2019, The Market Is "Chicken Feather". Is 2020 Able To Usher In A Good Start?

Polyester polyester Hing, then chemical fiber industry.

It can not be said that polyester polyester industry plays a decisive role in the entire chemical fiber industry. Polyester polyester production accounts for about 8 of the total output of China's chemical fiber each year, and the largest contribution to the industry's profits.

But in 2019, the whole polyester industry chain has gone through a painful period. Polyester filament as a member of the chemical fiber industry is no exception. In 2019, the market of polyester filament has gone through a trough. The price has reached a new low of three years. The total profit has been greatly reduced, and the stock has kept increasing.

Let's review the market of polyester filament Market in 2019 from the perspective of specific products.

From the price and profit trend of polyester filament products, polyester products in 2019 all suffered heavy losses.

From the perspective of polyester filament POY 150D, the average price of POY products in 2019 was about 7918 yuan / ton. In terms of profits, the average profit of POY products in 2019 was about 222 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of polyester filament DTY 150D, the average price of DTY products in 2019 was about 9550 yuan / ton. In terms of profits, the average profit of DTY products in 2019 was about 154 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of polyester filament FDY 150D, the average price of FDY products in 2019 was about 8370 yuan / ton. In terms of profits, the average profit of FDY products in 2019 was about 274 yuan / ton.

The reasons for the decline of polyester market are different degrees. In addition to the rapid expansion of polyester production capacity and the continuous fluctuation of upstream cost surface, the most important factor is still the shrinking demand for downstream products.

Spring Asia spinning and polyester taffetas are the most conventional products in the downstream, occupying the "half of the market", which can best reflect the current situation of the textile market. In 2017, when the machine was booming, the golden market lasted until 2018. But since the beginning of 2019, the market has begun to go downhill, and the most common fabric of spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta has entered a "blind alley". From "net red" to "rotten cloth", they took less than two years.

The price is shrinking, and the "brothers and sisters" can't fall.

It is said that the price is one point, and the price is the most direct performance of the product value. But the textile market used in 2019 is not very appropriate. Due to the imbalance between market supply and demand, production capacity began to blowout, and the first product was conventional products, while spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta were the most representative ones. It's not worthless, but too much!

As can be seen from the following table, from 2018 to 2019, prices of spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta products have declined to varying degrees, with a drop of over 30%. And the products like spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta belong to the amount of running in itself. The price is not high and the profits are even less. After falling prices, manufacturers even lose money. Especially in the off-season 7 and August, the phenomenon of dumping on the market upset the price law. Many manufacturers were selling at a loss, but they were not sold if you sold them. When the market can't digest so much capacity, stocks begin to pile up.

From the statistical data, the inventory of weaving enterprises in 2019 reached a maximum of 43 days, which was 5 days higher than the maximum stock days in 2018 for 38 days.

Insufficient demand for clothing, cold clothing down in winter

The clothing industry is the final demand side of grey cloth, but in 2019, the recession of the garment industry is also a commonplace problem.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales volume of clothing commodities has increased year by year in the past 2011-2017 years, but the growth rate has slowed down year by year. In 2017, the total retail sales of clothing products reached 1 trillion and 36 billion 540 million yuan, up 1.4% over the same period last year. In 2018, the total retail sales of clothing products in China were 987 billion 40 million yuan, down 4.8% compared with the same period last year, and the retail sales volume of clothing products for the first time showed negative growth. As of the first half of 2019, the retail sales of clothing commodities amounted to 474 billion 970 million yuan.

The reduction of clothing demand also confirms the current situation of fabric and grey fabric market. Especially in 2018 and 2019, it was a warm winter expectation, which greatly reduced the market demand for winter clothes. Spring Asias and polyester taffetas are the most conventional fabrics for winter clothes. With the decline of demand, they are also implicated. This is exacerbated by the decline of spring Asian spinning and polyester taffy prices.

As of the end of 2019, the market has not changed much. One chief executive, who owns 270 looms, said: "what we mainly do is Chun Ya spinning and Tav, and domestic trade and foreign trade are all involved. This spring Asian textile market is too bad, we run, but now the order is basically over, but the machine is still full, we can't just drop it down, the stock is nearly 3 million meters.

Another owner of Feng Feng, the owner of 80 looms and the main taffeta manufacturer, also said: "our small plant has been fully opened by the end of 2019, but its inventory is more than 100 million meters. It's not easy! "

From clothing, we can see the market situation of grey cloth. From grey cloth, we can see the market situation of polyester, and the industrial chain is complementary from bottom to top. In 2019, the market was really bad, and it was no doubt that it was labeled "the worst year of textile market". But with the coming of the Spring Festival, the market has come to an end. Can the market get a good start after a period of training?