Outside Of The Epidemic: China'S Manufacturing Is Entering Life And Death Rate.

The new crown pneumonia is still raging, and we hope to see the platform inflection point still need to wait. At the same time, there is tremendous pressure to resume work everywhere, and there is a clear contradiction between strict control measures against epidemic spread and control measures. This also means that China's manufacturing is entering the speed of life and death. And this loss is spreading all over the world, and the industry in the world is also in a state of anxiety.

At present, most of the people in the country can only stay at home. All eyes and energy seem to focus on every detail of the epidemic. However, there are still many emergencies to deal with in the manufacturing industry. It is suggested that the "temporary War Industrial command" should be set up quickly and divided into different theater areas with different themes. Each of them should be in charge of joint defense, mobilize the high ranking people in the house, and open up the second battlefields of the epidemic prevention with brains and wisdom, and fight the war of defense made in China in 2020.

Resumption: Mask battle

Return to work! Return to work! Return to work! Returning to work is the first hurdle for China to create speed of life and death.

Mask is the first hurdle. At present, the small respirator can be said to be the simplest and most effective protective product. Preventing the spread of droplets is an important precaution for staff. This is the first thing that an entrepreneur should consider.

Faced with the epidemic, the idea of big factories is different. The mask is in short supply. The first industrial wealth Federation of China's industrial Internet has introduced the mask production line for the first time in the Longhua Park of Foxconn group. The trial production has been successfully implemented on the two days and is currently being applied for product qualification certification. The industrial Fu Lian has brought into full play the super flexibility of Foxconn's big manufacturing supply chain. With the ability of production management, market collaboration, and technology output, it can directly open up the whole industrial chain of raw material procurement, equipment manufacturing and product production, and directly produce medical masks. By the end of February, it can reach 2 million Nissan, and the million employees of Hon Hai group can be self-sufficient and can support the outside. No wonder Foxconn promised that Apple's production line could be resumed normally in February 10th. This is not an instinctive state of emergency. This is the meticulous mind of a super manufacturing factory. It's worth learning.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, we can only hurry to stock up. Now, the most important measures for self-protection are to ask the supplier to resume work by blasting the phone, and the other is to phone around for help. This is the most basic preparation for resuming work. If you are looking forward to resuming work at home instead of doing that, the entrepreneur is a bit too careless.

It is said that the industrial Internet is the best position for resource allocation. At the moment, it is also obvious whether the industrial Internet platform can help the small and medium-sized enterprises to complete the rapid start and expansion of the mask production line in a state of emergency.

International supply chain defense

As the world's most important factory of the world's industrial chain, there will be huge chaos in China's global supply chain. This situation is already showing signs that China's supply chain can not run smoothly, resulting in international production lines disconnected.

The interruption of supply of spare parts in China caused by the virus epidemic has stopped all the Korean production lines, including Ulsan, statewide and Asan factories, and is expected to remain in production until next week. And this time also depends on China's attitude towards resumption of production. A seemingly low-level mistake in the production of modern cars is the inability to produce due to the depletion of wiring harness. However, due to the installation of different wiring harnesses in different vehicles, and wiring harness is a third piece of spare parts in a car, manufacturers can not accumulate large quantities of the spare parts inventory. After the resumption of work in China, the existing stock was exhausted, and suppliers in South Korea and Southeast Asia could not support temporarily. The three superposition resulted in modern production being suspended.

This is not an isolated case. KIA Korea also encountered similar problems, it adopted the way is to reduce production this week, keep the production line continue to start. Honda and Daikin Industries, which own factories in Wuhan, have decided to change the factory back to 14 days later. This will seriously affect Honda's car production in Guangzhou. If the extension of the resumption extends further to Hubei Province, the huge supply chain will spread outward.

Sharks are suffering from big sharks. Small fish also have tears from small fish. According to the economic observer, a factory engaged in precision machining of bearings and gears in St Petersburg is now anxiously awaiting the resumption of domestic work. The company needs thirty domestic bearings and gear suppliers, and is distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Liaoning and Henan. However, no one has started yet. According to the current trend of strict prevention of epidemic situation in various provinces and municipalities, it is very optimistic to start work within half a month. Anxiously waiting for the resumption of work, there is another worry, that is, fear of the Irish classic tragedies "waiting for Godot", the waiting will never come again. The efficiency of these factories is not good enough, the profits are very low, and it is easy to sink into the water and never float again. If these factories are unable to withstand, then the situation that this enterprise can't easily get out of is very mysterious.

