Before The Spring Festival, The Market Of Polyester Filament Is Loose And The Risk Of Pulling Up In The First Quarter Is Large.

In 2019, the polyester filament industry was fluctuating. In the first half of the year, it was dragged down by high inventories, and prices dropped down all the way. The mid year market was slightly improved, but it didn't last long. The fourth quarter of ethylene glycol upturned, the cost pressure was coming to the surface, and the demand side got cold ahead of time. At the end of the year, the polyester filament fell into a stalemate. After experiencing the high inventory pressure situation at the beginning of the year, the stock control of polyester filament enterprises is in the safe period, along with the decline of weaving start up, the polyester filament enterprises have also been running down, hoping that the light load will be launched in 2020, and the Spring Festival will usher in a good start.

Before the predic polyester filament market, we mainly analyze the market situation from the following aspects:

Focus: low inventory

Impact index:

Fig. 1 weekly stock trend of three mainstream models of PET filament yarn

Source: lung Chung

In the whole year, there are two peaks and three trough periods in polyester filament stock. The first trough appeared before the Spring Festival. At the end of the year, the enterprises took the risk of avoiding risks, and the preferential sales promotion before the festival had a significant effect on the inventory. In the month, the price trend of polyester filament also showed a state of first suppression and later promotion. The difference between the high and low price was 350 yuan / ton in the month. The second trough appeared at the end of June. During the first quarter of the doldrums, the polyester filament enterprises had built up their stocks, and heard that some enterprises were stockpiling outside the factory area.

Fig. 22018-2019 comparison of the stock of polyester filament Enterprises

Source: lung Chung

Since May, the polyester filament enterprise has launched a sales promotion mode, and its inventory has dropped rapidly. By the end of June, the overall inventory of the industry has decreased by 18-19 days. The corresponding price has also been increasing. In early June, polyester filament POY150D/48F talked about the focus of 7450 yuan / ton, and in early July, the price was raised to 8900 yuan / ton, and the price difference was 1500 yuan / ton. According to this logic, low inventory is an important booster of market rising, and the stock of polyester filament industry is at a low level at present. The enterprise still expresses that there is still a plan to promote inventory at the end of the year. It is hoped that the inventory control will reach a level within a week at the end of the year, even if there is a certain amount of pre storage period during the Spring Festival.

Focus: low load

Impact index:

Maintenance statistics of polyester filament equipment in recent years

Unit: 10000 tons

Enterprise name	Involving capacity	Reduced stopping time
New Feng Ming	Sixty-five	Two thousand and nineteen December 5th 2013
Tiansheng	Forty	Two thousand and nineteen December 11th 2013
Sheng Hong	Twenty-five	Two thousand and nineteen December 15th 2013
Ningbo Da wo	Twenty-five	Two thousand and nineteen December 20th 2013
Fujian Xiang Lu	Eighteen	Two thousand and nineteen December 20th 2013
Tong Kun Heng Sheng	Ten	Two thousand and nineteen December 20th 2013
Macro production	Four	Two thousand and nineteen December 30th 2013
Tong Kun Heng Tong	Forty	Two thousand and nineteen December 30th 2013
Anji Huayi	Thirteen	Two thousand and nineteen December 31st 2013
Fujian Bai Hong	Twenty	Two thousand and twenty January 1st 2013
Rinda	Eighteen	Two thousand and twenty January 2nd 2013
Ningbo Quan di	Twenty	Two thousand and twenty Early January
Fujian Jinxing	Twenty-three	Two thousand and twenty January 2nd 2013
New Feng Ming	Thirty	Two thousand and twenty Early January
Wu Jianglixin	Eight	Two thousand and twenty Early January
Tiansheng	Forty	Two thousand and twenty January 4th 2013
Haixin, Jiangsu	Fifty	Two thousand and twenty January 5th 2013
Taicang Shen Jiu	Forty	Two thousand and twenty January 8th 2013
Changshu Heng Yi	Fifteen	Two thousand and twenty January 10th 2013
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Fifteen	Two thousand and twenty January 10th 2013
Jiangsu Hongtai	Twenty-five	Two thousand and twenty January 12th 2013
Changle, Taicang (Hua Ru)	Twenty-five	Two thousand and twenty Mid January
Shaoxing Jiabao	Thirty-four	Two thousand and twenty Mid January
Fujian latitude and longitude	Twenty	Two thousand and twenty January 11th 2013
Wuxi Huaya	Thirty	Two thousand and twenty January 22nd 2013
Zhejiang ancient Silk Road	One hundred and twenty	Two thousand and twenty February 15th 2013
Kaiser petrochemical	Thirty-eight	Two thousand and twenty March 2013

Source: lung Chung

The above table is for the statistics of the maintenance of the polyester filament device in the near future. In December, the production capacity of the device was reduced by about 2 million 400 thousand tons. The capacity of the repair plant was about 4 million tons before the Spring Festival. In addition, the pre parking device had not been restarted. From a comprehensive perspective, before the Spring Festival, the repair capacity of polyester filament accounts for more than 20% of the total capacity of the country, and it is expected to start to near 78%.

Fig. 32018-2019 comparison of running load of polyester filament device

Source: lung Chung

However, in 2019, compared with 2018, it was still at a high level, and the overhaul at the end of the year was much less than that of the same period last year. So the low start up in 2019 is not really low. Long Zhong understands that at present, POY is directly downstream, and the start up of the projectile plant has dropped to around 76%. Chemical fiber weaving started near 64%, to the main application field of polyester, the water loom in Shengze started about 73%, and the loom loom in Changxin has been reduced to 6. Therefore, compared with the downstream, the load of polyester filament is still high, so the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.

Focus: low yield

Impact index:

Fig. 4 profit trend of mainstream polyester filament

Source: lung Chung

As shown above, the trend of POY and FDY is quite similar. In the second half of the year, the trend of DTY deviates from the trend of POY and FDY. In particular, since the four quarter, FDY has been losing money. Since December, ethylene glycol has been affected by the news of closure, prices have skyrocketed and plummeted, while polyester filament has failed to follow up, and enterprises have been digesting some of their gains, so profits are gradually shrinking and even losing money. At the end of the year, with the raw materials down, the profit level of polyester filament has improved. However, FDY is hovering near the profit and loss balance line. The pressure of business cost pressure is obvious.

Recently, bilateral trade negotiations have been releasing good news, so some enterprises plan to pull up slightly after the Spring Festival. At present, the market of polyester filament is still in the game situation, so the risk of pulling up is bigger. It is understood that the current low inventory enterprises plan before the smooth transition, wait-and-see mainly, a small part of the enterprise inventory is still high, the plan before the preferential sales promotion, at present, "bag for safety" mentality under the guidance of enterprises, more "light up to battle", is expected next year, the market is better than the beginning of 2019, but whether the market is on schedule, is unknown.