Facing The Epidemic Situation, How Can We Quickly Recover The Lost Capacity?

After entering the post epidemic stage, how can we quickly remediate the capacity lost due to the outbreak after the enterprises have resumed production? Combined with the trend of epidemic situation, the process of starting, resuming and grabbing production during the post epidemic period is divided into five stages. Each stage carries out in-depth analysis of its characteristics and problems, and formulates effective strategies and corresponding measures.
In 2020, a sudden outbreak made the world's manufacturing center press the pause key for decades. Enterprises start in fear and trembling. They also resume production on thin ice. If they do not start, what will the order capacity do? How about risk management? How can the production capacity be remedied quickly after the resumption of production?
When I first received this topic, I was a designated proposition made by a partner in manufacturing service for many years. To tell you the truth, when I first heard this theme, I first came across it. At present, the epidemic has not yet been over, and a large number of articles, opinions and products related to the epidemic have been flooded. What is the "XXXX" under the epidemic situation? These products which are difficult to sell through national difficulties make me feel uncomfortable. So when my partner put this theme on to me, I didn't actually accept it at the very beginning.
However, this partner further lobbied me, he said, we must take this as a subject to look at. Now the situation facing factories is very serious, not to start is waiting for death, but after the resumption of production, how to quickly remedies and increase production capacity is also a problem that must be solved. To provide enterprises with practical guidance and help in this area, this is precisely the real matter of making profits, profits and profits.
With this in mind, I realize that this is indeed a responsibility. It is true that when the enterprise starts to work, facing such a current situation, how to rapidly increase efficiency and increase production to remedy the capacity of the loss of the epidemic becomes very critical, which is related to the survival and survival of enterprises. Then, I paid special attention to the Internet related viewpoints, articles and questionnaires on the epidemic period. I found that basically all the analysis and suggestions about the macro level, such as the analysis of the market economic environment and financial countermeasures, there are not many tools for the effective management of the manufacturing industry. As a career consultant who has been engaged in lean manufacturing and plant efficiency for many years, I feel obliged to sort out the solutions for our manufacturing enterprises to recover quickly and increase their capacity after the outbreak.

According to the current epidemic situation, and the future development trend, combined with the basic laws of enterprises and markets, I have divided into five stages for the enterprises to start production during the post epidemic period.