On the other side of the factory, we can see many industrialists in Suzhou, Wuxi and other places have already entered factories to prepare for production, but they have to wait anxiously for workers to be on duty. At present, although the epidemic situation is different in different places, it seems that many places have adopted a way to prevent death. Is there any overreaction and systematic argumentation is needed. China's supply chain is embedded in the world. If this piece is loose, and the world generates spare bases, the damage will be impossible to recover. Hyundai motor is launching an emergency approach to expand the scale of procurement in the domestic and Southeast Asian countries.

The loosening of the supply chain in China is what Trump dreams of. Even if some manufacturing industries do not move back to the US, it is best to leave China. Last week, US Secretary of Commerce Ross announced in an interview with Fox television that the epidemic will help to make the United States return to the United States. When foreign companies assess the supply chain in China, it is hard not to notice this risk. One of the most important commitments of President Trump's campaign is to bring employment back to the United States. The commerce minister believes that the outbreak of a deadly new type of coronavirus in Wuhan will help the president fulfill this commitment. Disaster comes, human nature presents. Even the US CNN feels that such a stance is unimpressive at the moment, but his undisguised gesture is also a great truth. The truth is hard to follow, and the following ones need to be prepared.

Although the current epidemic is changing, the longer stabbing pain comes from the fragmented distribution of global supply chains to China.

Science and technology coping strategy

This is a battle that is almost alone in China. The international situation is still complex. Besides manufacturing, the bad news still exists.

Many people are optimistic that the first stage of the trade war is good news. In fact, this is just a time for both sides to need a temporary truce. It can be said that the trade war is just a temporary fever, and will come back at any time, and the science and technology war is still fierce and fierce. Because it is directly facing the enterprise, it is more dangerous.

At present, the United States is studying new ways to contain HUAWEI. Reuters reported on February 5th that the US government plans to meet at the end of February to discuss further restrictions on supply to China and eliminate the differences between the government and HUAWEI. At the same time, the US alternative program is also in full swing. The US government is working with Microsoft, DELL and AT&T to develop 5G products instead of HUAWEI. In the past, Microsoft and DELL did not develop 5G infrastructure hardware as HUAWEI did, but mainly developed general engineering standards to allow 5G software developers to complete development on 5G hardware. Now the United States has begun to "force the whole nation" to encircle and suppress HUAWEI, and technology has also been sinking into the core foundation of HUAWEI. What is even more dangerous is that the US Department of commerce is deploying the revision of the long arm jurisdiction principle, which will reduce the control range from 25% of the US technology to 10%. Once implemented, it means that a large number of Japanese and Korean spare parts will not be able to supply HUAWEI.

In 2019, as an alternative to U.S. components, HUAWEI purchased more than twenty billion dollars in Korean and Japanese components, an increase of more than 50%. However, if 10% restrictions are imposed, many key parts will be affected, which will not be able to supply HUAWEI. The more crucial step is TSMC. HUAWEI is one of the most important customers of TSMC, accounting for 10% of TSMC's revenues. However, orders from the United States account for 70% of TSMC. If TSMC fails to supply, it will be totally unbearable for HUAWEI to sell. At that time, HUAWEI was really facing difficulties. Think of it, a group of Americans holding various magnifying glasses and microscope under the corner, looking for loopholes around the huge wall of HUAWEI, waiting for a breakthrough. In 2019, HUAWEI withstood the first heavy artillery, and will face another more dangerous battle in 2020.

At this point, the spirit of global division of labor has disappeared. For example, Hikvision, Dahua, Dajiang and other entities on the list of excellent manufacturing enterprises need to have a state power to support joint defense.

Contract certification for force majeure warfare

Why do many enterprises rush to return to work, some want to rush to do odd jobs, others do because of backlog of orders years ago? If we fail to deliver the goods on time, we will have enormous financial responsibilities and even factories will go bankrupt. Therefore, even if the government has a ban on work orders, there are still business owners who risk returning to work. In Tongzhou, Nantong, some people had been detained by the police station because it violated the provisions of Jiangsu province.

In order to prevent the spread of the virus, provinces and autonomous regions in mainland China, through the provincial websites and other clear areas such as the closure of at least 80% of the area. If the customer fails to make the order on time, the customer will not accept it; if the driver fails to pay the bill, the police station will not accept it. Under such circumstances, all kinds of supporting services need to be supported. In the meantime, it is urgent to start the "force majeure" certification channel for order contracts, and establish rapid certification services for various enterprises.

