2019 Spinning Service Plate: Domestic Goods Should Be Self-Improvement.

In the cold winter months, is the textile and clothing industry just like the spring breeze or the wind and rain?

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2019, the total retail sales of social consumer goods rose to 8% year-on-year, a 0.8 percentage point increase over October. Among them, clothing, shoes, hats, needles, textile category retail sales value growth from last month's negative growth to 4.6%.

In the factory of Qinghe, cashmere capital, the machine works overtime, and the textile workers often work late into the night. The same scene also appeared in the down jacket, 217 sets of 11 thousand yuan down clothing gift box, in Li Jiaqi's live broadcast, 20 seconds were sold out, the brand side urgent replenishment 700 sets.

Weak retail data, Hong Kong stocks are best in 5 years?

After spinning into the cold winter, the textile industry is gradually rebounding. However, if the timeline is lengthened, the rebound in retail data market shows that the overall growth rate of the industry is slowing down. Among them, in November 2019, the zero year-on-year growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate of clothing and footwear retail sales was 0.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

According to the latest statistics from the International Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of the above units increased by 3.7% compared with the same period last year. The total number of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 3% over the same period last year. The overall growth rate of the 4 plates of gold, silver, jewelry, petroleum and products, automobiles, construction and decoration materials was lower than the average.

On the whole, the overall retail sales data of the spinning and weaving industry in 2019 showed a weak trend. Besides the overall retail sales growth of the industry, the online performance was also unsatisfactory. From the annual online retail data, the growth rate of wearing physical goods in most segments is below the consumption class and retail sales growth rate.

Despite the poor performance of the industry's retail data, the overall sector's performance in Hong Kong stocks in 2019 has been the highest in nearly 5 years. Zhitong finance and economics APP learned that with the hammer hitting tone at 12 noon on the last trading day in 2019, the Hong Kong stock textile and apparel sector finally handed over the best answer in nearly 5 years, rising 34.31% throughout the year and winning 9.07% of the Hang Seng Index.

Faucets show outstanding strength and "sell face" short selling mechanism

In mid 2019, short selling agencies were eyeing the leader of Hong Kong Stock clothing industry. In June and July, Bonitas and muddy water spearheaded the launch of Boston (03998) and Anta (02020), while the two saw the year-round rise of the first ten. After encountering short selling, the stock price has not only been unaffected, but also has been steadily increasing.

APP understands that in 2019, a total of 3 indexes doubled the share price. Among them, Lining (02331), Bosideng and Anta of clothing industry respectively increased 179.92%, 95.97% and 87.69% respectively.

As of December 31, 2019, Anta sports became the largest market value of the spinning and weaving board, with a total market value of HK $188 billion 457 million. Among them, Anta sports and Shenzhou International are the HK $100 billion target of market capitalization, and the market value of HK $10 billion is 9.

Up to now, there are 17 Hong Kong stocks in the textile and clothing sector. In 2019, the shareholding ratio of China Hong Kong through the plate index increased by 1.45 percentage points on average. As of December 31, 2019, the average shareholding ratio was 3.67%.

Of the 17 targets, La Natsu Bell (06116) is the largest share holding company in Hong Kong stock market. However, the company's annual share price fell by 78.65%.

Zhitong finance and economics APP learned that La Natsu Bell's share price began to decline in 2017. Xing Xing Xing, the controlling shareholder of the company, has 6 times Pledged Shares of the company, and the total pledged shares account for 99.81% of its direct holdings. Since the company's worst performance announcement in July this year, its share price has fallen further and has fallen below 5 yuan. La Natsu Bell, once known as the "Chinese version of ZARA", has been down all the way through stock prices, and now its market value is less than 3 billion yuan.

In addition, Lining and Anta are the largest companies with the largest shareholding ratio except La Natsu Bell. Among them, the share price respectively increased by 179.92% and 87.69% respectively.

From the operational data, the inventory turnover rate of the main participants in the spinning and weaving section reached 1.73 in the middle of 2019, a slight increase compared with the same period last year. Among them, Lining in recent years, inventory management capabilities increased rapidly. Anta sports, 31st degree (01361), Samsonite (01910), Jiangnan Buyi and other inventory turnover rate fell faster.

Judging from the performance, nearly 5 years, Samsonite, Anta sports two companies perform better than average. Among them, Anta's revenue grew rapidly in the middle of 2017. In addition, Lining and Bosideng both maintained a steady upward linear growth.

In terms of profit performance, Anta sports profit level has remained above average level in the past five years, and Samsonite profits have fallen year by year, which is lower than average in the mid 2018. In addition, Lining's profit growth rate has been faster in the past 5 years, and the mid 2019 is higher than the industry average.

On the whole, the market of spinning and weaving board in 2019 and the companies with better performance were concentrated in sports and down clothing field. Fangfang textile also mentioned in its research report that due to limited barriers and high-end market competition vacancies, sportswear and down jacket performance broke out.

Future trend keywords

Based on the current point of view, we can see 2020 and future industry changes. According to Zhitong finance and economics APP summarizing industry views, there are several key words in the industry for future industry trend prediction.

The consumption structure is further becoming "M". As the economy slows down, the consumption of the middle end is facing a bottleneck, and the consumption structure will develop towards the polarization of high cost performance and extravagant consumption. With the higher cost of living expenses in a second tier city, some of the new middle class will also tilt towards cost-effective products. In addition, the popularity of the Internet and mobile Internet is constantly breaking the restrictions of regional channels, which will promote the convergence of the three or four line of consumption and the convergence of the second and second lines, or sink the market or upgrade consumption.

By contrast, mass consumption and sunken market competition will become more intense. The high cost performance products will become the competitive heights of the low-end brands. High end brands mainly focus on brand sedimentation and long-term investment.

The tide of the country is rising gradually. In recent years, the enthusiasm of market economy has gradually increased. The 90 and 00 generation of new consumption main players have higher acceptance of local brands. The rising tide of national economy, based on economic prosperity and national self-confidence, will also bring new opportunities for local fashion brands.

Material consumption is upgrading to service consumption. Along with the overall change of consumption industry, the consumption structure will tend to transform to service consumption. Among them, the Decathlon mode can reflect this characteristic. Decathlon's warehouse space, sports equipment and other elements constitute the basis of experiential consumption. Among them, users of different ages can have different interactive experiences in Decathlon.

For the next year's industry outlook, Orient Securities believes that demand side will not be substantially improved next year, but the industry's health is better than the historical level, so the industry's probability will be consolidated at the bottom. Under the background of weak cotton prices, sluggish domestic demand and unstable external economic environment, challenges are greater than opportunities.

Among them, sportswear plate is still the most promising segment of the spinning and weaving board in 2020. Sportswear is a sub medium with a high level of scenery in the industry. At present, the domestic sportswear brands are more concentrated, or they will further concentrate on the leading companies. In addition, Tianfeng securities expects that as the consumption data continues to weaken, leisure leading brands are also in the adjustment period, and the performance in 2020 is expected to recover.