Next, I will describe in detail the characteristics and problems of each stage in this five stage, and then formulate feasible strategies and solutions for each stage.
The first stage: trial construction period.
The trial period is from February 10th to February 16th (that is, the second week in February). This stage can also be defined as the wait-and-see period and the anxiety period.
This time is the first window for the country to set up. The commencement of this period has the following characteristics and problems:
1. commencement of operation:
Only a few enterprises try to start business in this window period. The initial investigation is around 45%. First, because the epidemic situation is still grim, the enterprises are more cautious; secondly, they are under the control of the examination and approval, and the factories that have not been approved can not start easily. The factory is relatively anxious at this stage whether it is started or not started.
2. employment situation:
Although some enterprises have started work, workers still can not return. Road closure, village closure, persuasion, refusal, residence registration, residence and isolation time are the major difficulties leading to the resumption of work. The number of people returning to work outside this week is relatively small, even if there are a small number of people returning to the cities. In this stage, enterprises usually start with local staff or employees who are not out of town during the Spring Festival. The actual number of workers in the enterprise is around 40%.
3. production situation:
The enterprises at this stage start to organize and explore the mode of safe production, such as how to effectively isolate and disinfect. With the irregular production line, the efficiency and capacity of production are very low, and can only be started production.
The strategy of the first period is very simple. In simple terms, it is the seven word "start and grab the foundation".
To start work is to seize production: what does that mean? To start work is to start work. At this stage, the goal is not how much output. If we start the work and start the production line and equipment, it will be equivalent to a week or even more capacity. The value of commencement is far greater than the value of quantity.
To start work is to lay the foundation: of course, the construction and production need to meet policy and safety requirements, and at this stage, the production system will start operation. The foundation is to complete the basic work of safety production at this stage when workers are not in good condition.
There are many specific practices, but when considering the release of this article, more than half of this week has passed, so there is not much to say.
The second stage: scale start up period.
The scale commencement period is between 17 and 23 February (that is, third weeks in February).
This period is the second window for enterprises to start work. During this period, the peak of the epidemic is over, and the overall risk is greatly reduced. A large number of factories will start production. This period starts with the following characteristics:
1. commencement of operation:
After a week of wait-and-see, anxiety and hard work, most of the factories will start this week. The main reason is that the epidemic has really improved, and the policy level will encourage or require enterprises to start production. Enterprises expected to start this stage will reach more than 85%.
2. employment situation:
At present, nearly 150 million of the reworkers in the country continue to return, but also face the active isolation after returning to the city. The people who returned to town last week will continue to add to the production line, but the staff gap at this stage is still relatively large.
3. production situation:
At this stage, the operation rate of the production line of the factory is still not high, and it is expected to increase to about 60%. On the one hand, because of the segregation cycle of employees returning to the city, on the other hand, the market recruitment has just started, with a small floating population, which can add to the limited number of new employees. The production capacity of enterprises is very heavy.
The key to the second stage of remedial measures is "re production, energy storage and production protection".
The resumption of production means that the whole line of the production line is truly activated, and that means ensuring that there is a certain capacity reserve. How can we ensure the production volume? There are several ways:
1., we must protect the line and not protect the factory: what does that mean? If a workshop has a N assembly line, then it is better to increase the percentage of seats for a line or a few production lines, and not to scatter people to N production lines all over the world. So there are several things to do at this time:
To ensure the full production rate of the production line, what is the percentage of full seats? For assembly line, the rate of occupancy is the rate of satisfaction of production according to standard staffing, just like the attendance rate of movie theater. It is better to keep several lines of efficient production rather than to make N lines unable to fully open. At this time, we should try to break the Department walls between organizations so that people can flow and organize smoothly. Achieve rapid reorganization of personnel formation, improve the percentage of seats.
Adjust the appropriate production rhythm, try to use a small production line, or slow down the production line rhythm, especially make full use of lean production unit or flexible production line, so that fewer people can improve the percentage of seats.
Employees in this stage are basically skilled workers in factories, and they must play the role of skilled employees and multi skilled workers. For thousands of days, one day for soldiers.
2. production planning: at this stage, the PMC production plan needs to be adjusted, and the operation results of ERP system can not be mechanically executed. The results can be simply pushed to the production workshop, and some reasonable artificial intervention and trade-offs should be made according to the specific circumstances of the enterprise.
(I) adjust the order priority arrangement appropriately, in order to ensure the efficient production of the first wave workers, and prioritize larger orders in large quantities without affecting the total delivery time. Perhaps, based on the current situation, you have to consider the trade-offs of small orders.
Taking into account the backlog of orders in the early stage of delayed start up, the planners should make reasonable batch production, that is, the integrated production arrangement of the product family, so as to reduce switching and improve the efficiency of the first wave workers.
ERP optimization of production scheduling, PMC production planners must be proficient in production capacity and do some necessary manual intervention, including system optimization and flexibility plan.
3. operation mode adjustment: as we all know, lean manufacturing is pursuing single piece production, and organizing production as far as possible in zero inventory or zero inventory. However, in this special case, we still can not apply mechanically, and understand flexibility.
The principle of maximum labor force: at this stage, because the manpower and production of each process are not completely balanced, then, in order not to waste valuable manpower, we should properly store the capacity in key processes. To be frank, we should appropriately enlarge the WIP inventory among the processes so as to maximize the utilization of labor force.
To relax the WIP inventory standard, we can adjust to the above plan mode and batch production, and then we can appropriately exchange for a larger mass production.
However, bear in mind that the above measures are expedient measures in the special period, and some practices must not be solidified into a lasting mode. In the fifth stage of the definition of this article, we should resolutely restore standards.
The formal commencement date is from 24 to February 28th February (that is, the fourth week of February).
At this stage, the epidemic is coming to an end, and social life is coming to normal as a whole. The commencement of this period has the following characteristics:
1. commencement of operation:
At this stage, almost all enterprises need to start 100%, including most of the service industries.
2. employment situation:
The employment of enterprises is divided into three categories. The first type is the employees who have planned to return to factories in the Central Plains of China (which is referred to as class a employees). After they have passed the isolation cycle, they expect more than 90% of this stage to be added to production. The second category is the new recruits (which are referred to as B employees). This stage has officially launched another campaign of HR recruiting and robbing people. The third type is the dispatched worker of the labor service company (this is called C employee). Whether enterprises can recover the loss capacity of the epidemic in the later stage is very critical for the complement of the second kinds of people.
