Caught In The "Warm Winter", The Clothing Industry Encountered "High Inventory".

At the beginning of the new year, the clothing industry did not usher in a good start.


In recent years, Xiaobian has seen several notable push in subscription numbers:


Recently, urban beauty disclosed the 2019 performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit in 2019 will be no less than 980 million yuan, which will make the market a big surprise.


For the reasons for the huge loss of performance, city beauty announced in the announcement that because the market demand is slowing down, the business activities of urban beauty are facing adversity, which greatly affects the performance of the consumer oriented clothing industry and the group.


In the evening of December 31st, Columbus announced the bankruptcy as an outdoor sports brand with the same reputation as Pathfinder in China.


It is reported that after Forever 21, New Look and Gap, the fast fashion brand Zara also had an accident. Overnight, all ZARA stores in Wuhan are closed.


Although there is an important relationship between business failures and poor management, we can also recall that the clothing industry has a "hidden rule": the most worthless part of clothing industry is inventory, but inventory pressure is a common problem in the entire garment industry.


Clothing inventory of up to 85 billion 400 million yuan, enough to digest decades.


In 2019, a large number of garment enterprises went bankrupt. Most of them focused on La Natsu Bell's shop clearance and clothing clearance sale. Clothing enterprises suffered a bottleneck in 2019, and inventory is also one of the most important reasons.


Now near the Spring Festival, whether clothing enterprises or small storefront, have begun to inventory, Xiaobian recently attracted by a video.


This is just a stock of a clothing trading company, so much can be imagined, how much is the inventory of the entire garment industry? Since HM burned 120 thousand tons and 28 billion 400 million stocks were exposed each year, the clothing industry's "fig leaf" was pulled down, and stocks began to be concerned. According to relevant statistics, in 2019, China's clothing inventory reached 85 billion 400 million yuan. Is the number amazing?


Domestic demand is insufficient, clothing consumption index is decreasing.


In recent years, with the slow growth of economy and the change of consumption structure, the consumption of residents on clothing has begun to decrease. The weakness of terminal demand is also one of the reasons for the cold clothing industry in 2019. Now, after 90 and 00, it is the main force of consumption, but generally speaking, social wages are not high, but the pressure is very great.


As can be seen from the table, during the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, the consumption index of clothing in the market increased significantly, and the market demand continued to enlarge. However, since the second half of 2019, the consumer price index of clothing in China has been decreasing linearly. Although the data in 2019 December have not yet come out, the overall situation is not very high, and the approximate rate is still declining.


The textile and garment industry that watches the sky is caught by the warm winter.


We have always said that the textile and garment industry is looking at the sky. There are surveys showing that the 10 years from 2010 to 2019 are the hottest ten years in history. In 2019, it will also be the second year high or third highest year since records. At the same time, some experts predict that the probability of cold winter this year will be zero, which is undoubtedly a blow to the winter products of textile and garment enterprises.


A professional has revealed that even if the down jacket on the market is stopped, it will digest enough for 20 years.


Let's take down garments as an example. At the same time, with the high inventory of down garments, data show that the size of our down garments is still on the rise. According to the statistics of China clothing association, the market of Chinese down garment market in 2018 is about 106 billion 800 million yuan, up 10% over last year. With the upgrading of consumption, it is estimated that the market size of Chinese down garments will reach 138 billion 200 million yuan in 2020.


The weather warming, stock accumulation, but the continuous expansion of scale has led to the downfall of down jacket fabrics this year. And weaving and fabrics as the upper reaches of clothing, the market quotation in 2019 is not satisfactory.


In terms of fabric, taking Nei spinning and imitation memory as an example, as the most conventional fabric of down jacket, sales decreased significantly in 2019, and profits and prices were significantly reduced. For example, 75D weft twist imitation memory at the beginning of 2.8 yuan / meter, now quoted at 2.3 yuan / meter; 380T nees spinning from 4.5 yuan / meter down 3.3 yuan / meter...


"This year's imitation memory grey cloth has been reduced by 0.7-0.8 yuan / m, and the profit is 20% less than last year," said Chen, who is an imitation memory trader.


Weaving, weaving enterprises in 2019 is a bitter tear, production and marketing difficult to flat, high inventory, lack of funds, how many enterprises can not endure down has been closed. Now, near the Spring Festival holiday, the weaving enterprises' market has slightly recovered, but according to the sample enterprises monitored by China's silk net, the inventory of grey fabric in Shengze has risen to about 38 days, which is still at a high level compared with the same period in previous years. And after the start of the year, the machine is restarted. If demand is still insufficient, weaving enterprises will only continue to accumulate inventory, so much inventory, can the market digest?


From raw material grey cloth, from fabric to clothing, they are all in one continuous line and interact with each other. Demand is still the most critical factor. In 2019, the whole industry chain was stripped off. Can we expect to be better in 2020?