The Sino US Trade Negotiations Are Delicate And Sensitive. The 2019 China Cotton (Zhangjiagang) Forum Explores The Trend Of Next Year.

Since the beginning of this year, China's cotton industry has also experienced ups and downs as the situation of international trade has been unpredictable. Especially after May, the cotton market has been in a depressed state for a long time. In the face of the loose global supply of cotton, the reduction of consumption expectations, the dual pressure of product inventory and raw material capital in cotton and textile industry, how will the cotton market develop next year? The Sino US trade negotiations are delicate. Sensitive Under the circumstances, how to break through the predicament of the cotton industry has caused widespread enterprises in the cotton industry chain. follow 。

In December 12, 2019, Zhangjiagang Cotton Association, Zhangjiagang bonded area textile raw material market, new lake futures joint Huafang group, poly cotton net, Zhengzhou commodity exchange, Shanghai textile material company and other units jointly organized. "2019 China Cotton (Zhangjiagang) forum" Annual meeting " It was held in Zhangjiagang. More than 400 people from various Futures Company, cotton trading companies, trading markets and textile enterprises discussed the development trend and risk control of the new cotton market in the coming year.

Sino US trade friction affects industry confidence

Xie Ming, honorary president of Jiangsu Textile Industry Association In his speech, Jiangsu is the most concentrated textile Province in the country, and also a major province of cotton spinning, which accounts for more than 10% of the country's spinning. This year, the industry is facing great downward pressure. Many enterprises reflect that the operation is very difficult and the benefits are not good. Jiangsu's main business income and exports declined in 1-9 months. The economic downturn is due to trade friction between China and the United States. Although the amount of exports to the US is not large, it has great influence on industrial confidence and customer confidence. In the future, the prospect of Sino US trade negotiations should not be too optimistic, because fundamentally speaking, containment of China's development is the national policy of the United States, and from the ideological point of view, the United States also regards China as its main rival. As a major textile Province, Jiangsu's ecological environment policy has been tightening, and the pressure on textile industry has been increasing. These factors affect the development of the industry, and then affect the cotton trend. She mentioned in particular that most countries in the world are open to cotton. China also continues to manage the planned economy. The cotton policy has great impact on the industry. Therefore, only in the future can the cotton industry develop healthily.

Yang Xidong, general manager of new lake Futures Co. Ltd. From the perspective of futures, the price change of cotton is discussed. He said that cotton prices fluctuated greatly over the past two years, far exceeding market expectations. Cotton prices fell this year and upstream orders were reduced. Many trade enterprises were in the most difficult position in history. Trade friction between China and the United States has become a major factor affecting demand, so we must pay attention to price management.

Xiao Jingyao, vice president of Zhangjiagang Cotton Association and vice president of Huafang group It is said that more than 20 countries in the world produce cotton, because cotton brings people together. Human clothing, food and clothing, clothing is the first, cotton will bring warmth to mankind. Cotton is at a low level now. With the conversion of the national cotton reserve policy, the future cotton outlook can be expected.

Ji Guangpo, chief expert of Shanghai international cotton trading center The cotton market in 2019 - 2020 was analyzed and forecasted. He believes that the recent weak cotton futures consolidation, the medium term will shock upward. The upward reason is that the global supply and demand are basically balanced, and domestic demand is more prominent than supply. Downstream sales have not deteriorated. With the peak season of spring, consumption will change fundamentally. The downstream sales will dominate the market trend. In addition, from the inventory shift to the first year of storage, there was a lot of signal on the policy side.

Editor in chief of China Cotton Information Network Using data to analyze cotton and textile industry chain. In her view, cotton textile industry is changing from a longitudinal perspective. The competitiveness of regular products of cotton products decreased significantly, and the products with higher added value had better development trend. In the export market, the traditional market share has gradually decreased, but the demand for rigid share is still in the same direction. The market for developed economies and ASEAN exports to the underdeveloped economies and Southeast Asia and Central Asia is the same, but the export structure is changing. In the domestic demand market, the consumption trend and consumption structure are changing, and the direction of production is also changing. From a horizontal perspective, the production and marketing situation is relatively stable, and the result of Sino US trade negotiations has more impact on industry confidence than cotton consumption.

