At The End Of The PTA Market, The Polyester Market Ushered In A "Wave Market".

In December 24th, the PTA futures contract of the Zhengzhou commercial center ended in a bid. The main 2005 contract closed at 4966 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 70 yuan / ton, or 1.43%.

In the face of the futures market, the PTA spot market, which was originally calm, also rose sharply in the afternoon, and the price of the mainstream offer rose to around 4790-4870 yuan / ton.

Ethylene glycol, which is the raw material of polyester, has experienced a "Crazy" market for a period of time. After four consecutive trading days, it went down and went back to the rally after 24 noon. On the same day, the MEG futures of the big business center were close to the end, and the main 2005 contract ended at 4618 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 21 yuan / ton, or 0.46%.

On the afternoon of the same day, the price of glycol was also running on the same side. The internal offer was near 5190 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity of the outside market rose slightly, and the shipping quotation was slightly higher than the 585 yuan / ton.

In the original image of a seemingly empty, polyester raw materials market suddenly ushered in Polly, what is the reason? Market speculation? PX out of stock drive? Downstream demand upgrading?

But I dare not go too far to explore it, which can be analyzed from the fundamentals. What is the situation of polyester Market in recent days?

First of all, from the supply side of polyester raw materials, the market average operating rate of PTA is concentrated at 85.5%, which is 0.9% lower than that of 13 days, and the real-time operating rate is 87.3%, and the effective rate of real-time operation is 93.7%. And the market maintenance plan is also in progress, such as Yisheng a set of 2 million 250 thousand tons of PTA device plan at the end of December car maintenance, is expected to maintain until the middle of January; Yisheng Ningbo 4#220 million tons PTA device plans to stop and repair at the end of January, is expected to maintain until mid February.

In terms of ethylene glycol, although the port has gradually been released, the main port stock of ethylene glycol has increased in recent days, but the stock is still at a low level. It is understood that as of 23 days, the East China main port ethylene glycol inventory of about 355 thousand tons, of which 168 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, 70 thousand tons in Ningbo, 27 thousand tons in Shanghai and Changshu, 47 thousand tons in Taicang.

Secondly, nature comes from the support of downstream demand. Polyester filament is the core of polyester raw materials, and the market of polyester filament has been quite strong recently. Not only the prices of polyester filament products have been steadily increasing, but have been rising to varying degrees. In addition, it is noteworthy that polyester mainstream inventory reduction and drop.

According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 9-18 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 3-7 days, FDY stocks are close to 7-12 days, while DTY stocks are about 14-19 days.

Key points, 24 days, stimulated by market interest, the market trading atmosphere of polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has been significantly improved in the afternoon. According to statistics, the production and sales of polyester mainstream plants climbed to 120%-140%, and some of the higher production and sales were 200% or even 300%.

Finally, it is inevitable that the situation comes from the weaving end. As the end of twelve is approaching the stock nodes at the end of the month, plus the demand for hoarding of some weaving factories before the Spring Festival, there are more or less certain needs. In terms of weaving, although entering the market in December, the overall turnover of the raw materials market is different, the market orders for goods are coming to an end, but the spring and summer clothing fabrics are partial volume, and some traders have stockpiling operations.

For example, the recent imitation silk series performs better than other products, and the downstream purchases are mostly used for spring and summer orders next year, including chiffon, DASMA, and crepe de crepe. After finishing, such as bronzing, printing, crumming and so on, the cloth presents a different style, and downstream purchases are mostly used for making spring and summer ladies fashion. In addition, the performance of imitation memory orders is better than that in the early stage, and orders are issued in both domestic and foreign trade. It is understood that in recent days, the inventory of textile market has dropped somewhat, and there are about 37 days in Shengze.

In any case, at the end of the year, the market ushered in a wave of "market", which has brought more and more impetus to the upstream and downstream markets, and has also increased confidence in the market next year.