Polyester Stock Market Saturation: PTA Stock Breakthrough 2 Million Tons, Polyester Filament Stock Close To 30 Days!

In recent days, the cloth bosses in the circle of friends are busy filling in the application for re employment, and finally have to go back to work. Even if the workers in the factory do not come, the sales department can always open, and the market has finally shown signs of progress.

The outbreak of the outbreak, the market has put down the pause key, some factories have even stopped work for 2 months, all orders are in a state of stagnation, but anxious is not just cloth boss, upstream polyester industry is exploded.

As the downstream weaving market has been closed for nearly two months, the upstream polyester market is still in operation during the Spring Festival, so during this period, the stock market of polyester market has reached a state of nearly saturation.

PTA stock exceeded 2 million tons

Up to now, PTA social circulation stock has exceeded 2 million tons, to 2 million 265 thousand tons, has reached nearly 4 years of high inventory.

The main reason for the continuous increase in PTA inventory is the continued downtime of the downstream weaving Market. During the Spring Festival, the load of the PTA plant remained at 70%, but the downstream polyester plant had dropped to around 60%. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, PTA inventory was accumulated.

At the recent stage, PTA manufacturers have opened up the inspection and maintenance plan: the 900 thousand tons PTA plant of PW petrochemical company plans to stop maintenance in February 20th; Han Bang Petrochemical Company 1#70 10000 tons PTA device repair in February 3rd, 2#22 million tons PTA device repair in February 14th; Hengli Petrochemical million tons PTA device reduced to half a negative row.

The device overhaul or to a certain extent alleviate the supply pressure of the PTA market, but in the long run, there is still a new PTA installation plan in 2020. On the other hand, because the workers in the downstream weaving mill are not all in place, the load upgrade will take some time to recover. During this time, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory. The pressure of PTA market is not small in 2020.

Glycol stocks bottomed out

So far, the main port of ethylene glycol has risen to 730 thousand tons, close to the inventory level since last September.

In fact, since the second half of 2019, glycol has a good fundamentals, and has been in the inventory channel, and the inventory effect is significant. Low inventory is supporting the glycol market rising continuously. Especially in the two months of the end of the year, the East China port of ethylene glycol was closed due to weather reasons. The shipping arrivals were slow, the actual arrival volume was reduced, and the cash flow in the field was tight. Therefore, in the middle of December, the inventory of the main port of ethylene glycol in East China dropped to about 394 thousand tons, which was refreshed in the year.

However, since the beginning of the Spring Festival, as the downstream polyester factories have been overhauled, glycol has begun to enter the tired inventory stage. After that, the weaving factory has not yet resumed work due to the epidemic situation, and ethylene glycol has accumulated a continuous storage cycle.

At the same time, due to the maintenance of many ethylene glycol units, the average weekly operating rate of ethylene glycol was around 75% as of last week. Although there is a certain decrease, the load is not low. And constant force 1#90 million tons / year ethylene glycol unit and constant force 2#90 million tons / year device has been put into operation in February, and after discharge, ethylene glycol supply is increased again, plus the recent logistics disruption, port shipments are not ideal, and the possibility of continuous storage will increase.

Polyester stocks remain high

In 2019, the polyester industry has been plagued by the high inventory situation. The average stock of the polyester plant has reached a maximum of 24 days, plus the previous year's wave to the stock market. The stock of the polyester plant is still in a higher position until the Spring Festival holiday.

According to the statistics of China's silk net in late January, the overall stock market in the polyester market is concentrated in 11-20 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are available for 5-8 days, and FDY stocks are close to 9-14 days, while DTY stocks are about 16-21 days.

But after a continuous Spring Festival inventory, the current data show that POY stock has risen to about 16 days, FDY stock rose to about 17 days, DTY stock rose to 28 days.

The price of polyester filament has been on the decline in 2019, and the price has picked up slightly at the end of the year. But now the polyester factory stock is "exploding". Under the high pressure, the price of polyester filament has been lowered. With the price down, polyester cash flow will be further compressed.

The stock market has been in urgent demand. Fortunately, downstream weaving has begun to resume, and inventory is expected to be eased to a certain extent. But we should not be too hasty. Under the influence of the epidemic, it will take some time for the weaving factory to increase its load, and the market will still have a fluctuating process.