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    Winter Is Short. Cotton Prices Will Return To 16000 Yuan / Ton Next Year.

    2019/12/25 11:19:00 0

    Cotton Price

    Overall, the 2020 cotton market will show a fluctuating pattern. A preliminary agreement on Sino US trade is a strategic turning point, laying a long-term foundation for the recovery and growth of cotton consumption. Despite the short term pressure of new cotton listing, inventories are in a state of decline after a long period of consumption and are in the middle and low level. Therefore, the cold winter gradually passed, and spring will come.

    The trend of Zheng cotton in 2020 may be interpreted in three stages. As follows: in the first stage, there is a small rebound in spring, high point or early March. In the second stage, the pressure of deliveries and dumping is repeated, and Zheng cotton forms the two bottom, and the low point appears in late May. The third stage, we speculate: in the middle of 2020, Zheng cotton market is expected to enter the upward stage of oscillation, the time will continue to 8 and September, the height is 16000 yuan / ton up and down.



    Market Review

    Taking Zheng cotton index as an example, the trend of last year is mainly divided into two segments:

    The low point of the first paragraph was in December 25, 2018 (14620 yuan / ton), and then the market entered the rebound of winter stocking and spring peak season, and reached a high point (16160 yuan / ton) in April 15th, or 1540 yuan / ton (+10.5%).

    The second paragraph is under the pressure of seasonal off-season and warehouse receipts, the market continues to decline, and superimposed Sino US negotiations into the confrontation period, the market accelerated downhill, followed by a large fluctuation in the form of bottom finding, its low point appeared in September 30th (12045 yuan / ton), a decrease of 4115 yuan / ton (-25.4%).

    However, since October 2019, the Zheng cotton market seems to have taken on a new starting point.

    From a time perspective, Zheng cotton entered the 2019/2020 year, and the new cotton harvest pressure has caused the initial heavy blow to the market. With the dawn of the Sino US trade negotiations, the market takes the new cotton procurement cost as the bottom line, showing a trend of oscillating recovery. As spot traders fear to reproduce the situation of the previous year (more than half of them have no guarantee), hedging increases rapidly as the market moves upward. So far, registered warehouse receipts have accumulated to more than 800 thousand tons.

    It can be predicted that in the current stage, Zheng cotton market will fluctuate around an interval. The lower part of this interval is the purchase cost and the storage price. The upper edge is the hedging area of ginning plants and traders. Take the 2005 contract as an example, the fluctuation interval is estimated to be between 12800 and 13700 yuan. Obviously, this consolidation state is phased, breaking down with the slow recovery of demand and the implementation of Sino US negotiation results.

    Next, we will make a deduction for the evolution of Zheng cotton market in 2020.

    Important events affecting cotton market in time

    1. Sino US trade negotiations have achieved initial results: tariff is phased out.

    In December 13th, China and the United States announced that they have reached agreement on the first stage economic and trade agreement on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect. The abolition of tariffs will be a phased and gradual process. The tariff increases or decreases will play a positive role in the restoration of Chinese exports (Textiles and garments). At this point, Sino US economic and trade relations have come to a strategic turn. However, the future process will still be tortuous.

    As for Zheng cotton, the main driving factor in the past year's decline is the shrinking demand. The main reason for this situation is the deterioration of Sino US trade relations. It has been estimated that the stagnation of US textile and garment exports has reduced China's cotton consumption by about 800 thousand tons a year. It can be envisaged that with the decline in tariffs, China's cotton consumption is expected to gradually recover. Therefore, for the cotton market, it will be a long-term strategic good.

    In terms of US cotton, China is expected to gradually restore and increase the import of US cotton. In view of the low level of stock in China, China will import more than 500 thousand tons of extra cotton to replenish its stock. It is clear that the initial recovery of Sino US economic and trade relations will help to restore the balance sheet of the US cotton market and shift to the multi market market as a result of export growth. In this regard, we speculate: the annual range of US cotton 2020 - 65 - 95 cents. According to the rule, the end of the year is the peak season for cotton consumption, and the agreement between China and the United States is expected to produce a wave of seasonal rise. This will also trigger a gradual rise in the market of Zheng cotton because of the upside down trend of domestic and foreign cotton prices.

    The "round in and out out" strategy and inventory evolution of 2. State Reserve bureaus

    At present, the bottom line factors that affect the short-term supply of the market are: the State Reserve Bureau plans to acquire 500 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton. The plan starts in December 2nd and ends in March 31st next year. The total volume of 500 thousand tons is up to 7000 tons per day. If the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is worse than 800 yuan / ton for 3 consecutive working days, the business will be suspended.

