Shipping Market Reform Encountered The Spring Festival "Puzzle" 2020 Spring Festival Staged A New Version Of "People On The Road"

"No kidding, I really can't afford to buy a ticket to go home." On the evening of January 9th, a senior airline official laughed at the gathering of media executives and said that the ticket price of Spring Festival travel was tight. The free ticket qualification of airline employees was not enough for the seats in the peak season. "It's too expensive!" The executive's words suddenly made the scene laugh, "this is the headline question".

Open Ctrip, the same Cheng elong network and other OTA, near the spring festival ticket prices rise rapidly, especially hot routes.

Is the air ticket really expensive this year? Is there too little supply that makes the price go up so bad? This is not the case. "The average daily guaranteed flight volume of this year's spring transport will exceed 17000 sorties, an increase of about 13.3% over last year." Wan Xiangdong, chief aeronautical officer of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, said at a press conference on Spring Festival January 9th.

In other words, the supply side is expanding, why is the water spillover? Wanxiang east to the twenty-first Century economic report said, or with the demand side growth too fast, "2020 spring transport civil aviation passenger transport volume will set a new high, is expected to reach 79 million passengers, an increase of about 8.4%." The total passenger traffic volume of the entire spring festival is estimated to be 3 billion.

In January 10th and twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters learned from the civil aviation bureau's news department that there are two kinds of domestic airline fares, one of which has formed competitive routes, and the other is a government guided price. First class and business class tickets have been released and market regulated prices have been implemented. Up to now, the domestic passenger transport volume of the market regulated price accounts for about 80% of the total domestic passenger transport. With the expansion of the marketization of domestic airline fares, the fare level of domestic routes depends largely on the supply and demand of aviation market.

Tickets for Spring Festival increase year by year

As "the world's martial arts, only fast and not broken", the first secret of the experience of grabbing votes is "early start", so many people started booking tickets in the months before the new year. "Fortunately, I bought it early." Merchants finance official Yan Yu said that the ticket that he bought home in the new year was bought in November last year. It was more than two months ahead of schedule. At that time, it was already a full price ticket for economy class. Now the price of air ticket has increased several times.

Not all tickets are cheaper to buy sooner. "Oh, today's ticket price is actually cheaper than I bought a month ago!" Wang Chongren, a staff member of the Tourism Bureau, complained to the economic news reporters in twenty-first Century that he was afraid to buy the tickets for more than a month earlier because he was too expensive for the Spring Festival tickets.

Wang Chongren was born in the northeast, and his family went to Sanya every year for his family's early career in Sanya. Taking into account the bad tickets for the Spring Festival in Sanya, not only to catch up with visiting relatives, but also to have a large number of tourist flows, Wang Chongren started early, and began buying the air tickets for Sanya on New Year's Eve in December 14th and then returning to Beijing on the fifth day of the lunar new year. But he was surprised to find that the fare was not cheap even though he bought the ticket more than a month ago. The favorite Air China only left business class. The price of Beijing fly to Sanya is up to 14000 yuan, and China Southern Airlines is almost the same. Wang Chongren even thought about buying a transit flight home, but Shenzhen's flight to Sanya was more expensive, and the trip cost more than 6000 yuan. In the end, he searched the whole network to find the cheapest shipping company was HNA. The fare of Beijing and Sanya was 6800 yuan, equivalent to 3400 yuan per trip.

Recalling the air ticket prices of Spring Festival in recent years, Wang Chongren regrets that air tickets are becoming more and more expensive nowadays. He vaguely recalled that when the air tickets for the first Spring Festival started early, he could still buy discounted air tickets, but in recent years, he had not had a discount, and even the economy class ticket was not easy to buy. In the past two years, the price of air tickets has obviously increased year by year.

