Cotton Prices Continue To Rise

Last week (January 6-10), the date of the signing of the Sino US agreement approached, and the information from the market showed that the two sides were approaching the successful contract step by step, and the anticipation of the cotton futures market was rising. Traditional futures look at anticipation and spot trading. Under the new situation of universal hedging and basic sales procurement, the current linkage has been strengthened, spot trading has been rising and wait-and-see, turnover has been decreasing, cotton yarn trial is rising and confidence is not enough, and small factories are beginning to take a vacation.

At present, the amount of Zheng cotton warehouse receipt is close to 1 million 500 thousand tons, which is 1/4 of this year's output and 1/3 of the current stock market resources. It is both a "ballast stone" of the futures market and an impact on the liquidity of the spot market. Cotton substitute polyester 7000 yuan / ton, viscose 9600 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week rose 100 yuan / ton, under the influence of cotton prices rose, there are signs of stabilization. Last week, the CNCottonB index was 13938 yuan / ton, the week rose 183 yuan / ton, compared with the Zheng cotton futures CF2001 contract, the spot premium was 143 yuan / ton, the week reduced 67 yuan / ton.

Futures. With the signing date of China and the United States approaching, the information released by various channels shows that the two sides are approaching closer to successful contracts. US cotton export sales data are good, and planting area is expected to reduce, favorable factors superposition, accumulation of funds is rising smoothly, domestic and foreign futures continue to rise, and record high. Zheng cotton's main contract CF2005 closed at 14285 yuan / ton on Friday, the week rose 270 yuan / ton, intraday 14380 yuan / ton new high, turnover, positions have increased slightly, the disk is even new high, buy a set of insurance profits, part of the open position, buy 14205 sets of insurance, reduce 7370 hands. Sell 121028 guarantees, increase 33183 hands, the rapid rise of the disk lack of basic support, at any time may be callback, plus the low cost of acquisition, hedging positive. Disk prices rose, a small number of replenishment end of the mill, the transaction reduced, the cycle is only 1272 hands, 54800 less than last week. Registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, the total reached 29445, an increase of 1941, forecast 7623, an increase of 436 last week, slow spot sales, profit margin sales, stimulate the warehouse receipt registration. Registration forecasts are still dominated by intra state warehouses, accounting for 73.2%, with a slight decrease in proportion. Yarn prices can not rise simultaneously with cotton prices, cotton yarn production losses, risk increases, after the road began to holiday, consumption gradually reduced, rumors that China and the United States signed the first phase of the agreement 15 days, the funds may still have the last one pull shipment, technically facing 60 weeks average drag, this week the recall rate is larger.

Us disk: the first phase agreement between China and the United States is about to be signed. The US cotton export data are better, the output is expected to decline, and the profits are coming. ICE's main contract in March closed at 71.29 cents / pound, up 207 points per week, has been rising for 7 consecutive weeks, technically has broken through 60 weeks average line suppression, forward platform consolidation platform forward. On the 15 day, the first stage agreement between China and the United States will be signed, and the profits will continue to rise. The 6 consecutive weekly rise has accumulated a lot of profit making needs to be fulfilled. The Chinese Spring Festival is coming, and the consumption stage will be reduced. Continue to track the progress and content of trade negotiations.

On the spot. Warm winter this year, sales of winter clothing dropped sharply, and the backlog was serious. As the Spring Festival is drawing near, it is urgent for the cotton mill to stock up and return the money. The price of cotton yarn is not up to the mark. The purchase of high priced cotton is bound to be faced with losses and risks. The industrial chain presents a "hot" situation of cotton. Except for a small amount of supplement, we just need to purchase. Generally speaking, price quotas rose with futures, and the price range was different. The small price increase met a small number of rigid demand procurement, and the overall turnover was greatly reduced. After the rise of futures, the expectation of processing enterprises will rise, sales will drop, and quotations will be relatively high. The price is 13600-13800 yuan / ton, the length of the inland Treasury is 28, the strength is 27 or less, the resource price is 14100-14300 yuan / ton, and the strong 27-28 price is 14300-14500 yuan / ton. Customs clearance India cotton 13800-14200 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 15800-16500 yuan / ton, Brazil cotton 13900-14800 yuan / ton, West Africa cotton 14200-14600 yuan / ton.

Acquisition of new cotton. As of January 10th, 955 enterprises in the country reported 4 million 830 thousand tons of public inspection, increased 2 enterprises, 190 thousand tons, 4 million 690 thousand tons of public inspection of 804 enterprises in Xinjiang, 140 thousand tons of public inspection of 151 enterprises in the mainland, and the number of inspection and inspection enterprises in Xinjiang.

Operation suggestion. Near the end of the year, the consumption of the latter road is decreasing, the cotton price is rising rapidly. The price of the gauze has not been able to rise effectively. On the 15 day, the signing of the contract between China and the United States is likely to be in full swing, and the technology is facing 60 week average moving resistance. After the National Day holiday, the CF2005 contract will enter the consolidation of 12500-13500 yuan / ton. The current round has risen from 13300 yuan / ton to 14300 yuan / ton, and the probability of callback is larger. Many can consider the bag for safety. Celebrate the Spring Festival, inventory can be considered good, the new year after the insurance package, ready for delivery. We will continue to follow the progress of Sino US negotiations.