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PTA: Downstream Demand Sluggish PTA Passive Down, Price Reduction

2020/2/13 15:13:00 2

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During the Spring Festival, affected by public health emergencies, business holidays across the country were extended, especially when the downstream polyester enterprises were postponed until February 17th, and the logistics market was also restricted. The PTA market was also damaged. The PTA enterprises' price cut and negative rhythm emerged one after another.

Downstream polyester enterprises to resume work again postponed

Due to the impact of public health emergencies, many domestic Spring Festival holidays were extended, and the polyester market and terminal factories continued to postpone the resumption of work. During the Spring Festival, the polyester enterprises with stop stop actions were added. Because of this incident, and with the accumulation of polyester factories in the Spring Festival holiday, the accumulations of ester factories resumed again. As of February 11th, the starting load of polyester industry was 58.74%, down 12.86 percentage points from January 23rd. Among them, the operation rate of polyester filament industry dropped to 60.89%, the total operating rate of polyester staple fiber (including hollow) decreased to 43.88%, the polyester chip operation rate dropped to 76%, and the polyester bottle piece started down to 67.17%.

Table 12020 maintenance plan for polyester enterprises before and after Spring Festival

factory	Involving capacity (10000 tons / year)	repair time	Estimated restart time	Products involved
Jiangyin Chenggao	Sixty	Early November	After the Spring Festival	PET bottle flakes
Jiangyin Three lane	Forty	Gradual reduction in production in November 13th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Filament and bottle flakes
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Twenty-four	A decrease of 20% in November 13th.	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Filament and slice
Wuxi Huaya	Three point five	11 in the first ten days of a month	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Luoyang Shihua	Five	November 25th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Fujian mountain force	Twenty	December 1st	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
New Feng Ming	Sixty-five	From December 5th onwards	Delayed restart	Polyester filament
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Forty	December 11th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Ningbo Da wo	Twenty-five	December 20th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Anji Huayi	Eighteen	December 31st	February 10th	Filament and staple fiber
Fujian Bai Hong	Twenty	January 1st	Estimated overhaul for 1 months.	Polyester filament
Fujian Jinxing	Thirty	January 2nd	It has been restarted near January 27th.	Filament and staple fiber
Xiaoshan Lian Da	Four point five	January 2nd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Ningbo Quan di	Twenty-five	Early January	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Filament and staple fiber
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Forty	January 4th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Haixin, Suqian	Fifty	January 5th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Taicang Shen Jiu	Forty	January 8th	Delayed restart, plan 200 thousand tons / year device restart in February 15th	Polyester filament
Shaoxing Jin Xin	Twenty	January 8th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
New Feng Ming	Thirty	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Changshu Heng Yi	Eighteen	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Fifteen	January 10th	Delayed restart	Polyester filament
Ningbo Jinsheng	Ten	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Ningbo Huaxing	Twenty	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Ningbo Zhuo Cheng	Seven point two	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Wu Jiangxinmin	Ten	January 10th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Twenty-five	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Shaoxing No. 1 Factory	Ten	January 10th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Filament and staple fiber
Fujian latitude and longitude	Twenty-five	January 11th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Jiangsu Hongtai	Twenty-five	January 12th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Fujian latitude and longitude	Twenty	January 13th	February 10th	Polyester staple fiber
Wujiang Eagle Xiang	Twenty	January 13th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Wu Jiangxinmin	Twenty	January 13th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Yangzhou	Twenty-five	January 15th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester staple fiber
Fujian Jing Lian	Twenty	January 15th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Ningbo Dafa	Twenty-two	January 16th	Delayed restart is expected to restart after February 20th.	Polyester staple fiber
Zhejiang Jiabao	Forty	January 15th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Filament and slice
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Twenty-one	January 16th	January 31st	Polyester filament
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Ten	January 17th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Jiangyin Changsheng	Ten	January 15th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Hubei green	Twenty-five	January 17th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Slicing and staple fiber
Jiangyin three lane	Forty	January 17th	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester staple fiber
Suzhou Jiangnan	Forty	January 18th	February 17th	Polyester staple fiber
Jiangyin Huahong	Forty	January 22nd	It is expected to restart near February 12th.	Polyester staple fiber
Zhejiang Yu Fu	Twenty	January 20th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester industrial yarn
Wuxi	Twenty	January 18th	Estimated overhaul for 1 months.	PET chip
Wuxi Huaya	Thirty	January 22nd	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Eight	January 23rd	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.	Polyester filament
Jiangyin Xiangyang	Thirteen	January 23rd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Tongxiang No. 1 Factory	One hundred and twenty-six	Cut production in January 27th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Jiangyin three lane	Twenty	January 28th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Yizheng chemical fibre	Sixty-seven	January 29th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Staple fiber, chips, bottle flakes
Anyang Chemical	Fifteen	January 31st	Restart time is not yet fixed.	PET bottle flakes
Changzhou Huarun	Thirty	January 31st	Restart time is not yet fixed.	PET bottle flakes
Weifang Warburg	Ten	January 31st	The end of February	Polyester filament
Jinzhai new nylon	Ten	February 1st	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Staple fiber and slicing
Chuzhou Anxing	Five	February 1st	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Twenty	February 2nd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Kaiser, Hangzhou	Forty	February 2nd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Filament and slice
New materials from Southeast China	Thirty	February 2nd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Tong Kun Heng Tong	Forty	February 1st	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Suqian Yida	Twenty	February 2nd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Tianlong new material	Twenty-five	February 2nd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Taicang Zhen Hui	Twenty	February 3rd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Fifty	February 3rd	The end of February	Polyester filament
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Fifteen	February 3rd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Fujian Bai Hong	Twenty-five	February 3rd	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Jiangsu excellent color	Four point four	February 4th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Fujian nylon	Twenty	February 4th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Fujian nylon	Twenty	February 6th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Xiaoshan Lian Da	Thirteen point five	February 6th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Jiangsu Baosheng	Seven point five	February 7th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	PET bottle flakes
Shanghai far spinning	Ten	February 7th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	PET bottle flakes
Huaxi chemical fibre	Eleven point five	February 9th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Six	February 10th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester filament
Yizheng chemical fibre	Twenty-three	February 11th	Restart time is not yet fixed.	Polyester staple fiber

