Talking About The New Opportunities Of Capital Market Opening: 8 Public Private Investment Big Coffee Outlook 2020 Global Capital Market Draught

In December 5th, it was hosted by the headquarters of the central broadcasting and TV station, the big bay area headquarters of Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau, and the southern financial and all media group. In twenty-first Century, the "2019 China Southern Capital International Forum on innovation and opening up", hosted by the economic report, was held in Guangzhou.

In the afternoon, the "new opportunities for opening up the capital market" parallel sub forum, Xie Xiaoli, assistant director of investment management at Bisheng, director of investment management of Hua Tuo capital, Zhou Luoyan, director of FOF Investment Department of Guotai fund management Co., Ltd., Zhou Luoyan, director general of Investment Department of international fund business department, Huang Huiyu, deputy director of FOF Investment Department of ICBC, Huang Huiyu, assistant director of multi asset allocation of investment fund international, Wang Chao, director of fixed income investment director of Wells Fargo, Huang Tao, President of Binhai golden control investment research institute, participated in the round table dialogue session entitled "global capital market draught and large class asset allocation strategy", and discussed and shared on topics such as changes in capital market opening up, investment experience in 2020, investment experience in 2020 and asset allocation strategy in 2020. In

Foreign investment inject new vitality

Since the beginning of this year, opening up the capital market has become a key topic. Facing the influx of foreign capital, the domestic capital market is showing different trends.

"The proportion of overseas funds participating in China's investment is higher and higher. On the one hand, from a macro perspective, the world is a state of asset shortage. China's A share position is rather cheap. Foreign capital thinks that we are very attractive from global pricing. Second, before foreign investors regard us as the allocation of new assets, China is now the second largest economy in the world, and it must invest in the Chinese market in the light of the principle that eggs cannot be put in a basket. Then, with the increase of the financial opening market, more foreign capital will enter China in the future, which will further promote the process of institutionalization. Xie Xiaoli said.

From the perspective of FOF investment, Zhou Luoyan pointed out that "with the intensification of market opening, more and more overseas funds are focused, and more and more funds are incorporated into our FOF fund. A large part of FOF comes from the third pillar of pension, taking into account the pension, almost all of the assets invested in domestic market bonds, but it will bring greater volatility. In fact, in the FOF portfolio, the inclusion of global assets is also a very important driving force for the completion of the third target of the third pillar.

From a business perspective, we deeply feel that China's capital market and the opening up of the economy are very strong. Under the background of more and more obvious institutionalization, the volatility of the entire A shares has dropped significantly. Second, the fact that there is a very significant difference between the Chinese market and overseas is that there will be a long-term momentum effect in the international mature market. Companies that perform well in the past one to three months will also perform well in the future, whereas the A share market has a short-term reversal effect. But in the past year, the A share market has also changed significantly. Third, the A share market has become more and more popular in the market. First, from the long historical performance of A shares in the past, A shares are highly volatile markets. This year, the proportion of foreign investment is increasing. This year, we can see that there are many core assets. The quarterly figures are slightly lower than expected, but the performance of share prices is relatively mild. The A share market has undergone very good changes in the proportion of foreign investment participation. This trend continues, and the A share market will go out of the bull market. " Wang Chao thinks.

Summing up experience and looking forward to 2020

In fact, there have been many changes in the capital market in the past year, and for those who invest in big coffee, these changes have also gained more experience. At the same time, there are different perspectives for the asset allocation strategy in 2020.

"This year's more profound experience is that from the perspective of asset allocation, the more assets the better, the lower the correlation between assets, which is helpful to the improvement of asset returns. This year, as a whole, both the United States and Europe show the trend of declining macroeconomic volatility. Under such a situation, there are more bottom-up opportunities. This year, we choose this missing piece from bottom to top. Looking ahead next year, the types of asset allocation can also be gradually enriched in the future. Compared to equity, the assets we can deploy at present are very limited. Second, in mature developed markets, inflation linked bonds and domestic assets can not be matched. We hope to have such assets in the future. Huang Huiyu said.