The outbreak of the new coronavirus, which is unpredictable, unavoidable and insurmountable, is clearly an event of force majeure. If it causes the manufacturer to fail to perform the contract or perform the contract on time, it will obviously constitute an act of force majeure. At present, the China Council for the promotion of international trade has issued a notice, which can issue a force majeure factual proof and adopt an online authentication platform. This is worth the international trade enterprise to apply for. And domestic certification and related legal relief should start at the same time. Of course, even this, small and medium enterprises with little profit and lack of discourse power may not be able to afford it. But we must set up a fast lane for small and medium-sized enterprises, reduce one point loss and reduce one point.

Channel war of international communication

Wuhan is regarded by many Chinese as an epidemic area, and many countries regard China as an epidemic area. The irrational way of restricting mobility began to heat up rapidly. First, the United States began to evacuate overseas Chinese from Wuhan. Then many airlines in Britain, Germany, Finland and Italy also suspended a large number of Chinese flights. A huge problem behind this is the emergence of international panic and the interruption of business dealings.

China does not move, the clock stops. Swatch Swatch, the world's largest watchmaker, also has new moves due to China's epidemic. Despite the fact that there is no confirmed case in Switzerland, Swatch is worried about the new crown virus. Yesterday, Swatch group decided to cancel the Time to Move international watch exhibition and new product conference held in Zurich at the end of the year. Swatch group includes 7 top luxury watch brands, including Baoji, Bao Po, OMEGA, and other 18 brands such as Longines Tissot. Many of these buyers are from China. Now that the epidemic is too serious for China to go, it is also one of the main reasons for the cancellation of the clock.

More importantly, in the case of slow recovery in China, Chinese enterprises also need to start international capacity as soon as possible, expand their manufacturing capabilities abroad, and also participate in international exhibitions and academic exchanges. At present, China needs to find a green channel for this purpose, and at the same time, provide healthy credit support for individuals. As soon as possible, a new visa system and Countermeasures for international business communication can enable entrepreneurs to have a health notary and confirm that they are free from infection, so that they can freely enter and leave the country.

Large scale virtual production deduction

Although the director of Health Bureau has been removed from office in Dali, Yunnan, although the Secretary of the Health Bureau has been removed from office, it also reflects the disorderly coordination of large quantities of goods between the huge countries. Since masks are strategic materials, they need to enter combat readiness management. The deployment of masks can be divided into three levels. The first level is in the hardest hit areas of Wuhan and Hubei; the second level is in hospitals of all provinces and municipalities; the third level is reworking; the fourth level is civilian. This requires a complete set of statistics and management mechanisms.

But at the same time, the temporary transfer of production and the sudden transfer of production also began to appear. At present, all parts of the medical protective products line are being launched quickly. Even Shanghai GM Wuling is producing masks. A joint supplier of automobile factories in Liuzhou produces masks. Build ten production lines, and expect to produce 1 million 700 thousand masks per day. The car manufacturers unexpectedly changed the line to start the high-speed production engine. Civilian capabilities are rapidly changing to wartime capabilities.

Recently, Yanan has announced that in response to the request of the Xinyi municipal government for the production level of 300 thousand health care respirators, it has started to invest 50 million to start factories. However, up to now, the company has no mask production business, and has not yet obtained the qualification of mask production license.

The potential productivity of Chinese masks is 20 million per day, and the estimated starting point is around 50%. And the new capacity comes in various ways. The problem now is that there is a shortage of masks, but the shortage is also a mystery. The mystery must be revealed and not difficult. As long as the whole country is playing chess, the mathematical formula is not difficult to calculate.

First of all, we need to start with dosage. In the early days, there was a very chaotic situation in the material allocation in Wuhan. Many products arrived in Wuhan, but they could not be sent to the first tier hospitals in time. Now, with the entry of professional logistics companies such as Kyushu, this situation has greatly improved. This means that information can completely track real-time data on the scene.

Data in front, direction behind. In the era of mass production and high speed, once the huge machine of industrialization starts, it is necessary to know when the Pentium machine needs to stop. This requires a set of pre metering.

Entrepreneurs who undergo rigorous business training generally learn the classic "beer game" of management, which explains why a small change in the volume of beer in the community convenience stores can lead to catastrophic overstocking. Now, we need to rely on intelligence (in fact, reliable software) to prevent large production of respirators. The excess of respirators is inevitable during the gradual fading of the epidemic. But the huge surplus of products and huge waste of resources are the most intolerable mistakes in our current big data era. It should not depend on the instinct and intelligence of an entrepreneur to decide when to stop the machine.

A data insight based on joint defense is waiting to start. It is necessary to count the use of respirators as soon as possible. Quickly start from the source of spare parts, capacity, transportation, warehouses, on-site full speed tracking. On this basis, the dynamic statistical models of masks should be made, and even daily released to further simulate the production capacity and dynamically adjust the production of mask. As for those discarded masks, such a huge amount, how to carry out reasonable recycling, it can also be considered ahead of schedule. From raw materials to manufacturing, from circulation to recycling, it can be managed by the industrial Internet platform. Unlike normal times, the preparation period can also play a very good role in production monitoring. If it is done, this is the best starting point for the next step to restore China's industrial system and gradually form a chess game in China.

