Geopolitical Conflicts Lead To Rising Prices Of Textile Raw Materials, But Subsequent Effects Will Gradually Weaken.

Geopolitical conflict station C, a new hot spot for the industry

In 2019, just after the end of the new year, the world oil painting world suddenly changed. Crude oil and gold rose sharply after the US decapitation operation in Iran last Friday (January 3rd).

This "black swan" has made the world's financial markets fly all over the world. In a few days, the United States and Iran have become the hot spots of the market, and have also made the long silence polyester market a fire!

In January 6th, the products in polyester industry rose sharply.

PTA futures, PTA futures 2005 contract closed at 15 o'clock on January 6th 5098 points, compared with the previous trading day rose 104 points, or 2.08%.

Ethylene glycol futures, ethylene glycol futures main contract 2005 closed on January 6th, 4753 points, compared with the previous trading day rose 110 points, or 2.37%.

In January 7th, the price of main raw material polyester filament was also raised by 50-150 yuan.

Such as: Jiangsu a large factory polyester polyester rose 100 yuan / ton, Taicang factory polyester POY rose 50/ tons concessions cancel, Wujiang factory FDY rose 100 yuan / ton, Xiaoshan factory DTY rose 100-150 yuan / ton, Zhejiang factory DTY rose 50-100 yuan / ton......

For raw material people, this hard won market is not easy. Earlier, from the downstream market research, many textile bosses are not enthusiastic about stockpiling raw materials at the end of the year, and even a small number of business owners choose not to hoard raw materials and purchase on demand. Most bosses choose a little bit, but they will not exceed 1 months' consumption.

After half a month, under the geopolitical boost, downstream manufacturers' stockpiling of raw materials seems to have changed. Judging from the recent production and marketing, the downstream manufacturers have improved their enthusiasm for getting goods, and the manufacturers have more or less stockpiling operations, especially conventional products.

But the market is coming fast, and after 3 days, 6 days, two days, production and sales exceed 100, this wave of stock is "on the decline", nearly two days, production and sales fell to 5 below.

At the end of the year, the price of raw materials is rising.

The early polyester filament market has been in a stalemate trend, the main reason is that the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not been high, and the lack of good is also one of the reasons for the continued wait-and-see in the downstream.

In addition, polyester filament has been on the rise in recent years, and its price has been at a low level for many years. For those factories with less raw materials, the price of polyester filament is still attractive in the current environment.

After all, weaving in previous years is a common practice for pre weaving enterprises, and the demand for raw materials will also be improved if the buying and selling factors are not stimulated. After all, it has already entered the new year. According to convention, raw materials are unlikely to fall. But if geopolitics continues to ferment, it will further drive up the price of polyester raw materials. Then, after the beginning of the year, the raw material market will have a good start. So many textile owners who are not prepared to hoarding raw materials have recently bought some raw materials.

A total of 300 water jet looms in Wujiang, Wang said: "recently bought some raw materials, mainly based on conventional polyester FDY75D, one is just demand, and the two is the market has to be prepared."

The simulation silk product is Wang's main product. At the end of December, he was not optimistic about the raw material market. He thought it was not yet the end of the market, so his stocking intentions were not strong. The market was detonated by the "US Iraq issue" and caught him off guard. He immediately contacted the raw material factory to purchase raw materials.

Li, another chief taffy and Chun Ya textile, said that the factory had already prepared raw material inventory for about 2 months, which was more than one month ahead of the original plan. On the one hand, it had already received orders after the year. On the other hand, it believed that the good profits of the continuous upgrading of the raw materials were not yet clear, but the possibility of price collapse was not large.

"Had to buy" became the latest voice of cloth boss buying raw materials. After all, it has just gone through a bad 2019. Many textile bosses have not much surplus grain on hand, and a lot of cash is stored in the warehouse.

Therefore, even at the end of the market, raw cloth owners will not buy the raw materials very much, but they will still keep the raw materials in 1 months, but they will be extended for about 1 weeks than the previous procurement cycle.

How far can this market go? Cloth boss is generally pessimistic.

In recent years, many market participants believe that geopolitics is likely to become one of the main factors affecting crude oil prices throughout the year. For the textile industry, crude oil has played a certain role in the upstream of the whole industry chain, but if the crude oil factor has been in a state of fluctuation, its impact on the polyester industry chain will gradually decrease, and the sustainability will be discounted.

This is indeed the case. In January 8th, the US Iraq issue continued to escalate, but the ripple of the polyester industry chain was much smaller than that of the day before yesterday. In January 8th, PTA and MEG continued to run short after the market opened up, and the market ended at a slight rise. The price of polyester filament kept stable.

The PTA contract of the main force of the Zhengzhou commercial center closed at 5032 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, a slight increase of 8 yuan / ton, or 0.16%. 2005.

The main contract of MEG of the big business center was closed at 4793 yuan / ton at the end of the 2005 contract. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, it rose by 88 yuan / ton, or 1.87%.

The rise of the chemical fiber industry chain driven by crude oil may coincide with the year-end storage season of the downstream weaving factories, so the effect is more significant than that of the earlier stage. Now the weaving factory's production has entered the countdown, the load of the major clusters has been decreasing, the demand for raw materials has also dropped slightly, and the continuous intention of stocking is not as good as before.

Now the loom start rate has dropped to about 5-6 in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and most of the textile operators in the outlying factories have been on holiday. Shen Zong, who opened the factory in Northern Jiangsu, said he was not optimistic about the market after the start of the year, because the terminal demand did not release the positive signal, the customer orders were still cautious, the market was depressed from the bottom up, and the purchase intention of raw materials would only stay on demand procurement.

However, from the perspective of polyester filament, the maintenance of polyester factories this Spring Festival can be quite large. Now, many sets of filament and staple fibers are repaired and repaired as scheduled.

This week, two sets of 400 thousand tons of polymer spinning filament plant in Taicang POY plant were shutdown for 7 days. It is expected to restart in January 31st. A total of 500 thousand tons of polymerized spinning filament assembly of two sets of two plants in Siyang will be shutdown for maintenance on 5 days. It is expected to be restarted in early February.

With the opening of the polyester factory before and after the Spring Festival, the market load will be further shifted down, which will form a certain support for its price.

Now, by the end of the year, the probability of finishing the polyester filament with "closing door red" is larger. Although there are still many uncertainties in the market after next year's opening up, especially if the prosperity of the downstream fabric and garment market has not improved, the terminal depression will gradually be transmitted upward. Therefore, the polyester filament is expected to rise or "underburn" in the past years.