From the perspective of overseas asset allocation, Liu Furong talked about the allocation opportunities for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks. "Regarding US assets, we believe that the downward pressure on the US economy continues and the political risk in the United States is getting higher and higher. What we differ from the market is that we believe that the US Federal Reserve has limited interest rate cuts, because the Federal Reserve always maintains political neutrality in the election year of the Federal Reserve, so the factors that are favorable for US assets may have already been manifested. Therefore, we believe that the US growth stocks, high momentum stocks and high volatility stocks should be appropriately reduced, and the allocation of value stocks should be increased. In terms of stocks, we believe that we should pay close attention to the industries that Hong Kong stocks benefit from the mainland's policy dividends and look for high growth and high-quality leading enterprises, including technology, medical and consumer industries, to avoid mature enterprises with limited growth space and limited imagination.

In view of how to grasp the deterministic opportunities of A shares, Huang Tao said, "we must pay attention to the foundation of enterprises. We should pay attention to the free cash flow and the core business barriers of enterprises. In addition, the valuation level of enterprises allows a little more expensive, such as Moutai, but behind it is the high certainty of business performance, so it can accommodate a higher valuation."

In its view, "most of the profits are actually made by the bear market. The bull market is actually an exit opportunity, instead of being invested." All products have pricing basis. For example, most of the pricing of investment is based on the basic pricing logic of the yield of the 10 year treasury bond. If the yield of the Treasury bond is 5%, the yield of the stock can at least not be lower than that of the national debt. If the national debt is 5% of the income, it means that 20 years can be returned to the original. It can be considered that the price earnings ratio of the national debt is 20 times. If the stock is the highest, the interest rate of the national debt can not exceed 20 times. However, the A share is basically not less than 20 times. In contrast, if the interest rate of the 10 year bonds is reduced to 3.3%, then the valuation of the A shares can be 30 times. If you focus on the industry, generally choose some industries or companies that are not cost linked, and then select specific enterprises. From the perspective of odds, it is easier to select some good targets.

As a wholly foreign-owned private equity firm, Xie Xiaoli analyzed the domestic A share market from the perspective of foreign countries. "2020 is a year of coexistence of risks and opportunities. China's A share market is still optimistic about consumption and technology in 2020. Despite frequent references, many core stock valuations have been very high and hesitate to buy or not. If it depends on its growth of 3 to 5 years, the first is whether it is a good industry. Second, is it a good business from the perspective of entrepreneurs? We have seen whether the logic of the future growth of the company has changed. For example, the Growth Logic of 3 to 5 years has not changed. We think there is no big problem, because valuation is temporary. Third, the barriers to trade are not high. If the barriers to industry are high, they prove to be a good company.

In addition, there is another big change in the capital market this year, that is, the launch of the science and technology board.

In view of the Chuang Chuang plate, Zhu Yi Yi pointed out, "we knew from the beginning that the breakout of the company was definitely good. The better the breakage, the better the breakage would be, and the market would be automatically adjusted, so we were not afraid. The registration system of Ke Chuang plate is a step of stock reform in our market. With the stock reform, many reforms can be pushed forward. Why A shares can not be pushed forward is due to delisting, so we are going to carry out incremental reform, and the stock is coming slowly, and we will gradually push the stock reform through incremental reform. Next year, we can configure some index funds of the science and innovation board, and the new three board policy recently launched. The new three board is also a good asset for our next step.

Finally, Wu Lei pointed out from the analysis of the fixed income field, "we suggest that we pay attention to the convertible bond market. On the one hand, the convertible bond has the stock character, on the one hand it has the debt property. The previous convertible bond market is relatively small. The increment and stock of the convertible bond market is close to 200 billion this year, and it is already a certain volume market. This market has a wide variety of issuers. There are very good convertible bonds issued by listed companies. There are also qualified convertible bonds issued by listed companies. It is recommended that you pay attention to this market.

In view of the convertible bond market, Huang Taoyi pointed out: "this is an opportunity, through the convertible bond investment but does not make the mistake match, directly makes a long cycle, for example 5-6 years' fund, under this situation, actually very easy to achieve the guaranteed capital, obtains the excess income under the premise of capital preservation."