Will The Yarn Price Continue To Rise Before The Spring Festival After The Cotton Mill Has Entered The Holiday Mode?

Recently, the rapid rise of yarn has come to an end, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the cotton mills have gradually entered the holiday mode. Most enterprises plan to take a vacation on the 15-20 th of January, and will start about ten at the beginning of the month. Therefore, the yarn is temporarily trapped in the "price free market" situation. Then, how will the yarn run after the Spring Festival? With this problem, the author made some understanding to some manufacturers in Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu. The market is optimistic about the future yarn, but it does not exclude the worries of some enterprises. Reason:

First, upstream raw materials are hot. Since January 2020, the upstream cotton has continued to rise, and the market players are very confident. Zheng cotton sesame blossom high. Since December 26, 2019, Zheng cotton has opened up the curtain, and it has been rising steadily. Data show that in December 26th last year, Zheng cotton main contract CF2005 closed 13415 yuan / ton; as of January 13th this year, the main CF2005 contract closed at 14430 yuan / ton, just more than 10 days time Zheng cotton rose more than 1000 yuan / ton. Zheng cotton raises the upsurge of cotton. Xinjiang cotton base bid and price rise sharply. As of January 13th, the "double 29" hand picked cotton price in the southern Xinjiang reservoir point reached 14000 yuan / ton line (public weight, delivery and ticket), and the gross weight lifting price was about 14400 yuan / ton, up 600-800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. According to the market, by the impact of Sino US trade prospects, cotton is likely to "rise both inside and outside" in the near future, bringing strong cost support to yarn.

Two, the downstream has been "cool"? According to feedback from Gaoyang market in Hebei, most of the local printing and dyeing and grey fabric manufacturers have stopped production and holidays, and sales of products such as grey cloth and towels have been reduced by at least 5. According to feedback from the relevant market participants in the Textile City, most of the weaving factories entered the holiday on 10-15 January, and will start from 10 to fifteen after the Spring Festival. During this period, factories were no longer producing. The orders that have not yet been completed will also be processed after the Spring Festival, but according to the manufacturers, the old delivery period is relatively tight after the Spring Festival. Many weaving factories indicate that according to the current market situation, the operating rate of enterprises in 2 and March is still worrying, and the upgrading of raw materials is very limited. Recently, grey cloth market remained stable all over the country. As of 13 days, a factory in Jiangsu C40S*C40S+40D 110*68 78 "poplin bleaching blank containing tax 7.1 yuan / M factory, to maintain stability.

Three, the yarns will rise or be limited after a year. What is the limiting factor of yarn rise after the year? The author analyzes: first, if the new orders of the downstream grey fabric do not improve obviously, the yarn rise can only be "unstable foundation", and many will fall after the artificial pull up. Secondly, we need to know what is the decisive factor for the rising of raw materials. I believe that since December last year, Zheng cotton rose very strange, it seems to rise overnight. Although there is a good background for Sino US trade, it does not seem to be enough to increase cotton prices in the light of the stage and tortuosity of Sino US trade. A lot of market participants analyzed the possibility of capital speculation, Zheng cotton first rose, and then pulled the new territories cotton basis bid, the price rose, and then support the entire market.

To sum up, we should be cautious about the market after the Spring Festival. It is extremely undesirable to blindly chase up the market or to bet on the market.