A Shares Have Been Trading For More Than One Trillion, Opening Up "Bull Market" Daydream Growth Stocks And Coming Back After Four Years.

In the spring of 2020, the people of the whole country waited for the epidemic to be retreated at home. In recent weeks, the strong trend of A shares, especially the gem, has largely dispelled the negative emotions of shareholders staying indoors.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics, from February 3rd A shares resume trading so far (February 21st), the Shanghai Composite Index successfully recovered the February 3rd day because of the negative emotions of the epidemic, the loss of land, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index rose by 8.8% and 15.5% respectively. If the February 3rd slump was eliminated, the whole market would be even more alarming.

At the same time, the trading activity of A shares has gradually increased. According to the statistics of Wind, the turnover volume of the two cities in February 3rd was about 500 billion, and then the volume of business rose all the way. In February 19th, the three trading days all broke through the trillion mark.

All signs seem to indicate that the potential bull market has started.

For this wave of market, Cai Zhiwei, the manager of the gem index fund, thinks that the sixth bull market of the A share market has been launched in 2019, and the epidemic situation may not change the trend of A share bull market.

According to his statistics, the definition of bull market at home and abroad generally shows that the bull market is more than 30%. In 2019, although the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 22%, the average share of the 800 stocks in the stock market that covered the market mainly increased by 35%, while the average yield of the public offering fund was also up. 45%, the third highest level in history, second only to the bull market in 2006-2007 years and the bull market in 2009, is equivalent to a 2015 bull market.

However, Wind data show that from the past week, the main source of capital flows to the industry, a net outflow of about 70000000000 yuan. Among them, the net outflow of materials and biopharmaceuticals exceeded 15 billion yuan; in addition, the semiconductor, food and beverage sectors also flowed out, and only a plurality of financial sectors and other sectors entered a large scale of over about 8000000000 yuan. Overall, although the market is rising all the way, the number of net outflows is much more than that of net inflows.

Multiple positive factors resonance

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of new era securities, believes that this wave of A shares is the result of many factors resonance during the epidemic.

He told reporters that there are five positive signals: "one is from the central bank to put more liquidity, is conducive to the rebound of the capital market; two, the resumption of progress is accelerating, the impact of the epidemic on the performance of listed companies will gradually reduce after the return to work; three, the growth performance of listed companies is better, especially in the TMT, electronics, communications, semiconductor and other industries to usher in the outbreak of the performance, supporting. The further rebound of the market; four, the government is actively introducing relevant policies, such as the introduction of new regulations for refinancing, and the promulgation of the new securities law, which is conducive to the good performance and refinancing of listed companies. Five, the golden pit of the black swan incident, such as the epidemic, has attracted the enthusiasm of investors to support the market to go out of a strong rebound in the short term.

Zhang Yulong, chief strategist of CSC, said that in February, ample liquidity was a necessary condition. He pointed out: "at present, the government has adopted a series of measures to effectively control the epidemic situation while implementing a relatively loose monetary policy and a more active fiscal policy for the bottom economy. After the festival, the central bank's open market operation has been substantially put into operation. The interest rate instruments at all levels have cut interest rates by 10 BP, achieving the reduction of interest rates from OMO to MLF, from LPR to real lending rates, and protecting the real economy and small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, in February 14th, the SFC issued a new regulation of refinancing, which significantly relaxed the refinancing conditions of gem, main board and small and medium board listed companies, and relieved the financial pressure of listed companies from the perspective of replenish liquidity. With the liquidity adequacy and policy protection, market risk preferences improved, and the A share market went up quickly on the first day after the sharp adjustment of the epidemic panic, and the Shanghai composite index once again exceeded 3000 points.

In view of the recent market performance, Cai Zhiwei believes that in recent years, both the macro environment, liquidity, regulatory policies, and the profitability and valuation level of gem have been greatly improved.

