China And The US Sign The First Stage Agreement. Foreign Trade Market Receives "Spring Festival Red Envelopes"

Event:

In January 13th, the US Treasury removed China from the list of currency manipulator countries.

January 15th Washington, the White House. Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and the leader of the Sino US comprehensive economic dialogue. Liu He and US President Trump signed the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States. So far, Sino US economic and trade frictions have been phased "stop war". We must take a step towards the final solution.

Liu He and Trump shook hands at the signing ceremony of the agreement.

Since January 2020, stimulated by the good news, the RMB exchange rate has started to soar as if it were on a helicopter. In January 14th, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose 6.87 yuan to a new high for the first time since July last year.

That is to say, if calculated from December 3, 2019, the 28 day has soared by nearly 1900 basis points. If it is calculated from the low point of 7.1854 in September 3rd, the RMB has risen to more than 3000 basis points so far. This is undoubtedly good news for those who travel abroad. But for textile foreign trade people, it seems not so good!

The renminbi is soaring, textile foreign trade people want to weep no tears!

Although most of the mills and dyeing factories have been on holiday, traders are still fighting. The trend of future exchange rate is the key factor affecting their orders and profits. 。

Some experts believe that many factors such as the warming of the trade situation, the improvement of the economic expectation, the recovery of market risk preference and the weakening of the US dollar all support the strong operation of the RMB. So what will be the impact of RMB appreciation on cloth boss?

Generally speaking, Foreign trade enterprises mostly use the US dollar to settle their foreign exchange. When the exchange rate of RMB decreases against the US dollar, it represents a decrease in profits from the original good price. 。 For example, if a textile trade owner and a client offer a successful bid, they will pay 50% dollars for the next one hundred thousand dollar list and pay the remaining 50 thousand dollars when the transaction is completed. At this point, if the RMB appreciation against the US dollar is 6.85 from the original 6.95, then the boss's 50 thousand dollar will shrink, and it will lose 5000 yuan at once.

Therefore, for cloth boss, it is an important factor to earn a good time to collect foreign exchange. Xiaobian once heard a cloth boss advance the order before, the price has already been discussed, the contract has also been confirmed by mail, but because the exchange rate fluctuation is too big, the order is almost no profit, and it can not change the contract price. This part of the price difference can only be eaten by oneself. If the RMB exchange rate fluctuates frequently, it will also lead to difficulty in quotation. So, for cloth boss, exchange rate rise or fall is not a good thing, only exchange rate stability is the situation they want to see. 。

All say that textile people suffer! The most difficult force is the textile trader.

Since 2019, Sino US trade relations have been separated and merged, leading to difficulties for foreign trade traders to take orders. It is understood that this year's foreign trade orders have also shrunk sharply, tens of thousands of meters in the past, tens of thousands of meters underground, now reduced to a few thousand meters. Coupled with the impact of tariffs, many foreign trade companies are deeply hurt by the fact that they dare not take orders. According to relevant statistics, In 2019, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 271 billion 875 million US dollars, down 2.22% from the same period last year.

In 2020, with the signing of the phased agreement, the foreign trade environment will be improved, and many American orders will not be hindered by tariffs. This is undoubtedly a good news for the market, especially for the enterprises with more beauty lists. However, due to the fact that there is too much division and integration, textile people can not be blindly optimistic. The form of textile foreign trade people is still very grim.

afterword

Apart from the uncertainty of Sino US trade relations and the risk of foreign exchange settlement brought by RMB appreciation, China's competitive advantage in product competitiveness is not obvious enough. With the continuous upgrading of raw materials, rents and water and electricity costs, domestic enterprises have lost the advantage of being a machining center. 。 At present, the global textile and garment manufacturing is accelerating from China to Southeast Asia and other places where labor costs are lower. The textile and garment industry, which has always been mainly exported to foreign trade, has been greatly affected. Especially the low and medium end products, the profit is not high, and it has always won by running volume. However, since 2019, the volume of single volume has declined significantly, so that even the most basic profits can not be guaranteed. In the future, textile exports will occupy a place in the world, and I am afraid they will have to go to high-end and high profit fabrics. 。