When Housing Prices Resume Online, Will The Property Market Spring Come?

"We went to work today, but we work at home." In February 10th, a large housing company in Shenzhen said.

On the same day, another Shanghai housing company employee also dried out the new year's red envelope, indicating that it was officially started.

This is the day when many cities stipulate that work can be resumed. Many housing enterprises start their work in the new year.

Because of the impact of the NCP epidemic, most of the housing sector's return to work is online rather than entity, and sales and construction related to the core of the business can not be carried out.

No sales, no cash flow, downtime means delivery, settlement and a series of process delays, if time dragged on for a long time, this will be a big test for many housing enterprises.

On the day of the commencement of work, the chairman or president of Biguiyuan, Merchants Shekou, agile and Austrian garden, etc., encouraged the staff to cheer up in a letter.

In fact, in the early January, most housing companies had made plans for this year, including land sales and sales targets. But the sudden outbreak makes the future unpredictable.

Outside the letter, the housing enterprises are also showing their worries about the future market and tackling the unknown challenges. There is no doubt that a battle related to the survival of Housing enterprises will start soon after the start of the year.

There is no doubt that the new crown pneumonia has disrupted the housing enterprises early plans, production and operation rhythm. - Gan Jun photo

Alternative selling and getting land

Real estate is probably one of the most industrious industries.

In February 10th, in addition to Hengda's official work in February 17th, the leading housing companies began to work at home, including Wanke, Biguiyuan and THC, which delayed the normal operation to 17 days.

Unlike previous years, people can not return to the office, most of them can only handle related work online at home, such as funds, design, tendering and so on. The new world China, times China and other housing enterprises use online and offline integration, only a small number of employees return to their offices.

The work of Real Estate Company basically focuses on "selling the house". However, affected by the epidemic, the sales offices of hundreds of cities have been closed down, and no specific notice has been given to the opening hours.

"But the real estate marketing people can't sit and do nothing. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate, said most developers were promoting online showrooms, including VR showrooms, video viewing, live broadcasting, etc.

In order to attract people to see the house, financial innovation first launched the "no reason to check out" activities, of which Beijing and southeastern regions are "30 days without reason to check out". The longest designated project in Shanghai area is "50 days without reason to check out".

Coincidentally, the February 9th calendar year also launched the "30 days no reason to check out" activities, online housing can be refunded, and synchronized to promote 30 cities in 21 cities on sale online sales, 24 hours showings.

In this regard, Zhang Dawei believes that no matter when the epidemic, the first wave of developers to rebound, it is best to have no reason to check out for at least a year, otherwise it is estimated that vulnerable home buyers are hard to return to the sales office.

In addition to online sales, housing companies can do other jobs as well as investment, because local governments have begun selling land.

In February 8th, Changsha took the lead in launching the online land transaction platform, and the 32 plots resumed listing. The selling time was from February 25th to February 28th. On the 10 day, Guangdong also issued a circular that 4 land will be sold this week, which are located in Guangzhou, Huizhou and Zhaoqing.

In February 10th, long long real estate won the 1 billion yuan base price for the residential area of Baiyun District in Guangzhou, covering an area of 52 thousand and 400 square meters.

However, taking the place is not so urgent, developers' investment departments are doing more preparations. "At present, we can only do the project's search and reserve, especially in mergers and acquisitions or cooperative projects. Many areas are still closed because of the epidemic. It is impossible to see the past." One developer said.

A real estate fund research institute after the thorough investigation, said that in addition to the government has good communication with the government to take the project or business terms have already talked about good M & A / cooperation projects continue to operate, at present, the land sector will not have too many new strokes to hang up the land, so there will be no obvious new projects in the first quarter.

Zhang Dawei also said that in addition to a few areas still have land transactions, most of the land market is frozen. Overall, most enterprises in the short term dare not intervene in the land market. This gives some enterprises the opportunity to take the land, but the same can be seen if the epidemic situation can be alleviated.

March faces a turning point?

There is no doubt that the new crown pneumonia has disrupted the housing enterprises early plans, production and operation rhythm.

But the developers are not going to concede defeat. Xu Yongjun, chairman of China Merchants Shekou, said in a letter of February 10th that it is necessary to fight a hard battle and run out of the "speed of life and death" in order to achieve the established goal this year.

In 2019, Merchants Shekou sold 220 billion, and this year's target is estimated at around 250 billion.

Mo Bin, President of Biguiyuan, said he is confident that he can face the market this year and firmly believe that he can win the battle against the epidemic. "No spring will not come."

Similarly, in 2019, China's Austrian garden, which made a brilliant performance in 2019, plans to achieve 20% growth in 2020. The sudden outbreak of the epidemic did not seem to disrupt the pace of Austrian garden. Austrian garden President Guo Ziwen said that Austrian garden has made arrangements for funds, sales, cost control and organization reengineering.

However, under the epidemic, the poor performance of the property market in the first quarter is expected. Many industry insiders say that the market downturn in February will continue.

Zhang Dawei said that the overall trend of the real estate market in 2020 is not very meaningful now, so it is very difficult for the market to restore confidence. This is not a simple price cut that will affect the market.

From 2019, sales in 1-2 accounted for 8% of 16 trillion in the whole year. If the epidemic situation could be effectively controlled in 1-2 months, the impact would not be too great.

In March 2019, the property market ushered in a small spring, pushing the first quarter sales of 2 trillion and 700 billion, accounting for about 17% of the whole year. If the epidemic continues to March, or there is no obvious stimulus policy after the outbreak, then 2020 will face a major test for most real estate enterprises, especially non state enterprises.

Zhang Dawei believes that 90% of SMEs will be very uncomfortable in 2020. In particular, enterprises that are not listed in private enterprises and concentrated in several projects will face very large capital chain pressure. Unless large scale policy stimulus is taken, selling shares will inevitably happen.

The aforementioned REITs agency also pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on sales and financing can not be underestimated. At present, developers are worried that the task of taking place in 2020 can not be completed. The epidemic has basically failed to achieve the expected tasks or objectives in the first quarter (including land sales, sales, financing, etc.), and the rest should be compressed in the 3 quarter, and the task is obviously heavier.

"Unless the epidemic situation can be controlled in February, there will be only a small number of new cases in the small area, and the superimposed stimulus policy will affect the real estate industry far more than the catering industry." Zhang Dawei said.

Most of the housing companies have a large number of traditional financing habits, and many housing companies have carried out a wave of offshore financing before and after the Spring Festival in 2020. If the epidemic can be basically alleviated in February, the pressure of most housing enterprises' capital chain is relatively controllable.

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