Industrial Chain Reemployment Delayed Effect: Some Pet Factories Have Exceeded 20 Days Inventory, PTA Social Inventory Or Will Exceed 2 Million Tons!

With the initial control of the epidemic, the focus of the policy has shifted to the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of production. The focus of the market has gradually returned to the short and medium term effects of the epidemic. The economic data in January are less affected by the epidemic situation, and the specific impact will wait until the 1 quarter. Reemployment is a traceable basic indicator; reemployment means a decline in consumer demand in some industries, such as telecommuting and online entertainment, as well as rising consumer demand in some industries, such as protective equipment and industrial raw materials.

Although most enterprises choose to return to work in February 10th, the resumption of work is only the starting point for the gradual resumption of economic activities.

　　 First, from the data of the National Spring Festival transport. At present, the return rate of the returning workers may be only 20%-30%. From the Spring Festival to the new year's Eve (January 10th -1 24), the national railways, roads, waterways and civil aviation passengers sent 1 billion 140 million passengers. From January 1 to nineteen (January 25th -2 12), a total of 258 million passengers were sent. According to this, it is estimated that the return time of the current Spring Festival returning personnel is 22.6%.

　 Second, there has been no sign of accelerated return in the near future. The progress of the return from 5 to nineteen in the new year is nearly linear, increasing by about 1% a day. Even when the deadline for the extension of the holiday stipulated by the State Council on February 3rd and the deadline for the holidays in most places on February 9th, there is no obvious increase in the progress of the return. As a comparison, 2019 Spring Festival to new year's Eve (January 21st -2 4 days) sent a total of 1 billion 120 million passengers, from January 1 to nineteen (February 5th -2 22) sent a total of 1 billion 450 million passengers, after the return of the festival has basically ended.

　　 ? ? Third, return does not mean immediate recovery. The incubation period of the new crown virus can be up to 14 days, so it will take about two weeks to observe the work from the return to the resumption of work. Except for telecommuting, this means that the impact of the reemployment delay will last until the first half of March according to the current return schedule, and the recovery is not very fast at present. This result is consistent with the following indicators of industrial production and inventory.

In line with the current epidemic situation, the state's unified command, joint defense and joint control, and giving full play to the advantages of the government in concentrating its efforts on major events, we can positively predict that the epidemic situation can end in two to three months in some areas except Wuhan and other countries.

Under such circumstances, 2 and March had the most serious impact on polyester industry chain, and gradually recovered in April. Optimism is expected to become normal after May.

And from the automation level of polyester industry chain, the upstream and downstream are different. The upstream is mostly large-scale refinery and chemical equipment, the higher the degree of automation, the lower reaches are labor intensive industries.

The more power we need to move downstream, the greater the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic.

　　 Influence on downstream weaving It is mainly for workers to resume work and loom load increase. After the Spring Festival, there are difficulties in recruiting workers in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival. This year, because of the need for epidemic prevention and control, the recruitment of downstream weaving enterprises will be more difficult. At the same time, there is also a certain impact on logistics, which makes the downstream weaving industry lack of raw materials to transport, and the embarrassing situation that products can not be transported will need to resume in time.

　　 Influence on polyester The pressure is mainly on inventory and cash flow. The stock pressure of the polyester factory which has been shut down late before the Spring Festival is becoming more and more prominent. The stock of the polyester factory with large inventory has exceeded 20 days, and the factory inventory with earlier production is still near 10 days. By January 30th, the stock days of polyester staple fiber are 4.96 days, the DTY stock is 24 days, and the FDY stock is 17 days.

By February 13th, PET staple stocks rose 8.64 days, DTY stocks rose 9 days, and FDY inventories rose 8.5 days. During the epidemic, logistics is blocked, and downstream weaving production is slower. Stock pressure of polyester factories will increase. It is estimated that polyester stocks will break through the historical high level. The pressure of stock and cash flow will continue to increase in polyester factories, forcing polyester factories to cut down production continuously.

　　 The impact on PTA. With the increase in production and production of polyester factories, and the obstruction of logistics and the decline of freight efficiency, PTA consumption has been suppressed. And before the Spring Festival, there were 2 million 500 thousand tons of Hengli petrochemical and 1 million 200 thousand tons of Sino Thai Petrochemical plant put into operation, and the load of the PTA device reached more than 90%, and PTA production is expected to be high. The estimated output of PTA will reach nearly 4 million tons in February. It is estimated that the cumulative volume of PTA will reach more than 1 million tons in 1-2 months. The PTA social inventory will also exceed the historical high of 2 million tons.

　　 From the perspective of cash flow, Before the Spring Festival, the processing difference of PTA reached 700 yuan / ton, but with the rapid decline after the Spring Festival, PTA processing rapidly compressed, fell to less than 400 yuan / ton, and the cost of PX purchased before the festival was close to 800 US dollars / ton, and the PTA factory started less willing. Moreover, due to the obstruction of logistics, most of the social inventory was in the PTA factory, and the PTA factory cash flow pressure suddenly increased. The rate will go down.