3. production situation:
With the large number of employees returning to factories, the factory's production start up rate can reach more than 80%, but the pressure of capacity recovery is still relatively large, reaching 70%. This is due to the superposition of the upstream and downstream processes in the early stage, and on the other hand, it may be affected by the supply chain, especially the global supply chain. Of course, the efficiency of new workers has not yet come up. Therefore, the focus of this stage is how to restore the normal production capacity before.
The key word of this stage of recovery is: precise and quick fix.
Due to the large number of workers' complement, including the old workers and the new employees, at this stage, we must resolutely carry out the second stage strategic plan, and we should do the following work:
1. for class a employees: we must accurately grasp the time for class a employees to return to work. Then, in accordance with the above principles, we must do well in job planning and work arrangement.
2. for employees of category B and C, HR departments should promptly conduct market recruitment actions, and production workshops should synchronize staff skills training. I do not elaborate on specific practices. But as long as we grasp a principle, we will soon be able to recruit quickly and replenish labor force. If we miss this golden opportunity, no one can help you.
3. the most ideal and radical goal and result is to complement staff at this stage.
This stage starts in March.
In March, except for a few serious disaster areas, the epidemic was almost over. Social life and industrial production returned to normal. The commencement of this period has the following characteristics:
1. commencement of operation:
Except for bankruptcy, 100% of all trades and professions are doing normal work at this stage.
2. employment situation:
Class a employees basically rework 100%. In the whole March, it is a period when enterprises replenish B and C employees. The factory's production system will also replenish a large number of new employees. One thing that can be audacious is that in 2020, the employment situation of the factory will be generally optimistic. On the one hand, the income will decrease during the epidemic period. Secondly, some of the third industries will release part of the workforce.
3. production situation:
The operation system of the production gradually returned to normal. The factory's production operation, system collaboration, supply ecology and so on entered the comprehensive operation. The factory's emphasis was on the production standard management, the efficiency and the production capacity reached about 90% of the normal standard, and the loss was mainly caused by the new employees. At this time, some conscious and well prepared enterprises began to start a new round of improvement work.
The key of this stage is to improve the capacity of production.
If the epidemic does not fluctuate, the work in March can start normal. However, the real distance between different enterprises is precisely this stage. Because the above three stages of the strategic plan, can only recover the loss of the capacity of about 30%, really to enable the factory to recover the loss of the capacity of the epidemic, then we must launch rapid improvement activities in March to raise the capacity to a new height.
How to increase production capacity? Nothing more than two ways:
1. to increase hardware configuration, such as increasing equipment and production line, etc., this practice is clearer than mine. However, at this stage, it is difficult for you to purchase equipment, because everyone has capacity constraints, and the purchase cycle is also there.
2. the best way to improve production efficiency is to initiate quick improvement activities at this stage to improve production efficiency of existing hardware and personnel. In particular, the following key points should be addressed:
Introduce lean improvement: lean production can help enterprises to improve their production efficiency. At this stage, smart enterprises must launch lean projects at this stage, increase the intensity of improvement, and quickly improve efficiency and productivity. I believe that many enterprises have planned to start lean transformation at the end of 2019. At this time, don't hesitate to miss the opportunity.
The implementation of "improvement week": improvement week is the most efficient organization improvement mode in the world. It can achieve breakthroughs in a specific area within a week, for example, the production efficiency of the assembly line is increased by 30%, and the equipment efficiency is increased by 30%.
First, the first thing to do is to start a smart operation. In March, we started the lean transformation, implemented the improvement week, and quickly increased the efficiency and productivity. With the help of improvement, we recovered the capacity of the epidemic loss in the following 2020.
This stage starts in April.
In April, when the epidemic passed and everything returned to normal, the factory would exhibit the following characteristics:
1. business system:
The sales and business activities of enterprises are entering the stage of intense heat, presenting a wave of demand and order upgrades.
2. management system:
The management reform of the factory has been fully launched. Part of the management reform is a continuation of the strategy at the end of 2019, and some management changes are based on the adjustment of the epidemic situation.
3. production system:
The operation of the entire plant is running at a high speed, and the driving force and pressure to increase production capacity are unprecedented. In order to make up for the loss of the epidemic and achieve the original 2020 goals, lean production, equipment automation, information intelligence and so on, as long as the means to improve the production capacity will accelerate the import. At this stage, the sooner the realization of efficiency and production, the more conducive to the realization of the 2020 strategic goals.
The key words in this stage of remedial measures are: improving in all aspects and creating brilliance again.
In the 2020 quarter of second, the response is rather simple. In the three stage of the second, third, fourth above, if the work is not done at any stage, it is necessary to fill the previous lesson. If the first three stages are done well, your company will enter a new round of comprehensive improvement. In 2020, you can basically rest assured.
Well, the characteristics, problems and Countermeasures of the above five stages are analyzed. At the end of this paper, I will comb out the solutions to remedial capacity and increase production capacity.
From the above five stages, we can roughly estimate the capacity recovery and capacity climb of the epidemic. We can make a slightly sensible estimate that the loss of plant capacity to the plant involves four levels of loss:
1. The net loss of capacity caused by delayed start, with an average loss of 14 days.
Two. The loss of working hours of class a employees is delayed, and the average loss is 7 days of production capacity.
Three.BC class employees postponed additional capacity loss, with an average loss of 7 days (excluding one overlay).
Four. Losses caused by the first, second stage system coordination are expected to lose 5 days of production capacity (excluding the superposition of one).
Five. Other losses are not counted.

The above five factors lead to loss of capacity for at least 30 days. If the company fails to take effective measures in the future, the annual loss will be very significant.

In this capacity loss analysis chart, the red line is the productivity curve that does not take effective improvement measures after the epidemic. The green line is that if there is no curve of the improvement measures without the epidemic situation, the shadow part in the middle, you will see the loss of production capacity.

Next, I will further analyze the forecast of productivity and efficiency after taking positive measures in this paper. Blue lines can take corresponding effective measures after the outbreak, especially the lean productivity improvement curve. You will see that after taking positive measures, the trend of the three trends is very different. The shadow part of the middle is the ability to save the coming capacity. As long as you can save the productivity back and lose the capacity, you win.

The five stage after the resumption of operation is the five battle. If you can follow the measures mentioned above, I believe that your company can achieve very satisfactory results in 2020.

Finally, we hope that the epidemic will be over as soon as possible, and hope that your enterprises will overcome the impact of the epidemic as soon as possible. Bless the motherland, bless you!

The authorship of Yu Weihui is authorized to forward.