry in Ha GDP. It is reported that there are altogether 1016 enterprises in Guangdong and haha. Among them, there are 12 large enterprises, 26 medium-sized enterprises and 978 small enterprises.

Recently, the Federation of Italy industries said that the garment industry in Prato province has seen a decline in production in the first two quarters of 2019, and more than 5000 of the clothing companies in the province are Chinese companies. The Italy Federation of industry held a press conference on the annual industrial report held in 2019. The largest garment manufacturing province in Italy, the garment industry in Prato Province, has seen its first decline in production in the past two years in the first quarter of 2019. Compared with the previous year, production decreased by 4.6%-5%. According to the Federation of Italy industries, more than 5000 of the clothing companies in Prato province are Chinese companies, and Italy apparel companies account for only a small part. Over the past 20 years, the garment industry in this area has developed rapidly, and production has been growing steadily and steadily. The number of people engaged in garment industry (more than 20000 people) has exceeded the number of people engaged in textile industry (about 19000 people) and created many jobs. In 2019, the decline in production in the region made Italy Federation of industry surprised and worried. They said that this means that the production of garments in other parts of Italy is also not optimistic.

Market curve