2019 Review: Cotton Prices Fell, Xinjiang Accounted For 85% Of Output.

In 2019, China's cotton policy remained stable, the rotation of cotton reserves was orderly, the import volume increased, the output of cotton was stable and slightly decreased, the market supply was ample, and the demand for cotton decreased, and the price declined compared with that of the previous year.


First, cotton prices fell sharply, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices increased.


Since May, with the repeated economic and trade frictions between China and the United States, the spot price of cotton has fallen sharply. In October 3rd, China's cotton price index CCIndex (3128B) was at the lowest price of 12598 yuan / ton in the year, which was 2771 yuan lower than the beginning of the year. After the positive impact of the progress of China's cotton imports and Sino US trade negotiations, prices rose steadily. In December 31st, China's cotton price index CCIndex (3128B) was 13369 yuan / ton, and the annual average price was 14212 yuan / ton, down 10.5% from the same period last year. During the year, the international market price fluctuated. The average price of the CotlookA index was 77.83 cents per pound, down 14.85% from the same period last year. The average price difference between the domestic and external cotton was 1020 yuan, the maximum price difference was 2744 yuan, and the minimum price difference was 0.19 yuan.


Two, seed cotton purchase price and quality decline.


Since the acquisition and processing of new cotton, the processing speed has been faster and the quality has decreased. The average purchase price of grade 3128 seed cotton was 400 yuan cotton processing enterprise 5.56 yuan / kg, down 18% compared with the same period last year. According to the subregional perspective, the cotton picking period in Xinjiang was concentrated and processed earlier than last year. The average purchase price was 5.47 yuan / kg, down 19.1% compared with the same period last year. At the end of December, the processing of the mainland also entered the middle and late stages. The seed cotton purchase volume increased, and the average purchase price was 5.91, down 14.5% compared with the same period last year.


According to the cotton notarization inspection data, the quality of new cotton decreased. By the end of December 31st, the white cotton grade 3 and above accounted for 84.9%, 6.7 percentage points lower than last year; the length of 29 mm and above accounted for 55.03%, 6.01 percentage points lower than the previous year; the A+B value of the micron value was 82.92%, which was 3.68 percentage points lower than that of the previous year.


Three. Orderly rotation of reserve cotton.


The reserve cotton continued to turn out in 2019, and the turnover was generally smooth. Although the turnover decreased significantly compared with the previous year, the turnover rate increased as a result of better price performance. From May 5th to September 30th, the total amount of cotton reserves was 996 thousand tons, down 60.3% from the same period last year, and the turnover rate was 85.7%, an increase of 27.6 percentage points over the same period last year.


In December 2nd, when the reserve cotton wheel entered the work, as of January 3rd, the actual turnover was 37 thousand tons, the turnover rate was only 22.02%, the lowest price was 12879 yuan / ton, the highest price was 13522 yuan / ton.


Four. Cotton production is further concentrated in Xinjiang.


According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total output of cotton in China in 2019 was 5 million 889 thousand tons, a decrease of 213 thousand tons compared with 2018, a decrease of 3.5%. Cotton production in Xinjiang accounted for 84.9% of the country, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous year. The cotton planting area of China has declined slightly. In 2019, the cotton planting area in China was 50 million 88 thousand mu, which was 228 thousand mu less than that in 2018 and decreased by 0.5%. In different regions, cotton planting is further concentrated in Xinjiang cotton region. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased by 738 thousand mu over the year of 2018, an increase of 2%, accounting for 76.1% of the national total, representing a 1.8 percentage point increase over the previous year. The implementation of cotton target price subsidy policy in Xinjiang has mobilized the enthusiasm of cotton growers and made Xinjiang cotton planting area steadily increase. In other cotton areas, the planting area of cotton was reduced compared with that in 2018 due to factors such as planting benefit and agricultural structure adjustment.


Five. Increase in cotton imports


In 2019, the departments concerned further improved the cotton import quota management system, and the number of imported cotton quotas was relatively loose, and cotton imports increased significantly. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of 2019, China imported 1 million 695 thousand and 600 tons of cotton, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year. Affected by the import tariffs of the United States and Canada, the import structure of cotton has been adjusted, and the proportion of US cotton imports has declined. Brazil has become the largest source of cotton imports in China, accounting for 25% of the total imports, followed by Australia, the United States, India and Uzbekistan.