With the intensification of Sino US trade friction, India cotton is attracting people. follow 。 Sandip pukhral Jain, President of DP Cotton Corp, India The situation of cotton in India is introduced. He said that the advantage of India's cotton lies in its variety; the quality of its fiber is good and its mercerization is good, which can enhance the value of textiles; India's logistics develops very fast, and it only takes a week to deliver goods from signing contracts to shipping. International cotton traders like to run India cotton because they have abundant profit opportunities. But India cotton also has deficiencies, which is reflected in the low quality of packaging materials, which will lead to damage in transportation. India cotton uses hand collection to pollute cotton. Most of India cotton is short term contracts, and lacks long-term contracts. Because of India government When domestic textile preferential policies expire, more India cotton will enter the international market. He also introduced the cotton minimum protection price policy to India cotton export's influence. He said that the problem of cotton supply in India lies in the low yield per unit area, and only by increasing the yield per unit area can we provide more cotton. India has great potential for cotton in the future.

The quality of cotton in the United States and India has declined.

Zhangjiagang's cotton imports account for about 9% of the country's imports, accounting for 37% of Jiangsu's imports, ranking first in Jiangsu. Ding Xiaofeng, deputy director of the customs and Excise Department of Jin Gang, introduced the situation of importing cotton in Zhangjiagang. He said that in 2019, the customs inspected 492 batches of imported cotton, 722 thousand packages, 149 thousand tons, and the total value was $280 million. Compared with the same period last year, the volume, weight and value of goods increased by 14.5%, 40% and 33.3% respectively. The main reasons for the increase in cotton imports are: first, with the anticipation of the size of China's cotton reserves and the decline in domestic cotton production, there is a contradiction between supply and demand of domestic cotton, and the increase in cotton imports in the first half of the year is due to the expectation of the cotton industry at the beginning of the year. trade war The import volume of imported cotton decreased significantly in the second half of the year; two, with the deepening of the domestic textile industry's supply side and the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations, the import trade opportunities of cotton increased correspondingly; three, the "no three silk" and the long staple cotton varieties of spinning and matching cotton and product structure demand still had a great dependence on imported cotton, and also prompted domestic enterprises to import cotton that was in line with their spinning requirements.

The overall quality of imported cotton in Zhangjiagang decreased in 2019. The quality of imported cotton in India, which accounts for 40% of the total imports, is relatively poor. The quality of imported cotton in Zhangjiagang has been determined from the data. Secondly, the quality of African cotton arrival in Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon and Togo has seen a great fluctuation. The average rate of non conformity of cotton grade and length index has increased, especially the inconsistency rate of the length index has increased substantially compared with previous years. The average inconsistency rate of cotton grade, length, Ma Kelong value and strong index of cotton cotton which has been known for its excellent quality and good consistency has increased year after year.

In 2019, 61 batches of US cotton were imported, 22 thousand tons, and 44 million 585 thousand US dollars. Compared with the same period last year, the batches, weight and value of products were reduced by 66.7%, 31.3% and 27.1% respectively.

According to the test, the average rate of non conformity was 37.3%, which was higher than the overall average rate of non conformity, and increased by 15.9% compared with the same period last year (21.4%). The rate of demotion ranged from 1/2 to 3. There were 1 batches of cotton grades with a grade reduction rate of 2 and more than 20% of the total package.

Finally, a round table forum was held. Xiao Jingyao, vice president of Zhangjiagang cotton trade association, Li Qiang, director and chief analyst of Huafang Futures Research Institute, Li Qiang, chief economist of Shanghai international cotton trading center, Ji Guang Po, general manager of China Jiaji Cotton Corp, Huang Hong Yu, President of Tongzhou cotton group of Shanghai, CEO Gong Wenlong of Shanghai cotton alliance, Dan Hua general manager of Xinjiang Kashi water control cotton industry Co., Ltd. Their views on the present and future of the cotton market are published.