The Good Opportunity To Escort The SSE Back To The 3000 Fundamentals Is Still Cautious.

The three major indexes of A share have been rising for a long time.

In December 17th, the Shanghai composite index broke through the 3000 point mark of the eleventh time in the "repeated" market of the whole year. Securities, banks, real estate and other sectors rose at a time.

In the industry view, the easing of Sino US trade frictions and the constant release of steady growth signals may be the reasons for the recent rise of A shares, and the A shares once again exceeded 3000 points, which is also related to the uptrend of the technology stocks represented by the gem.

In the long and fierce competition, the turnover of the three indexes reached 746 billion 300 million yuan, the highest since the 68 trading day after September 5th. But in the face of this integer entry, there are also some buyers' institutions which are cautious about the underlying fundamentals.

Multiple good signal concentration

A shares rose for two consecutive days or related to a number of positive benefits. Last weekend, China and the United States just reached agreement on the first phase of the economic and trade agreement, which is seen as a sign of great confidence in investors.

"This brings confidence to the corresponding challenges and investment and investors, which will increase investment and consumption, and promote economic stability or further improvement." Shao Yu, chief economist of Orient Securities, told reporters in an interview with the economic news reporter twenty-first Century.

At the same time, the "six stability" emphasized by the central economic work conference in 2020 stressed the expectation of the market for steady growth policy.

"From the signal transmitted by the central economic work conference, the consensus on stabilizing the economic fundamentals has not changed. Under the pressure of economic growth pressure, we will not rule out that more monetary instruments and positive fiscal policies will be put in." A strategy analyst of a listed broker in Beijing said, "steady growth will form a healthy expectation from the two levels of capital and fundamentals."

In fact, on the day of the rise of brokerage stocks, many market participants believe that the market is related to the expected warming of monetary policy.

"When monetary policy is loosened and expected, brokerage stocks are given priority, and the reduction in the end of 2014 directly led to the stock market and the late bull market." The strategy analyst said.

It is worth mentioning that for some 3000 breakthroughs, some agencies have already predicted. For example, state securities has said that the A shares will probably break through the 3000 point before the end of the year.

"From the operational characteristics of the historical A shares in December, the undervalued blue chip style often runs out of excess return. In December, the policy environment for economic stability was warmer, and the probability of conversion at the end of the year was very high. State Securities said, "the driving force of the market has gradually shifted from profit to valuation, and considering the allocation of profits - valuation of cost-effective. At present, financial real estate has the value of allocation. "

A seller's organization further believes that the possibility of a steady upward trend is still greater.

"After last Friday and this Monday's continuous volume rise, the short-term market breakthrough breakthrough pattern has been basically established. If there is no major adverse factors beyond expectations, the Shanghai stock index will continue to rise steadily." Zhongyuan Securities said, "from the characteristics of these two trading days, the two big plates represented by brokerage trust and software technology are expected to become the leading sector of the current rally. We suggest that investors should increase their positions and actively grasp the good opportunities for the current market.

The bull market of gem

In the view of market participants, behind the upward trend of the Shanghai stock index, there is a groundbreaking rise in technology stocks represented by the gem.

As a matter of fact, gem has recently gained a larger increase, and there are 8 positive lines in the 10 trading days in the past two weeks. The total growth rate of gem is 7.53%, which is 2.76 percentage points higher than that of Shanghai stock index. At the end of the year, the strong growth of the gem is related to the expected growth of gem in 2020.

"Similar to the high valuation effect at the beginning of the reform of the science and technology board, the expectation that the gem promotes the registration reform is likely to further bring the effect of valuation uplifting." A broker who is close to the regulatory level said, "at present, the reform of the science and technology board has achieved initial success, and the reform window of the gem will probably come."

There is also a view that the rise of gem is driven by capital.

"In the background of no obvious improvement in the fundamentals and the decline in earnings growth of listed companies, there is no need to reverse the increase in capital market. Obviously, we need to look for the target, but the valuation of the science and technology board is relatively high, and the relative allocation of consumer stocks is not low, so at this time, some of the technology stocks represented by the GEM board have become potential targets." An investment manager of a private equity firm in Shanghai said, "configuring technology stocks is actually betting on new economic opportunities under structural transformation."

Reporter statistics found that, including Shen Wan Hongyuan, Guoxin, investment, southwest, including a number of brokerages expressed optimism on the 2020 technology stocks market.

"Market expectations themselves have the effect of early realization, because funds will not intervene until next year when technology stocks perform well." The investment manager said, "so this year's rally of technology stocks is more obvious, and it has indirectly pushed up the gem index."

But in its view, although A shares belong to low allocation in the field of asset allocation, some small and medium capitalization technology stocks in some fields already have anticipated "overdraft" in advance.

"A shares still have room for valuation as a whole, but under the impetus of this round of growth enterprise market, some small cap Market technology stocks do exist in anticipation of early overdraft, which need to be careful." The investment manager said.

Haitong Securities believes that the market may be volatile after breaking through 3000 points, but the medium-term trend remains optimistic.

But there are buyers who believe that we still need to be vigilant against the risk that the fundamentals are not yet at the bottom.

"We are still holding relatively light positions, and focus on interest rate debt and high-grade credit debt, because at present, the fundamentals are not completely bottomed out, unless there are opportunities for some promising industries to fall." The investment manager said, "but at the moment, the valuation of some stocks has gone up again, so we should remain vigilant on the whole."