"In recent years, the same year from thirty to the fifth of the year, the round-trip air ticket I bought increased from 4500-5000 yuan to 5500 yuan, and this year it increased to 6800 yuan." Wang Chongren said that Beijing - Sanya in the first two years of the usual full price ticket price was only 2500 yuan, then 3160 yuan, the Spring Festival price seems to have risen again. "I can't afford to go back up again. I can't get back home." Wang Chongren worried that the 6800 yuan fare would allow him to go to Europe and the United States.

In January 8th, the reporter inquired about the price of round-trip flights from Beijing to Haikou and Sanya, and found that, as Wang Chongren said, in addition to a small number of flights with a price of 6677 yuan, a large number of fares were 12 thousand yuan, 15 thousand yuan, 17 thousand yuan, and even 21 thousand yuan fare. Apart from the tight fares of Beijing to Haikou and Sanya, the prices of Shenzhen and Shanghai going to Haikou and Sanya are also tens of thousands of yuan.

Ctrip ticket Department official said, in addition to reunion, tourism new year is becoming a new choice for more and more families. To Sanya and Haikou to avoid cold has become a new trend for people to celebrate the new year. So the air ticket to Hainan before Spring Festival is very intense. If Shanghai starts to fly to Sanya in January 17th, there will be a number of flights that are sold out.

The price of multiple routes rose.

According to Yu Biao, director of the Transport Department of the civil aviation bureau, from the specific routes, this year's spring transport Kunming, Beijing, Chengdu Shanghai, Nanjing Sanya, Hangzhou Sanya, Wenzhou Shanghai, Shanghai - Shanghai and other airline passenger bookings increased rapidly, and seat sales were tight.

Ctrip related responsible person told reporters that the week before the holiday, to Harbin, Zhengzhou, Changsha and other places of the air tickets are relatively tight, most of the hot start time flight economy class only full price tickets. For example, from January 19th onwards, Beijing flew to Harbin, and the economy class ticket was hard to get.

According to the ticket booking data of the elong ticket, the average fare of domestic air tickets before the Spring Festival (excluding taxes and fees, the same below) fluctuated basically within 1000 yuan. The average price of domestic air tickets was 956 yuan a day before the eve of new year's Eve. On the eve of new year's Eve, there was a low price and the average fare was 763 yuan. However, from the beginning of the second year of the Lunar New Year (January 26, 2020), the average price of domestic air tickets rose rapidly, reaching the highest level of Spring Festival transportation of 1227 yuan on the last day of the golden week of January 30th.

Chai Yinghui, general manager of public relations and government affairs department of Yilong, pointed out that, during the Spring Festival, the average price of domestic air tickets has basically been higher than international air tickets. The main reason is that the huge family visiting flow has greatly increased domestic passenger traffic.

Reporters from the OTA database enquiries, this year during the Spring Festival domestic ticket price curve in the direction is similar to last year, two days before New Year's Eve, there is a small price wave peak, on New Year's Eve and spring festival day, there is an obvious trough, the average ticket price peak appears on the last day of the holiday, showing a general "V" trend, the overall price fluctuation is basically the same.

Compared with the previous 2018, the ticket price of domestic air tickets during the Spring Festival is higher than that of the peak season. On the last day of the golden week holiday in 2020, the domestic air tickets fare as high as 1227 yuan, up 65.8% from Ping Feng fares, while the average fare of domestic air tickets increased by 8.8% during the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2018.

In order to verify the above conclusions, the reporter took the price comparison of several popular routes in -2020 in 2017 with Ctrip and elong data Department, and found that the price of each airline rose considerably.

The other side of market reform

The spring festival ticket is so fierce that it is obviously not due to insufficient supply of flights. In fact, the transport capacity of civil aviation in 2020 was the highest in all years.

Wanxiang said that the civil aviation authority allowed domestic airports to moderately increase their protection capacity according to their actual capabilities. Airlines scientifically predicted passenger flows according to market demand, and arranged for overtime, charter flights and temporary operating flights as a whole.