From the perspective of liquidity, he believes that since 2019, the global policy has shifted to loose, the Federal Reserve has continuously cut interest rates; domestic monetary policy has also turned loose, and the central bank has been dropping the benchmark for four times in a row. Social integration has bottomed out at the end of 2019, and the yield of the current 10 year treasury bond has broken 3%. At the same time, we expect to reduce interest rates in 2020.

In addition, from the basic point of view, A shares are also fully recovering. Cai Zhiwei analysis said: "A share growth enterprise except storm group, 794 companies have all disclosed annual report notice. According to the published data, the net profit of the gem annual report was 65 billion 990 million yuan, up 68.37% from the same period last year, which not only accelerated the growth rate, but also improved substantially compared with the previous few quarters.

Continue to be optimistic about technology growth stocks

Reporters and many market participants found that the market generally believed that the structural market trend has started, but because of the impact of the epidemic on different industries, the performance of the market is also split. In general, most market views are optimistic about the future trend of A shares, especially after the performance of technology growth stocks.

Pan Xiangdong said: "in the future, the A share market will go out of a wave of structural bull market under the background of continuous inflow of funds in the medium and long term, especially the registration system will be implemented in the gem, which will promote the gem and Shenzhen stock index to continue to record high. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic on the economic fundamentals. Some of the industries that are more affected need to be avoided, and at the same time, as the market rebounded, The growth sector with stronger profitability and higher dividend yield will be more favored by long-term funds. "

Cai Zhiwei also believes that the impact of the epidemic on the industry is divided. He said: "due to the reduction of residents' travel, the consumption industry such as catering, tourism, theaters, aviation, high-speed rail and liquor basically stopped or dropped sharply, for example, the passenger rate of aviation and high-speed rail dropped by 80%, and the epidemic had a greater negative impact on these industries. On the other hand, the epidemic has increased the demand for medicine. Meanwhile, the demand for games, online video, distance education and cloud computing has increased as residents stay indoors, the demand for entertainment and games has increased. Generally speaking, technology growth is the main line throughout the whole year, and in the short term, it is less affected by the epidemic and even benefited from the epidemic, while the traditional consumption sector is significantly damaged, so there is a structural opportunity for technological growth. "

Based on this judgment, Cai Zhiwei is bold enough to predict that the second bull market of GEM has already set sail. He told reporters: "after 4 years of adjustment, both macroeconomic environment, liquidity, regulatory policies, and the level of profitability and valuation of gem have been greatly improved. The bull market of the current gem has already been opened, and the market is expected to remain strong under the leadership of the gem. In addition, even if there is a phased pullback in the market, it is expected that the magnitude will not be very large. After the bull market starts, it will not be easily terminated unless there is a major turning point in policy or fundamental aspects.

In fact, looking back at this round of market is undoubtedly the carnival of growth stocks, and some stocks of technology growth sector even hit a new high. How should we understand the growth stocks market?

Lv Yuechao, deputy director of the Ministry of public interest and investment, told reporters: "although the recent growth style is stronger, the growth of technology growth stocks is still in its early stage in the long run. Whether it is looking back on history or analyzing the background of the current era, there will undoubtedly be more opportunities for the growth of technology sector. In this big logic, we will not care too much about short-term fluctuations; in the face of major strategic opportunities, there is not much need to care too much about short-term games, which will miss the historical opportunities of industrial development.

Lv Yuechao further explained: "historically, the last growth style bull market was from 2012 to 2015, behind which is the dividend of mobile Internet innovation wave, which lasted for 4 years. In 2019, we can be regarded as the first year of 5G. From the perspective of industrial logic of "Guan Du Yun", it is still in the stage of developing from "management" to "end" and "cloud", and future investment opportunities are endless. On the other hand, the attraction of technology growth sector lies in change. With the development of industry, more new technologies, new applications and even subversive business models will be brought. These maps to the capital market, that is, on the one hand, the overvalued values currently considered may be digested by the rapid growth of the future; on the other hand, there will be more high-quality targets that will lead to the continuous improvement of the whole sector, which is actually not the same as the core asset "strong and strong" logic.

?