PTA supply side passive reduction and production reduction

　　 Figure 1 PTA market price and operating rate

PTA began to maintain its high level until January 23rd. The PTA operating rate in January 23rd was 89.98%, and the operating rate at the end of January reached 91.87%, and the PTA utilization rate was adjusted to 82.33% as of February 11th. But after the Spring Festival holiday, the PTA device changed significantly. In terms of supply, influenced by the high inventory and low demand of enterprises, many PTA enterprises began to lose weight from the previous week. Among them, Ningbo's Taiwan 1 million 200 thousand tons reduced load to 8, three Lane 1 million 200 thousand tons to 9, Ningbo Liwan 700 thousand tons to 9, Hengli petrochemical Line 4 dropped to 5 percent, Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons load reduced to 6, and Peng Wei Petrochemical 900 thousand tons to 7 or so. PTA operating rate dropped 7.15 percentage points before the holiday. From the price point of view, by the year February 11th, the price of PTA was 4310 yuan / ton, which was 9.07% lower than that of a year ago. Processing fees also declined from 633 yuan in January 13th to 432 yuan, down 31.75%. Many of the new installations are expected to rise in the second half of 2020, and the old ones will be phased out. After some old devices are stopped, restarting is more difficult. From the actual supply and demand, the old PTA device is passively early in the parking and lowering state because of the cost of processing costs. And do not rule out the late stage of enterprises to join the ranks of the negative.

　　 Fig. 2 list of recent changes in PTA installations

Enterprise name	Capacity (10000 tons)	Device variation	Recovery plan
Jialong Petrochemical Company	Sixty	Parking inspection in August 2, 2019	undetermined
Yangzi Petrochemical	Thirty-five	Parking inspection in December 13, 2019	undetermined
Yanda Shanda	Two hundred and twenty-five	December 29, 2019 overhaul	January 27, 2020
Sichuan Shengda	One hundred	Parking inspection in December 29, 2019	February 18, 2020
Fuhai creation	Four hundred and fifty	In January 11, 2020, the load was 9 in February 9th and 6 in February 9th.	undetermined
Xinjiang China and Thailand	One hundred and twenty	January 3, 2020 load of 7	undetermined
Luoyang petrochemical	Thirty-two point five	January 17, 2020 load of 7	undetermined
Hua Bin petrochemical	One hundred and forty	Parking inspection in January 27, 2020	February 27th
Ningbo Yisheng	Sixty-five	January 30, 2020 overhaul	undetermined
Ningbo Taiwan	One hundred and twenty	February 1, 2020 down 8	undetermined
Jiangyin Han Bang	Seventy	February 3, 2020	undetermined
Ya Dong petrochemical	Seventy-five	February 3, 2020	February 5, 2020
Yizheng chemical fibre	Thirty-five	Parking in February 5, 2020	undetermined
Three lane	One hundred and twenty	It dropped to 9 in February 7, 2020.	undetermined
Hengli Petrochemical 4	Two hundred and fifty	It dropped to 5 in February 9, 2020.	undetermined
Fossilization	Ninety	It dropped to 7 in February 9, 2020.	undetermined
Ningbo Liwan	Seventy	It dropped to 9 in February 8, 2020.	undetermined

At present, PTA enterprise needs and inventory pressure is too great. In January, PTA social inventory reached 2 million tons high, even if downstream polyester and terminal enterprises started to resume, it will take some time to digest. What's more, the increase in PTA capacity at the end of 2019 would make the market more worried. In addition to this public health incident, it may take time to recover later. In 2020, the new capacity of PTA was up to 16 million 100 thousand tons, which removed 1 million 200 thousand tons of Xinjiang Zhongtai and the 2 million 500 thousand phase of Hengli Petrochemical four phase which had been put into operation. If the installation was put into operation on schedule, PTA still had 12 million 400 thousand tons of capacity to be put into operation.

PTA Market Forecast:

The stock of polyester plant has been greatly accumulated, and the operation of reducing and stopping production is obvious. The new reduction and stopping polyester device is numerous, more capacity is postponed, and the demand side is broken. The downstream weaving department's capacity decline is more obvious. At present, PTA spot stock has risen sharply, but polyester recycling and downstream orders in the middle and late stages will still boost its rally. In the short term, the possibility of PTA interval oscillation is large, and the market continues to go down relatively limited. Later attention should be paid to downstream polyester and downstream weaving process.