Luo Yong, general manager of the marketing department of the Air China Business Committee, told the economic report twenty-first Century that in order to ensure smooth spring transport, Air China intends to increase its capacity in the Spring Festival of 2020, and plans to invest 431 aircraft capacity, an increase of 1.9% over the same period, and 53974 flights scheduled. The number of new flights increased 3173, an increase of 6.3% over the same period, providing 10 million 860 thousand seats, an increase of 5.8% over the same period.

China Eastern Airlines plans to implement 118 thousand and 900 flights during the Spring Festival, an increase of 6.11% over the same period, of which 6716 flights are increased, providing more than 20 million seats, an increase of 6.88% over the previous year, and a total of 32 billion 900 million km of transportation, representing an increase of 7.83% over the same period.

HNA indicated that it would focus on increasing the capacity of Haikou, Sanya, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other popular cities, as well as Guangzhou's = Xi'an / Sanya / Chengdu, Shenzhen = Sanya / Zhengzhou, and = = 600 / / and so on. The relevant responsible person of Hainan Airlines said that more than 600 classes of overtime were expected, more than 480 passengers were transported, and more than 12 passengers were transported daily.

Wan Xiangdong disclosed that as of January 8th, the competent civil aviation authorities had received 17600 overtime applications from airlines during the Spring Festival, including 14656 in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, 804 in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and 2140 in international routes. He said later airlines will also increase or adjust some flights.

Why is the price of spring flights higher than before? "The main reason for this difference is the earlier spring festival holidays this year, the high overlap of visiting relatives, migrant workers and tourists, the increasing density of passenger traffic and relatively concentrated travel demand." Chai Yinghui said that during the golden week of the Spring Festival, consumers who chose to travel by air have maintained a growth rate of over 8% in recent two years. The rapid growth of demand is the fundamental reason.

Since 2017, the price fluctuation of air tickets has fluctuated sharply, which is also related to the price reform of civil aviation.

The domestic passenger tariff of China's civil aviation has gone through many years of exploration from the government's strict control to gradual deregulation since 1992. In 2004, the national development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration issued the "Civil Aviation domestic air transport pricing reform plan", which has been reformed in many aspects, such as the benchmark fare level, the domestic and foreign sales ticket price, the floating rate of the fare, the preferential regulation of the special groups in the market supervision and so on. Subsequently, the airlines were allowed to implement "market adjustment price" in the first class and business class of the domestic airline in 2010. In 2013 and 2016, the notice issued by the China Civil Aviation Administration, the national development and Reform Commission on improving the price policy of Civil Aviation domestic air passenger transport, and the notice on deepening the reform of the domestic air passenger transport fare of the civil aviation industry were promulgated successively. At the end of 2017, the national development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration issued the notice on further promoting the reform of Civil Aviation domestic passenger transport price, liberalized the pricing power of the branch line, and further relaxed the scope of the market regulated price route.

Earlier, some experts believe that in the Civil Aviation Administration's control of flight increment, tightening time and tight supply capacity, the price control will be relaxed. Once the peak season is reached, the elasticity and profit elasticity of civil aviation ticket will be very large, and ticket prices will increase significantly.

The three increase in Beijing and Shanghai routes has proved this view. From January 1, 2020 onwards, the price of full fare tickets for the Beijing Shanghai route economy class will increase by 10%, which is the third rise in Beijing and Shanghai routes since 2017. After two price increases in June and December last year, air tickets rose from 1240 yuan to 1480 yuan. Now the price of air tickets has risen again, up to 1630 yuan, plus 1680 yuan for building diesel fuel.

Even if the price not increased, compared with weekday big discount, during the Spring Festival, almost all the original prices were restored. Ms. Yi, who needs to return to Enshi from Guangzhou, told the twenty-first Century economic report that because of the serious rise in the price of the Spring Festival, she had to buy a full price ticket of 1350 yuan, while the usual promotion ticket was generally less than 500 yuan, and the flight was not direct, and it would take an hour or so by Wuhan to fly to Enshi again. According to a reporter's investigation, the same flight now has no economy class since January 15th, and there are only a few business class tickets with a fare of 6570 yuan.