Zheng Cotton Market Trend Into The Bottom Stage

Domestic cotton output is relatively clear. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total output of cotton in 2019 was 5 million 889 thousand tons, down by 213 thousand tons compared with 2018, down 3.5%. The area is divided into 110 thousand parts: the Xinjiang area is about 100 thousand tons, and the inland area is Shandong and Anhui. According to statistics of corps Statistics Bureau, this year's corps cotton area is 13 million 191 thousand and 700 mu, an increase of 3%. The total output is 2 million 120 thousand tons, an increase of 3.6%. Area production is at a record high. The textile industry grew in November. In November, the added value of above scale industries increased by 6.2% in real terms, up 1.5 percentage points from October. Sub sectors, the textile industry grew by 2.5%, the overall growth rate of industrial development has improved, which is conducive to ease the pressure on product inventory. According to the data released by the customs, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products in November decreased by 3.49% compared with last year, a decrease of 1.99% over the previous month, and the above export results were not optimistic.

Cotton industry inventories decreased year by year. In November, the cotton industry inventory of cotton textile enterprises increased by 13 thousand and 600 to 723 thousand and 200 tons compared with last month, down 143 thousand and 300 tons compared with the same period last year, and is at the lowest level in nearly three years. Textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing cotton textile raw materials, reducing raw material inventory can effectively avoid the risk of falling prices; the yarn and billet storage ring is flat or slightly higher than last month, compared with last month, the yarn stock increased by 40 thousand and 200 tons, and the grey fabric inventory reduced by 7 thousand and 100 tons. In November, the overall turnover increased slightly from last month, but the enterprises still faced the pressure of product inventory unsalable. Over the same period, China's cotton textile industry purchasing managers index (PMI) was 53.12%, an increase of 1.16% in the ring ratio, a slight rise in production and start-up rates, and the decline in new orders had a negative impact on cotton prices.

Cotton business inventories are high. In November 2019, the total inventory of cotton business in China was about 4 million 496 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 1 million 272 thousand and 400 tons from the previous month, an increase of 5.48% over the same period last year. Cotton stocks in Xinjiang were 3 million 667 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 1 million 406 thousand and 100 tons over the previous month, higher than the same period last year. As of December 18th, the number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts (including effective forecasts) was 29758, and the turnover was 1 million 279 thousand and 600 tons, which has reached a record high of 47.75%. The number of shares in the CF2001+CF2005 double contract position is about 47.75%.

Zheng cotton futures are weak. Zheng cotton index has dropped sharply, and its position has maintained growth. At present, there are obvious differences between the two views of Zheng cotton futures contract. In December 18th, the turnover rate of cotton reserves was 2.86%, only in the Xinjiang area. Recently, domestic import cotton stocks have declined, and some enterprises are speeding up customs clearance quotas by the end of the year. It is suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the situation of cotton rotation.