Listed Pig Enterprises 2019 Full Year "Profit" Lock: The Fourth Quarter Ahead Of The Three Quarter Sum 500 Billion Club Valuation Confusion

On the evening of January 8th, new hope (000876.SZ) released December 2019 sales figures, and the annual sales revenue of hog reached 8 billion 546 million yuan.

Plus the first two days of the updated 300498.SZ and 002714.SZ sales data, the annual performance of the head pig enterprises can almost be locked.

According to the information provided by zhuochuang, in the three quarter of 2019, the average price range of pig slaughtered was 18.5 yuan to 30 yuan per kilogram, although the price of the fourth quarter dropped somewhat, but the lowest price did not fall below 30 yuan / kg.

The data disclosed by listed companies should be more intuitive. Twenty-first Century economic report reporter estimates that the three quarter of 2019, the stock price of animal husbandry stock is 20.81 yuan / kg, the fourth quarter rose to 31.44 yuan / kg.

In the four quarter of the steady growth of single month sales background, the fourth quarter profit of animal husbandry stock, whether year-on-year, or the chain ratio will be very obvious growth. Wentworth's performance forecast showed that net profit in 2019 ranged from 13 billion 850 million yuan to 14 billion 300 million yuan, with a median of 14 billion 75 million yuan.

In other words, wye's net profit in the four quarter of 2019 could reach 7 billion 990 million yuan, an increase of 170% over the three quarter. As the company still has a large portion of its income from broilers and its business concentration is not strong, the profits of other head pig enterprises will be higher in the fourth quarter.

The first quarter is the three quarter.

The high price of pork in 2019 appeared in the early November. At that time, the average price of pig slaughtered in the country broke 40 yuan / kg, and then it fell for two consecutive months.

"In November and December last year, the supply and demand changes were limited, and the demand side dropped more obviously." Zhang Lili, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information pig industry, said in January 9th that the main reason for the decline in demand was that the price of live pigs was too high in October, which had a more obvious inhibitory effect on terminal consumption, thereby driving prices down.

However, compared with the average selling price of October, the overall decline is relatively limited. Zhuo Chuang data show that the low price of the fourth quarter pig price is still around 33 yuan / kg.

Take the new hope as an example, in November 2019 and December, the average selling price of live pigs was 31.84 yuan / kg, 31.92 yuan / kg, and the average selling price of the same stock in the same period was 30.3 yuan and 30.52 yuan respectively, the price was obviously higher than the three quarter average selling price.

Sales volume, pig enterprises in the three quarter of the first small volume.

According to statistics, in the three quarter of 2019, the stock market of animal husbandry was sold for 705 thousand and 500 months, and this figure increased to 773 thousand and 900 at the fourth quarter. The new hope of the fourth quarter of pig sales trend of change, and the original stock holdings remain the same.

Meanwhile, there is another detail that can not be ignored at the same time. On the 9 day, the new hope pointed out that "the weight of pig slaughtering in December is indeed higher than that before."

Driven by three factors, the annual reports of pig enterprises will probably appear in the "fourth quarter profits over the first three quarters".

This involves a problem of cost and profit space. According to the economic report in twenty-first Century, the cost of domestic pig breeding is 15 yuan / kg, plus the cost of environmental protection and environmental protection. After the cost is locked, the average price of 20 yuan and 30 yuan will not be the same as the pulling effect on the profits of farming enterprises.

Wen's shares are typical. According to performance forecasts, the company's fourth quarter net profit in 2019 reached a median of 7 billion 990 million yuan, significantly higher than the three quarter of the same year, the sum of 6 billion 85 million yuan.

From the point of view of elasticity of performance, animal husbandry enterprises such as animal husbandry stock accounted for more than 95% of the pig business revenue. The fourth quarter profit growth rate may be higher than that of the Wen's stock with the broiler business, and the new hope of higher feed income.

Wind's seller's consistent profit forecast shows that the profit of Mu yuan in 2019 is 4 billion 980 million yuan.

This means that the company's single quarter profit in the four quarter needs to reach 3 billion 590 million yuan, an increase of 232.8% over the three quarter.

Judging from the situation of the same company, it is not impossible.

The contradiction between profit growth and 40 times valuation

"In the first half of 2020, I had a relatively cautious attitude towards supply, and it is hard to see a marked increase." A head of listed farmers in China said in January 9th.

This is similar to the result predicted by Zhang Lili. "The northern region began to resume production in March 2019. According to the calculation of the growth period of two yuan sows, the period of pregnancy and the slaughter period of commercial pigs, it is estimated that in a year four months to a year and a half, the time for the emergence of a significant increase is the July to August of this year."

Research results from a domestic commodity Research Institute at the end of December in Guangdong showed that the local pig self-sufficiency rate was 65.4% before the outbreak of 2019, and it had dropped to around 36.5% in December 2019. This requires external research to fill the local consumption gap.

At present, the industry generally believes that the first half of 2020, domestic pig prices will remain at a high level of volatility, the core logic is that capacity recovery takes time.

Transmission to the level of listed companies means that the profit scale in the first half of the year will probably increase year by year, and the ratio will decrease.

The former is due to the lower profit base of the head office in the same period of 2019, such as Mu yuan shares, and the whole industry did not enter into a profitable state until June. The latter is due to the high price of pigs in the fourth quarter of 2019, resulting in the high base of single quarterly profits of listed companies.

Therefore, in the first half of 2020, there may be a continuous increase in profits of all the top pig enterprises, but the two market trend is not satisfactory.

First of all, the profit trend of aquaculture enterprises. On the premise that the basic data of livestock stock and other basic data remain unchanged, the high point of the current pig cycle has been established in early November.

The second is stock price and valuation factor. Although pork stocks have fallen back in recent months, since the beginning of 2019, the stock and new hope of the stock have reached 225.52% and 186.18% respectively.

Plus Wen's shares, the latest market value of these three breeding enterprises is close to 500 billion yuan, which is not conducive to the continued speculation of the two level market funds.

The valuation of head pig enterprises is not low.

Even according to the four quarter single quarter profit of 3 billion 590 million yuan, the stock price of Mu yuan was 2.3 yuan in 2019. According to the closing price in January 9th, it is equivalent to 40.66 times the valuation.

At present, to maintain the high level of pork stocks to maintain high, only the first half of 2020 will remain high, and the price will slow down in the second half of the year, thus driving the total profits of listed companies to grow this year.