    Obviously, the strategy of "going round" will greatly improve the reality of supply easing, especially in the new cotton market. At the same time, the price of the National Reserve will also become the market bottom price, and will form a strong support for the cotton price. In addition, the lowest purchasing cost of new cotton is up to 12200 yuan / ton this year, and it has moved up to 13300 yuan / ton in the later stage.

    In December 9th, China Cotton store planned to purchase 7000 tons of Xinjiang cotton, the average price was 13299 yuan / ton, up 11 yuan / ton, and the turnover rate was 35.4%. As of December 9th, the total planned purchase of 42 thousand tons, the highest price of 13319 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 12879 yuan / ton. Judging from the situation of the transaction, first of all, there is a drag on the disk, but now it appears to be stabilized, becoming a supporting factor, but the transaction rate is dropping sharply.

    At present, the remaining stocks of national reserve dropped to 1 million 700 thousand tons. The decrease of 1 million tons was due to the "round out" plan from May 5th to September 30th. According to the requirements of the central reserve, 3 million tons is a relatively safe reserve level, and it is also easy to regulate the market. Therefore, the total annual turnover is 1 million tons. Inadequate or imported cotton instead. This will be a potential plus factor.

    3. other problems in time: massive delivery and sowing growth.

    Panic in the previous year's fall, many cotton processing enterprises and traders failed to guarantee timely and scarred. Now, when the new cotton market is in season, the mentality of industry operators is generally cautious, so long as there is a suitable price, it will be hedging on the futures market so as to lock in the profit margin of the warehouse receipts or protect the stock. This has become the main means for the industry to make use of futures for sale.

    Because of this, the recent registered warehouse receipts continued to increase substantially. As of December 12th, Zheng cotton registered 21987 warehouse receipts, equivalent to 879 thousand tons of cotton (compared to last week +4.6 million tons). Combined with the procurement cost, it is estimated that Zheng cotton 2005 contracts will incur a large number of hedging packages in the range of 13200 to 13700 yuan / ton. It is predicted that the new cotton warehouse receipt will reach 2 million tons this year.

    In the face of growing warehouse receipts, if there is no good buying, the market will have to face severe tests when it is delivered. There are two time nodes: 1.2020 mid March. At that time, all the cotton warehouse receipt will be deleted in this month. Now there are about 260 thousand tons of old cotton warehouse receipt. It can be said that the pressure is not big. 2.2020 mid May. This will usher in the second shock wave. Last year, the Zheng cotton market plummeted during this period and superimposed the rupture of Sino US negotiations. It can be imagined: next year's delivery will reach more than one million tons. We should have good consumption and arbitrage to buy.

    Talk about the sowing and growth of cotton again. In 4 and May, cotton will enter the seeding stage and early growth stage in the northern hemisphere. At that time, the planting area and climatic conditions will be a key factor in the market. The area determines the total output, and the weather determines the yield per unit, which will change the expectation of future supply.

    There are two time points that must be highly regarded: in general, USDA will announce the initial sown area in March 30th, and the final area data will be given in June 30th. China's cotton related agencies will also give the survey data in advance.

    Interpretation of USDA report data in December

    1. China: the gap between production and demand persists.


    In recent years, the strategic task of China's cotton industry is to "go out of stock." According to the historical data of USDA, the basic inventory of cotton in China reached 13 million 670 thousand tons (2014/2015 / 181%). Until now, China's final inventory will fall to 7 million 240 thousand tons in 2019/2020, which is 86%. On the other hand, the stock of state reserves is at the top of 10 million tons. After several years of auction, it will drop to 1 million 700 thousand tons by the end of September this year. It can be seen that the task of "going to stock" is not only completed but also beyond expectations. Because of this, the State Reserve Bureau is replenishing its stock by acquiring 500 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton. Soon, it is likely to announce the purchase of 500 thousand tons of cotton.



    The reason for this is that there is always a gap between domestic production and demand. According to table 1, the average shortfall in the last three years is 2 million 650 thousand tons. On the one hand, the domestic sowing area has not changed much, resulting in no change in output. At the same time, consumption demand has been decreasing slightly in recent three years, due to trade friction between China and the United States. Nevertheless, the demand is far greater than the output, resulting in a larger gap between production and demand.

    Now, China and the United States have basically reached an agreement, which will promote the gradual recovery of China's exports to the United States (Textiles and clothing). It can be envisaged that consumption in 2019/2020 and next year will rise. At that time, the gap will expand and the end inventory will keep falling. Quantitative change will eventually lead to qualitative change, and inventory will drop to a certain extent, which will trigger a rise in cotton prices under a certain factor.