Virtual production room: productivity recovery

There is no doubt that after the outbreak, China will produce retaliatory production capacity. The curves made in China show a trend of first low, high and fan-shaped diffusion. At that time, all machines will start at full speed, all factories will find people everywhere, and all logistics will be full of running. Then, what will happen to the new round of raw materials and components competing for employees? What is the order of recovery after China's manufacturing of such a huge industrial system?

For a province and an industrial cluster, this is a situation that needs to be calculated ahead of schedule.

Take Henan as an example, the three major industries of Henan's manufacturing industry are equipment manufacturing, food manufacturing and electronic industry. Henan's equipment manufacturing industry is the fifth in the whole country. In 2017, the main business income of Henan machinery manufacturing enterprises was close to 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan. The more famous enterprises were Zhengzhou Yutong, XJ Group (more than ten billion power equipment), and Ping Gao, Luoyang one tractor, Luoyang Zhongxin heavy industry, Weihua crane group and so on. In addition to equipment manufacturing, Henan's food manufacturing industry is also competitive, and has developed into the largest meat, convenience food, condiment and quick-frozen food processing and processing base in the country. Quick-frozen rice noodles accounted for more than 70% of the country's total output, and instant noodles, biscuits, wheat flour and monosodium glutamate accounted for more than 1/4 of the country's total.

The first wave of China's economic losses is tourism, film and catering. The 7 day of the Spring Festival is expected to lose over one trillion yuan. After the damage to the catering industry, the second wave is the food and oil processing industry. The third wave will be equipment manufacturing and raw materials. So what is the impact of these three wave shocks on Henan's manufacturing industry? How to lay out the current production capacity? What is the order of productivity recovery after the epidemic has subsided? No one can answer without calculation and planning.

Now we need to quickly establish the "rapid production of big data system". First, the production simulation for industrial clusters, which is very important for the orderly and high-speed production of a region. Since we can not produce at once, we should make the best posture and do well in the production simulation after the disaster.

On the other hand, it requires small and medium-sized enterprises to provide capacity simulation services. At present, the panic of small and medium-sized enterprises is one of fear of losing orders, the two is the fear that production will not keep up with orders. However, how to do the production scheduling and how to bring the best match between machine, human and raw materials into play has exceeded the capability of many small and medium-sized enterprises. All they touch is a small part of the elephant. Therefore, it is necessary to have a service platform for small and medium-sized enterprises to simulate the order production. These require software to help these decision makers.

Once the big machine of the manufacturing industry starts, it will cause three major needs: first, personnel demand, two is raw material rush to purchase, and three is logistics linkage. The demand for raw materials is at least in grid statistics. Take the city and county as the unit, carry out the raw material deduction, prevent the panic and disorder movement of raw materials. According to the order of supply chain recovery, the intensity and distribution area of material mobilization can be calculated, and a virtual logistics military room will be established to simulate the logistics flow in the coming months.

These simulations are not difficult to do with input data. The daily infection model and epidemic data simulation and prediction of the Institute of intelligent manufacturing technology of the North aeronautics Institute of mechanical engineering should be competent for some of this work.

This is not a planned economy. But through the way of modeling and simulation, we can fully understand the plan ahead of time. The application of digital technology in manufacturing industry is also an important link in simulation decision and operations calculation.

Notes

Epidemic situation should not be panic and war situation can not wait. At present, the most indispensable part is the manpower, the master has a lot of time in the folk, and the most missing is organization and overall thinking. Only by organizing well and mobilizing a large number of bystanders' intelligence and knowledge surplus through the "war epidemic temporary industrial command", we can use digital means to do a good job in virtual production and virtual logistics training, and start the supply chain attack and defense in China.

China is now at the same time and needs multiple threads to overcome the panic caused by the sudden attack of the new crown pneumonia. We can not panic in the fear of the epidemic, nor can we paralyze our minds in waiting for the epidemic. Now move immediately. Every day and every hour is very important to China's manufacturing. Let the simulation and deduction of war situation, let digital flow instead of material flow and stream of people, the first to run.

This is the defending war made in China by 2020, and also the speed of life and death made in China.

Author brief introduction

Lin Xueping: the founder of Nanshan Industrial academy, general manager of Beijing Lian Xin power consulting company.

Review: Huang Disheng, aviation manufacturing and information technology experts.