The impact on textile and garment industry is divided into two aspects: domestic demand and external demand.

　　 The impact on domestic demand is more than 03 years. In 19 years, the textile and garment industry is facing the "warm winter" and the domestic demand is obviously frustrated. In the first quarter, the Spring Festival orders are stacked up as the selling season, but the epidemic is stronger than 03 years. The epidemic covers most parts of the country, and has a great influence on the Spring Festival during the traditional consumption season. Meanwhile, the epidemic also has an adverse effect on the demand for spring clothes, which makes the "warm winter". After the reappearance of "cold spring", even the demand for summer clothing is still adversely affected.

In terms of external demand, WHO director general Tan Tak said in January 30th that the outbreak of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus was a "public health emergencies of international concern", but no travel and trade restrictions on China were recommended. There is possibility of transfer and delay from overseas orders. The second round of trade negotiations between China and the United States have not yet begun and the market wait-and-see sentiment is still alive. The sudden outbreak of the outbreak will aggravate the market's cautious mood.

The impact on domestic clothing consumption demand

Although clothes are necessities of life, the basic physiological needs of warmth and shelter have been weakened, and more are psychological needs. They are aesthetic, flaunting, scene needs and conformity needs. The demand for clothing consumption is decreasing in the short term. After all, who should wear a mask to go out and look more beautiful? Moreover, more time to stay at home, a pajamas joker.

Under the epidemic situation, according to Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, short-term consumer preferences are changing and the demand for safety is ahead of schedule. In the short term, consumer spending on safety protection, medical devices, insurance and food industry has increased.

In the short term, tourism, entertainment, catering, hotels, department stores and traditional manufacturing industries will have a greater impact, which is bound to affect consumers' incomes, consumers' income expectations are falling, and consumer spending on clothing will naturally decrease.

During the period after the end of the epidemic, consumption will generally be retaliatory rebounding, optimistic analysis, clothing consumption will also rise in stages, disasters will affect people's consumption view to a certain extent, and improve consumers' pursuit of health, aesthetics and quality life. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the Sichuan market quickly became the focus of every industry to seize the market. People who experienced and felt close to the disaster were more willing to spend.

Impact on inventory digestion in winter

The purchase and sale cycle of clothing is usually ordered, goods sold and cleared, and inventory is divided into production end inventory and circulation end inventory. During the Spring Festival, it is an important time node for winter clothing inventory digestion.

Inventory is profit, and digestion is the cash flow, which is the new purchase money in the next quarter.

The increase of inventory will generate time cost and opportunity cost, reduce cash turnover rate, waste manpower and material resources, occupy warehouse and increase management cost. The depreciation rate of stocks is amazing, and the value of goods is less than half a year.

Under the epidemic situation, the winter clothing clearance "perfect" missed the Spring Festival time. Conservatively estimated that in the circulation channel, the inventory in 2019 was more than 10% higher than that in 2018, while the net profit margin of the garment industry was around 10%.

Impact on spring clothing sales

According to regional differences, the new time for spring clothes is 1-3 months in the South and 2-4 in the north. For the offline channel providers, the spring clothes are basically on the shelves before the year. For the electricity supplier, the pictures have been put on the shelves before that year, that is, the stock has been in their warehouse, according to Chinese customs, the money was basically cleared before the Spring Festival.

The marketing plan and promotion plan under the line has already been made, and many marketing budgets have also been spent. The focus of doing business is spring products, and the cost of major investment and photography has been spent. The promotion cost of the main push has been put into practice. Taking Tmall as an example, advertising expenses account for 10% to 20% of total sales.

In line with the channel, in 2-3 months, consumers will not basically shop before the epidemic is lifted. After the epidemic is lifted, panic will continue for some time. The spring time of spring consumption is only one month, so the sales of spring clothes will go down sharply.

In the case of the electricity supplier, before the epidemic was lifted, it was the same with the line. After the epidemic was lifted, the share of the offline market would be partly transferred to the line, which was better than the offline days, but it was only a "dot".

The increase in spring clothing inventory indirectly affects the production and circulation of autumn clothing. The reason is very simple.

Impact on summer wear sales

The core selling time of summer clothing is 4-6 months, and 7-8 months digested inventory. From the point of time, the impact of the epidemic on the offline sales in summer is mainly in the early stage. However, the downward trend of the economy, coupled with the decline in the demand for consumers, is a definite decline in the summer sales in offline channels.

The main reason for the delay in online channels is filming. Many electric products were shot in batches in February. Under the epidemic, the share below the line will be transferred to a part of the line, coupled with the retaliatory rebound of consumption after the outbreak, the summer is a good period for the electricity supplier.