2019 Pure Polyester Yarn Price Trend Review 2020 Will Continue Downward Trend

In 2019, the market price of pure polyester yarn showed a downward trend of "N". In 2019, the price range of pure polyester yarn was 10900-13700 yuan / ton, the fluctuation interval was 2800 yuan / ton, and the price range of pure polyester yarn in 2018 was 13300-16350 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation range was 3050 yuan / ton. Therefore, compared with last year, the price of pure polyester yarn is relatively mild this year, and the running space of pure polyester yarn has also declined. The high price point appeared in March, which was 13700 yuan / ton in the year, and the low price point in the year was 10900 yuan / ton in December.

In the first quarter, due to the existence of the Spring Festival holiday, the concentration of the goods gathered before the festival and the price was slightly warmer. Near the Spring Festival, the textile enterprises focused on cleaning up inventory and collecting the tail money. The market changed little. In the middle of February, the downstream gradually resumed work, and the market price of pure polyester yarn increased slightly. Along with the arrival of the traditional peak season, coupled with strong support from the raw materials, the bullish mentality has promoted the improvement of pure polyester yarn, and the price of pure polyester yarn is getting warmer and warmer. The price rose from 13250 yuan / ton to 13700 yuan / ton in the year.

In the two quarter, after the Qingming Festival, the market gradually entered the off-season, and the downstream demand slowly declined. In addition, the price of raw materials ended sharply, and the market price of pure polyester yarn began to decline as a result of the PX explosion in Taiwan. In the face of bad news in the macro information market, the downstream foreign trade orders were affected, the price of raw polyester staple fiber dropped sharply, the pure polyester yarn market continued to slump, and the inflection point appeared in late June, falling to 11800 yuan / ton. Under the strong support of crude oil prices, the PTA period cargo rose sharply, and polyester staple fiber rebound to boost market confidence, the pure polyester yarn market bottomed out.

In the three quarter, the value of the terminal was shrinking during the traditional off-season. Polyester raw material end PTA overcapacity and the "off-site option" incident affected the next spot spot slump, raw polyester terylene was dragged down by this price, the price fell sharply. Macro information is not clear for a long time, pure polyester yarn market is not good enough, enterprise inventory continues to be high, pure polyester yarn market prices fall into the downturn channel, to recall the previous increase. By the end of September, oil prices rose sharply to support raw materials. In addition, under the background of "Kim Gu" peak season, the fabric orders in the lower reaches were opened, and the pure polyester yarn inventory pressure was effectively relieved, and the market price rose slightly.

Fourth quarter, the external news release positive signals, the national day after the peak season alternate, terminal demand gradually down, good news face under this influence passivation. PTA's new capacity will not be oversupplied in the short term, and the price of polyester staple will continue to drop after the pressure on the warehouse after the festival. With the increasing order of terminal orders and the shrinking market competition, the yarn market has been under the pressure of cotton and viscose yarn to produce pure polyester yarn, and the market price of pure polyester yarn has reached a low of 10900 yuan / ton during the year.

In the later stage, the market of pure polyester yarn is expected to continue downward in 2020. On the one hand, from the current market structure of supply exceeding demand for raw material fundamentals, it is the main reason leading to the continuous weakening of raw material market, and has been transmitted to the terminal. On the other hand, the demand for the poor macroeconomic environment has shrunk. Taking T32S as an example, it is estimated that the average price of pure polyester month is between 11000-11800 yuan / ton, and 3-5 is the traditional peak season for downstream demand of pure polyester yarn, and the expected high price will appear in this period, which is about 11500-12000 yuan / ton. And by the 6-8 month high temperature background, as the downstream demand weakens, the price of T32S will drop to near 10000-11200 yuan / ton, hitting the low price in the year.