Li Yige'S Column, What Kind Of Annual Plan Do Housing Enterprises Need?

Yi Ge Li

The basic work of financial media people is to read financial reports, not only from domestic listed companies, but also from overseas listed companies. The exchange rate and annual report time of different economies are quite different. The quarterly report of our A shares covers January 1st to March 31st, but this time in some exchanges is the four seasons, and some quarterly reports are from December to February.

At home, the date of the earnings report will be different from the actual schedule. The deadline for the report is December 31st, but most enterprises leave until the Spring Festival is the end of the year.

What is the main thing to do from the first working day after new year's day to the Spring Festival holiday? There is no doubt that one of them is project settlement and performance calculation, and the bonus must be sent out before the new year, if any.

Another important task is to draw up the budget for the coming year. It is linked to the annual plan. Take housing enterprises as an example, before the Spring Festival, you have to set several core dishes for the whole year: sales volume, return amount (refund rate), land amount, financing amount, profit margin (profit rate), and delineate the approximate time node. The salary of professional managers is closely tied to these figures.

Insert a sentence here. Wanda may be the oldest enterprise in the annual plan. It began discussions in August and ended in mid December. All sectors from the project to the region to the group, there is a full time game, that is, bargaining, but once the formulation of the plan can not be challenged - you have been lit two times the red light may have to leave.

The annual plan is related to your view of the real estate situation this year. The uncertainty principle applies to the property market in recent two years. The fundamental elements of the real estate are almost impossible to say or predict. But this can not prevent some experts from making predictions for the next year's speeches, nor can they prevent some media from making predictions for the year ahead. Although many people are not sure about it, many bosses still care about it.

Before I told my friends, large housing enterprises, especially the former 10 of the housing enterprises are relatively easy to handle, slow down a little faster, just a few seats for a change, not to be thrown to the 30 place. Small housing companies are not bad at all. They can't afford to sell them to the predators at the right price. The most uncomfortable thing is the medium-sized Housing enterprises, the top 20 are very difficult, too radical, trying to bend overtaking, but take the wrong number of land, it is possible to drop from 30 to 50.

According to my understanding with several housing enterprises leaders, this year's annual plan is still based on stability. The reason is "not too clear." The basic consensus is that although the house was not sold well before, it did not reach that point in 2008. The difference is, if we want to guarantee 6, will the competent authorities turn a blind eye to the deregulation of some cities in disguised form? At least, we do not see this sign at present.

My suggestion to medium sized housing enterprises is to tighten up a bit and maintain the average growth rate of the first 30 of the industry. If we want to be more relaxed, we will maintain the average growth rate of the first 50. On this basis, keep your eyes open. Once the opportunity arises, the window will accelerate immediately.

Opportunity is not a policy opportunity; it is beyond expectation; it refers to regional opportunities. The layout of Housing enterprises should focus on the core urban agglomeration. I personally have repeatedly respected the area, one is the Yangtze River Delta city group, the two is the Pearl River Delta city group. Maybe some people disagree. Speaking of the market performance in 2019, many friends will marvel at the unexpected good performance of the Shenyang property market. However, have you ever thought that before this, a large number of Housing enterprises were here for many years. If you are willing to spend such a time cost, wait.

In the short term (within 5 years), the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the most potential city, with a population of 300-500 cities in the urban area, and a population of 100-300 million in the medium term (5-10 years). The integration process of the Yangtze River Delta will greatly fill the value depressions of the small and medium-sized cities between megalopolis and mega cities within the urban agglomeration.

The same is true of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. From the perspective of the property market, Foshan, Dongguan and Huizhou are the most anticipated growth poles, and Zhuhai and Zhongshan are the second growth poles. The urban areas in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are mainly the old stock market. I accidentally saw a statistics from Locke in Guangzhou. In 2019, there were 33 old village renovation projects in Guangzhou. The largest urban village in Whampoa, the village of Jiulong Town, Kowloon Town, has a total area of 9 million 946 thousand and 600 square meters, which is 4 million 766 thousand and 600 square meters larger than the second gigas Village (5 million 180 thousand square meters). The total investment of the project is 16 billion 400 million yuan, and only 6 billion 600 million yuan for demolition and resettlement.

The transformation of old villages is not only a huge investment, but also a long period of time and a lot of uncontrollable factors. It will take 10 years to complete the transformation of such a large area like Tang village. But not all housing companies are suitable for doing business. They can't move without control. I didn't call the house because of the housing prices. The old renovation project in Shenzhen has not been moved for two years.

Residential real estate development business is still huge, but no matter you admit that you do not recognize the existence of the ceiling, the growth rate is coming down. Therefore, I suggest that more than 200 billion of Housing enterprises should develop new areas earlier and cultivate new revenue growth points. A large number of large housing enterprises have chosen Wen and Kang industries because they have stronger synergy with housing.

The conservation areas of Wen and Kang industries still need to count the two urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. These cities are economically developed and have a high level of consumption. People are willing to spend more money on entertainment and health care. Apart from Panyu, the two largest cities in the Pearl River Delta are located in the Pearl River Delta, one in Zhuhai and one in Qingyuan.

Of course, there are real estate friends do not want to look so far away, only concerned about 2020. Well, I have only one encouraging word: it will not be worse than 2019.