    2. US side: output stagnation next year and export rebounded


    From the change of output, the cotton planting area in the United States increased to 14 million 100 thousand acres (+9.7%) in 2018/2019, while the output decreased by 550 thousand tons to 4 million tons (-12%). The 2019/2020 cotton planting area dropped slightly to 13 million 790 thousand acres (-2.4%) in the year of 2019/2020, but the yield has reached a harvest of 4 million 400 thousand tons (+40 tons, +10%). It can be speculated that if the existing sowing area is maintained next spring, there will be no room for expansion next autumn compared with this year's high yield. On the contrary, there will be a market speculation in the growing season.

    From the export situation, 2018/2019 cotton exports decreased by 330 thousand tons to 3 million 210 thousand tons in the year of 2018/2019, but the export volume of 2019/2020 increased by 380 thousand tons to 3 million 590 thousand tons. Obviously, the decline in exports in the previous year was related to the Sino US trade war, but the volume of exports increased this year, but the increments after the resumption of normal trade between China and the United States have not been taken into account.

    If China resumed and increased its import of US cotton, it would overturn the possible decline in cotton production next year. Then, 2019/2020 cotton has a potential of upward trend.

    3. global aspect: the possibility of tighter supply and demand

    From a static point of view, according to the latest USDA data, the supply and demand of global cotton is in a state of equilibrium. USDA forecast: in 2019/2020, the world's cotton production increased, an increase of 650 thousand tons compared to the same period of 26 million 400 thousand tons, but the annual consumption decreased by 4 thousand tons to 26 million 210 thousand tons. Compared with the output data, supply and demand were in equilibrium, ending stocks increased by only 130 thousand tons to 17 million 500 thousand tons, and inventory consumption rose slightly to 66.7%. In view of this, it is difficult for the outer cotton to fluctuate upward.

    However, the next year's output and future demand will be greatly changed. The increase in global cotton output is mainly from the United States and India. The possibility of continued growth in the next year is less likely. Therefore, global output should not increase next year, and there will also be weather disruption. From the perspective of demand, Sino US negotiations have achieved the first stage results, and their impact will increase the global cotton consumption space.

    Conclusion and assumption

    Overall, the 2020 cotton market will show a fluctuating pattern. A preliminary agreement on Sino US trade is a strategic turning point, laying a long-term foundation for the recovery and growth of cotton consumption. Despite the short term pressure of new cotton listing, inventories are in a state of decline after a long period of consumption and are in the middle and low level. Therefore, with the gradual cold winter, spring will come.

    The trend of Zheng cotton in 2020 may be interpreted in three stages. As follows: in the first stage, there is a small rebound in spring, high point or early March. In the meantime, there was the acquisition of state reserves, thus resolving the pressure from new cotton listing. Because of the existence of a series of hedging upwards, the market is dominated by wide range fluctuations. Entering the January, the first stage agreement between China and the US is expected to be formally signed, or the US cotton market will rise in winter, and it will lead to a slight rebound in Zheng cotton. Because of selling more packages, it will limit the rise space (14000 yuan / ton up and down).

    In the second stage, the pressure of deliveries and dumping is repeated, and Zheng cotton forms the two bottom, and the low point appears in late May. In the middle of March, Chen cotton warehouse receipt was faced with delivery and cancellation, and the pressure was not large. The real pressure is the 2005 contract, which will deliver more than one million tons at that time. Last year, it collapsed due to the 1905 contract settlement and the collapse of Sino US negotiations. In addition, the last national savings auction began in May. It is estimated that in 2020, the State Reserve "turn out" began in April. In the 4 and May, the northern hemisphere entered the cotton planting stage. At this time, the sowing area and climate of the main producing countries will be the key indicators.

    The third stage, we speculate: in the middle of 2020, Zheng cotton market is expected to enter the upward stage of oscillation, the time will continue to 8 and September, the height is 16000 yuan / ton up and down.

    From two aspects: 1. entering the June, cotton growth has entered a critical stage, when the weather factors are more sensitive. In the foregoing analysis, global cotton yields and yields may decline. 2. cotton consumption will enter the peak season in the second half of the year, and the reduction of US tariff will help China's textile and clothing exports. In addition, considering that last year many Chen cotton did not have time to guarantee and sell, therefore, Zheng cotton's upward pressure will become heavy and the space for rise will be restricted.
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